COVER STORY (Spotlight Weekly)

THE GODAVARI TALKS
Where Will It Lead To?

The first ever talks between the government and Maoist rebels concluded in Lalitpur in a cordial atmosphere. But as the rebels continue to raise their agenda beyond the jurisdiction of the country's constitution ó could a lasting peace be found? It will all depend on who are there behind the Maoists and what they really want?

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

Frantic movements were going on right from early morning in and around the Godavari Village Resort in Lalitpur district, 12 km northeast of Kathmandu, last Thursday (August 30). Senior ministers and other members of the negotiating team arrived at the luxurious resort at 8:30. After knowing that the Maoist delegates for talks had not arrived by then, they decided to utilize the time to chalk out an outline for the talks over cups of steaming tea or coffee.

Maoist leader : In the spotlight

At around the same time, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba was receiving congratulations from the Maoist leader, Comrade Prachanda, on assuming office a month back and inviting the rebels for talks, through his emissary Krishna Bahadur Mahara. At his erstwhile contact office at New Baneswore, which he used as a dissident leader, Deuba welcomed the three-member Maoist negotiating team and assured them that the government was really sincere toward finding a negotiated settlement to the 66-month-old insurgency that has already claimed more than 1,800 lives.

Back at the prime minister's official residence at Baluwatar, ruling Nepali Congress leaders were busy discussing a ceiling for the proposed land reforms program. When asked about the outcome of the talks that was taking place around the same time a few kms away, NC general secretary Sushil Koirala said, "First, let's know about their agenda. The party will give its opinion only after discussing the issue."

As soon as the Maoist negotiating team, including Agni Sapkota and Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, arrived at Kailash building of the resort at 9:20 a. m., the team of government negotiators led by Minister for Physical Planning and Works Chiranjivi Wagle greeted them. After introduction and a few words by one of the two facilitators, human rights activist Padma Ratna Tuladhar, they sat for formal talks at Kailash Bhavan (See: Box).

Maoist leader Mahara(in the middel) returning after talks: Felling the pulse of the government

A joint statement issued at the end of the meeting said both the sides had agreed to continue the dialogue with a view to "resolve all the problems in a peaceful way." They also agreed to hold second round of talks within two weeks. Though the date and venue for the next round of talks are yet to be decided, the Maoist party has already proposed to hold second and third round of talks in its stronghold in mid-western district of Rolpa and Kathmandu on September 10 and September 25 respectively.

"The talks were held in a very cordial manner," said Wagle. " I am optimistic that the talks will be able to find a peaceful solution."

The Maoist leaders, too, were equally upbeat. Addressing a huge rally in the mid-western town of Nepalgunj later the same day, Mahara said his party had put forward the proposal of forming of an interim government, formulating a new constitution and making Nepal a 'republic' as demands during the talks.

"The government did not put forward its side," Mahara said. He warned that the Maoist party could resume offensive activities if the government cheated them in the course of talks. "A new way out could be found as per the people's expectations if the 'old regime' did not hatch conspiracies," he added.

Though the first round of talks did not formally enter into the Maoist agenda, it was more symbolic in nature. "Now people's hopes for peace are soaring," said Madan Mani Dixit, an academic and writer. "The civil society must pressurize both the sides to find a peaceful settlement however long it might take."

Even after a week, people are finding it hard to believe that the rebels have finally agreed to sit for peace talks with the government against which they had unilaterally raised arms only six years back. More so, at a time when they were registering military victories one after another against the demoralized and ill-equipped police force in different parts of the country.

"Nowhere in the world, the revolutionary Maoist rebels have sit for talks with the government in such an easy way," said Tuladhar. "It is a very positive development that Nepali revolutionary communists have agreed to come to the table of talks."

People in the street : Red welcome

But people in the government as well as in the opposition are still skeptical about the Maoists' real intention. Many believe that the Maoist leadership is utilizing the month-old truce to avoid a direct confrontation with the Royal Nepalese Army and re-group and re-arrange its movement. The party has been organizing huge mass meetings and has proposed one in the capital on September 21, raising 'donations' forcibly and launching publicity campaigns. The party has been able to move its guerrillas and arms from one place to another as part of its bigger strategy during this period, sources said.

For the Maoist strategists, the present situation may be the best to divert the attention of the government and prepare for the final assault. " The Maoists believe that the time has come for them to enter into the phase of 'strategic stalemate' from `strategic defense.' The phases of 'strategic balance,' 'strategic offense' and victory have to be extremely fast and speedy one. For this the party has to make special preparations for in terms of political, military, organizational, technical and information sectors," Pushkar Gautam, a former Maoist commander who renounce the movement and an analyst, wrote in Himal Khabarpatrika ( September 1-15). "The peaceful environment provided by the 'cease fire' will be an appropriate period for the Maoists to make such preparations."

Officials, too, believe that the Maoists might try to use the new found freedom to strengthen their military might. The official negotiation team had requested the Maoists to withdraw their proposed mass meeting in the capital saying that it could be provoked by some unscrupulous elements. Maoist leader, Mahara, however, said the meeting would be a peaceful one. "Why should the government worry when an underground party is holding an open mass meeting?" he asked.

