NATIONAL 6 -(Spotlight Weekly)]

Vulnerable Battlefield

Nepal could find itself caught in cyber warfare waged by regional rivals without being able to do anything about it

By AKSHAY SHARMA

The aftermath the September 11 attacks on the United States has created psychological scars in nations around the world. The period has also focused attention on the need to be prepared for newer technologically driven forms of warfare. Precariously perched in a region that has become a hotbed of instability, Nepal could soon find itself caught in cyber warfare triggered by regional rivalries.

The head of Taiwan's Defense Ministry's Information and Communications Bureau, Lt. Lin Chin-ching, announced that Taiwan had categorized about 1,000 computer viruses, which could be used to counter a Chinese electronic attack, the British Broadcasting Corporation reported earlier this year. But China's limited information infrastructure may work to its advantage in a confrontation with Taiwan, which is more computer-dependent. The threat of electronic mutually assured destruction may prove to be a counterproductive strategy because the sector of Chinese infrastructure most vulnerable to attack is highly linked to Taiwan's own economic well-being.

In May 1999, Taiwanese Defense Minister Tang Fei announced the establishment of an information warfare research and training taskforce in response to growing concern over China's development of information and electronic warfare capabilities. In last November's defense budget debate, Tang emphasized Taiwan's need to improve its defenses against missile attacks and to develop its information warfare capabilities.

In fact, these two areas are thought to be at the core of Taiwan's next five-year military modernization program (2001-2005). Following the 1991 Gulf War, China initiated a full-scale campaign to develop its information warfare capability at the strategic, operational and tactical levels as part of its overall military modernization effort.

According a recent US government report, "Selected Military Capabilities of the People's Republic of China", the PLA only recently modernized its automated command and control system and is developing a new kind of computerized field communications system. Moreover, China's civilian infrastructure relies little on computer systems.

Though China ranked as the 10th country with the most computers, according to a 1997 Computer Industry Almanac survey, when measured in per capita use, only about one in every 10 Chinese has access to a computer. This is significantly smaller than Taiwan, which is estimated as having computer access for one out of every three citizens.

Despite China's relative weakness in the computer sector, a Taiwanese counterattack may prove counter-productive. The portions of the Chinese economy most affected in the event of a Taiwanese counterattack would be the parts that are more integrated to the rest of the world, hence more technologically dependent. The most notable sectors are tied to the import and export of goods, especially computer-related products. This directly affects Taiwan.

In April 1999, Janet Matthews Information Services Country Risk Report reported that due to a low-cost production base in China, nearly 30 percent of Taiwanese computer-related products are manufactured in mainland China. With this in mind, a Taiwanese counterattack would, in fact, endanger Taiwanese-owned and operated computer businesses inside of China.

Taiwan ranks only behind Japan and the United States as a source of net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), although FDI in China fell in 1998 to $36.7 billion, down from $41.7 billion in 1997. If Taiwan were to initiate an electronic attack against China, it would be tantamount to shooting itself in the foot. It may prove less harmful for the Chinese military or civilian infrastructure than toward computer-orientated Taiwanese businesses in China.

The way events are unfolding, we can expect a similar battle in Nepal, traditionally described as a yam between two boulders. There have been reports of "E-supadies" where Indian officials have accused Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence as sponsoring such attacks into Indian technical community. During the recent "Tehelka.com" scandal, Indian authorities maintained that one of the suspects plotting to kill the editor of the website was operating from Nepal-India border town of Birgunj.

"Having become the focus of countries like America and India, Nepal is a more crucial and a perfect battleground for the forces that are against the ideology of China, Nepal may also become a staging ground for countries battling each other on the Internet," says a security analyst. A wake-up call indeed for our IT and security planners.