People seeing off the talk team : High expections

Security agencies refuse to buy Mahara's argument. They suspect that the Kathmandu meeting might be used by the underground party as a test to their strategy of combining the 'long-term people's war' into the 'armed mass uprising.' Not only the officials, even the communist opposition have started warning people against the attempts to lead the country toward `regression.' "Attempts are going on to snatch away people's rights established by the people's movement in 1990," said UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal, referring indirectly to the Maoist movement.

Analysts say both the government and Maoists may be considering talks as a matter of tactic only. " By forwarding demands like formation of interim government, a new constitution and institutional development of the republic, which the government can't fulfill, the Maoists seem to be preparing ground for ultimate talks with the King," said former UML lawmaker Shanker Pokhrel. "Both the Maoists and monarchists want now to nullify the utility of changes that resulted as a culmination of the 1990 movement through a referendum on the issue of either republican state or constituent assembly. Both of them believe that they can have a greater role in this way."

According to Pokhrel, the Maoists want a face-to-face dialogue with the force that enjoys power (that is, army). So far, they have been able to check deployment of the army against them. But the way they are opening assaults in all fronts, the monarchists will find it difficult for long to stand in favor of the Maoists and withhold the mobilization of the army.

Agreed Gautam, "It's likely that a sharp division might emerge within that party on the issue of those who favor the talks and those who don't. For the last five years, the Maoists have expanded their force by using 'talks' as a shield. Now it will be pretty difficult for them to return to the forest at a time when the talks are actually going to be held. If they withdraw from talks, they are likely to lose not only the moral support but also even the neutrality of the people."

Those watching recent developments around the region insist that given the geo-strategic importance of Nepal, an armed resurrection could not go for a long, as it would hurt the security interests of her neighbors.

In 1950, Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru brokered a political compromise between then Rana rulers and King Tribhuvan. Known as the Delhi agreement, he forced Nepali Congressóthat was leading a popular movement to overthrow the Rana regime from the Indian territory-- to accept the pact, records late B. P. Koirala in his Atmabrittanta. After late King Mahendra overthrew the democratic polity and introduced the so-called partyless Panchayat system, Nepali Congress twice attempted to wage an armed movement from the Indian territory to overthrow the Panchayat regime. The attempts failed both the times. "You can't be victorious in an armed struggle unless you have a false border," recalls NC leader K. P. Bhattarai in his 'Atma Katha.'

The ultra-left Marxist-Leninists and radical Nepal Janabadi Morcha (NJM) also raised arms against the Panchayat regime. While the King with the help of military crushed the Jhapa movement, inspired by the Naxalite movement in India, the armed movement launched by the NJM disappeared in a mysterious way in the late eighties.

Compared to 1950, India has made tremendous progress both economically and militarily. Ambitious to play a greater role in the global arena, India wants to maintain its supremacy in the region, say analysts. India has become quite sensitive regarding its security interests in Nepal especially among the allegations that the Pakistani intelligence agency, the ISI, is using Nepali soil against India.

So, why does India continue to host the Nepalese insurgent group in its highly sensitive 'chicken neck' region has baffled many? After traveling to Siliguri area bordering Nepal, India and Bangladesh to meet the top Maoist leadership including Comrade Prachanda last fortnight, UML general secretary Madhav Nepal found himself more confused than ever regarding the origin and motive of the Maoist insurgency.

Addressing a meeting of intellectuals at his party's central office at Balkhu Sunday, Nepal blamed that India, the royal palace and even the ruling Nepali Congress to fulfill their own vested interests were using the

Maoists. The main opposition leader suspected that India might be providing certain 'back up' to the Maoist insurgency with a view to keep Nepal under its 'security umbrella.'

"There is enough room for suspicion since Indian TV channels are showing Indian military marching within the Nepali territory and the frequency of high-level Indian dignitaries visiting Nepal has also gone up," he said. Referring to India's forced military intervention in Sri Lanka in the eighties, Nepal said both the royal palace and Nepali Congress could be assisting India in its 'grand design.' The palace may have 'backed up' the Maoists with a view to end the multi-party polity in the country whereas Nepali Congress, too, may have been assisting Maoists to finish off the UML, he added.

While many see major parts of Mr. Nepal's remarks close to reality, others believe that the remarks may have been prompted looking at the danger the entry of Maoists in the mainstream politics posed to the main opposition party. With its armed guerrillas and radical slogan, the Maoists could brush aside the UML in national politics and emerge as the single largest `communist' force in the country.

The emergence of the Maoists as a major political force through the use of sheer violence has become a living reality in the present day Nepali polity. "The Maoist insurgency is neither a cause of relative deprivation prevalent in Nepali society nor the consequence of the public disapproval of the democratic system," writes Prof. Dhruba Kumar, a strategic analyst, in the book "Domestic Conflict and Crisis of Governability in Nepal." "The strength of the Maoist insurgency is much related with the relative weakness of the government."

As the government approached the negotiating table last week, it had very few options to offer to the rebels. "There can be no compromise on the issue of constitutional monarchy," said premier Deuba, even before the talks started. The rebels, on their part, insisted that they couldn't be satisfied unless all of their demandsóincluding the institutional development of republicóare fulfilled.

So, where is the common ground? "Despite such differences, the fact that both the sides have agreed to come to the table of negations shows that some sort of agreement has already taken place at the highest political level," said an analyst. "Some amendment in the present constitution and greater political space to the Maoists could be one such solution."

Will the rebels be satisfied? Those watching latest developments argue that nothing is impossible in the present day Nepalese polity. The CPN (UML) blocked the parliamentary proceedings demanding resignation of Prime Minister GP Koirala for nearly two months this year. As soon as Koirala chose to resign, the parliament not only functioned smoothly, ordinances like Armed Police Force and Local Development (Amendment) were passed smoothly. The Maoist rebels accepted the call by premier Deuba to hold truce within half an hour and are still abiding by it. Premier Deuba announced the program of 'revolutionary' land reforms in the parliament even ignoring the party's manifesto. To win over the terai-based Nepal Sadbhavana Party, he announced early this week that the land reforms would be implemented only after the issue of citizenship is resolved.

"The recent developments in Nepali politics, including the talks between the government and Maoists, is nothing but the stage-managed show. Those who have identified the real actors already know the outcome of such drama," said the analyst.

Will the latest drama result into a lasting peace -- or will that only remain a wishful thinking,? Only time will tell.

FIRST ROUND OF TALKS
Comrades Without Notebooks

By sitting for talks, the Maoists have gained unprecedented publicity and recognition while the government is still adopting the policy of wait and see

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

Though they were fighting to end the bourgeoise parliamentary polity in the country for the last six years, it was a pleasant surprise to see many known faces in the beautifully decorated room of the Godavari resort. A former United People's Front MP, comrade Krishna Bahadur Mahara, had an opportunity to see former Speaker Daman Nath Dhungana, who was one of the two facilitators, after several years. He had also rubbed his shoulders with the chief government negotiator, Chiranjivi Wagle, during the short-lived parliament in the early nineties. His comrades, Agni Sapkota and Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, too, had contested parliamentary elections but had failed to make their way to Singha Durbar.

A day after receiving heroic welcome in Kirtipur adjoining Kathmandu, Mahara and Rayamajhi arrived at the venue for talks on Thursday morning on a jeep with plate no. Ba 3 Cha 4850. Sapkota arrived at the resort and left the venue earlier than his comrades on the jeep with plate no. Ba 2 Cha 839.

The main session of the dialogue concluded between the government and Maoist team without the help of facilitators. During the discussions, Mahara briefed about his party's demands and said the government should release all the Maoist cadres and supporters from the jail, disclose whereabouts of those missing and withdraw fake charges against their cadres. The government side insisted that the Maoists stop use of all kinds of force, show of arms, extortion and like during the period of talks. Both the sides were quite

cordial during their presentation. So much so that Mahara had even asked with the government team if he could use the term `old regime' to refer to the government.

With the mass meetings organized in Nepalgunj and Janakpur the same day, the Maoist negotiators seemed in hurry. They did not have even a notebook to take note of major points discussed during the dialogue. They promised to present formal agenda for talks on behalf of their party in the next round of talks. During the talks, Mahara took the lead and was assisted by his comrades. Interestingly, they were keen to take Mr. Tuladhar into confidence about the crucial issues raised in the negotiations.

The five-member government team included Ministers Mahesh Acharya and Bijay Gachhadar and central committee members Narahari Acharya and Chakra P. Bastola. Most of the members of the government team were informed about their inclusion in the team only previous night. Neither there were any video recording of the talks for the posterity nor were any modern logistics available to support the negotiating team. When the talks ended, Narahari Acharya drafted a joint press statement, which was signed by Wagle and

Mahara from the government and Maoist sides respectively. The statement was later faxed to media from the Prime Minister's Office.

"There have been occasions when human rights organizations have argued for hours while issuing a joint statement. But there did not arise any problem in drafting the statement after the talks," recalled Tuladhar. Both the sides agreed to avoid Maoist demands for interim government and a republican state in the statement. "Throughout the talks, we never felt that we were talking with the people who were launching the armed struggle," recalled another member from the government team.

A former school teacher, Mahara represents the western region while Rayamajhi and Sapkota represented the central and eastern regional units of the underground party. Mahara invited his government counterparts for talks in Rolpa, the undeclared capital of the rebels. The government negotiators said they would inform about the venue and date for the next round of talks later.

By sitting for talks, the Maoists have gained unprecedented publicity and recognition as a political force from the government. The government, on its part, is still adopting the policy of wait and see. Even after a week, the government team was yet to sit for preparing for the next round of talks. As Premier Deuba held all the cards close to his chest, even the members of the government team did not know how they would be presenting the government side with the rebels during the next round of talks.

The prospects of talks have brought high accolades for both the government and the insurgent group. While the government wants to bring the rebels into political mainstream and persuade them to give up arms, the rebels haven't disclosed their real intentions. But, both the sides know very well that the real and decisive battle is still far ahead for them.