NATIONAL 4 - (Spotlight Weekly)

‘It’s Never Too Early To Prepare For An Earthquake’

— AMOD M. DIXIT

In a room of a building with different structures, AMOD M. DIXIT, general secretary of National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET-Nepal), is working on ways of responding to the challenges posed by a possible earthquake. One of the aims of his organization is to develop earthquake-safe communities in Nepal. Professionally a geologist, Dixit also worked under Department of Mines before joining NSET-Nepal. After the establishment of NSET, many programs have been conducted to increase the level of public awareness. Some Nepalese technicians are now supporting efforts to rebuild communities in the western Indian state of Gujarat, which was struck by a massive earthquake earlier this year. Dixit spoke to KESHAB POUDEL and BHAGIRATH YOGI at his office in Baneshwor following the publication of a study in the US journal "Science" by American geologist Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado. Excerpts:

In a recent study, American geologist Roger Bilham of the University of Colorado has disclosed that a big earthquake is overdue in South Asia. How do you view the report?

In his report, Roger Bilham discusses the seismic vulnerability south of the Himalayas. If we see matters in totality, the report consists of predictions we already knew. The study is an elaboration of widely circulated version of seismic activities of the region. Bilham analyzes some new facts to support his arguments. Mainly his report is based on two things. First, his study is based on the new Geographical Position System satellite data of the Himalayas. Second, it is a re-examination of the region’s seismic history over the past 300 years. On this basis, he has produced five points. He studied the greatest collision between the Indian and Eurasian plates. According to the study, the Indian tectonic plate is ramming northward against the Eurasian plate. The Eurasian plate progresses 2 centimeters per year. This process produces elastic strain. Eventually the rock must fracture, allowing the Indian plate to lurch northward beneath the Himalayas. This will take the form of an earthquake.

Isn’t there a threat?

In the last 200 years, the region has seen five big earthquakes in the 2,100 kilometer Himalayan arc. According to the Bilham team’s study, there are places where rupture is overdue. Some 55 percent of rock still needs to be fractured. According to Bilham’s estimate, there will be earthquake within 50 years. However, one cannot predict earthquakes. A massive earthquake can strike any time. What this means is that there is a threat. We need to make additional preparations for a possible massive earthquake.

If an earthquake is not going to occur soon, how practical would it be to start taking precautions now?

This is not a question about practicality. Rather, it is one of necessity. Our region is one of the major earthquake-prone zones in the world. In the last 10 years alone, we have seen several major earthquakes. Recently, there was a major quake in the western Indian state of Gujarat. Experts believe the earthquake in Gujarat was a wake-up call for the region. We have to start preparations vigorously. The Gujarat quake has generated awareness among the people in the region.

How prone is the region to earthquakes?

This is an earthquake-prone region but we cannot predict when one might occur. In such a situation, taking precautionary measures is the right step to avoid major losses in terms of human lives and property. Our level of preparedness is very poor. We need to accommodate all natural calamities in our perception and vision.

How do you see the level of preparedness?

We do not find much stress on dealing with natural calamities in our officialdom and policymaking level. Until we integrate natural calamities in our social life and national planning, we may die like insects in a major earthquake. If we do not develop long-term planning and integrate it into our day-to-day life, we will not be in a position to rescue our infrastructure. Our country will be thrust backward. To fulfill the need of the future, we have to prepare ourselves within an integrated approach. It is not that an earthquake will occur in 50 years; there may be one within the hour. If we raise awareness in even 10 people by tomorrow, there would be the possibility of rescuing five people from untimely death in a major quake. We have to work keeping in mind this broad approach.

If there is an earthquake equivalent to the one that hit Gujarat or the 1934 great earthquake, what will be the scale of damage?

If we have an earthquake like that of 1934, measuring 9 modified murkily intensity level or more than that, more than 40,000 people will be killed and more than 90,000 will be injured. According to our preliminary studies, such an earthquake will also destroy more than 50 percent of the houses in Kathmandu valley. The infrastructure of the valley, including roads, bridges, electricity and telephone services, would be badly affected and more than 50 percent of their services would be defunct. A recent study conducted by His Majesty's Government in cooperation with the Japanese International Cooperation Agency shows another scenario. According to the study, even an 8-intensity earthquake would kill nearly 20,000 people and injure more than 60,000.

How do view Nepal’s capability to face the situation?

The important question is not how many people would die and how many buildings would be destroyed. We have to see our capability to act. In view of our current capability and preparedness, the level of damage in a major earthquake will be much higher. If we take the case of preparedness in the hospitals, they have about 5,000 beds. Even in cities like California, the capacity of hospital service was reduced by 50 percent during earthquakes. Instead of fighting over figures on casualties, we have to see what will happen in case of large number of casualties. For instance, if we have 5,000 dead bodies, will we really be in a position to provide materials for cremation? In case 50 percent of the houses in the cities are destroyed, how many cranes and equipment do we have to mobilize to start rescue operation? After the quake, the major problem will be one of management, including treating the injured, cremating the dead and rescuing survivors. If we do not plan for early preparedness, we cannot do anything. In the last 15 or 20 years, we have built hundreds of concrete houses in Kathmandu. Most of these houses, according to preliminary studies, are going to be destroyed. But what equipment do we have to clear the debris. How many months will the whole process take?

How do you define an earthquake? Is it only a technical issue?

An earthquake is not only a technical issue. It is related to social, economic and political matters as well. If we do not develop a proper preparedness plan, we will be in a helpless position at the time of an earthquake. If we improve our capability and preparedness, we will be able to reduce the damage and destruction. For proper preparedness, the country does not have to invest huge amounts of money. A report published by the Global Earthquake Initiative shows that the per-capita risk in Kathmandu valley is much higher. Lapses in building construction are one of the major factors of risk. If we use basic elements in constructing houses over the next five years, the risk will be reduced by 25 percent.

How costly is low-risk construction?

If someone spends 8 to 10 percent of additional money at the time of construction, the house will be safer in case of earthquake. It will also reduce the risk of human life and injury. This is a not only natural problem. How we develop preparedness is important. First, the municipalities must strictly implement the building code. We have not been able to implement building code, which was approved eight years ago. The answer is not to see the natural question but to go on to develop building codes and other preparedness measures.

How do you see the awareness level among the people?

The awareness level in Kathmandu valley is unprecedented. After opening our organization, we have made every effort to generate awareness among the people. I am very happy to see people are gradually grasping it. One of the aims of NSET is to teach people that science is not for the sake of science but for the sake for the people. The level of awareness is very high as we receive frequent requests to conduct research. VDCs, schools, government organizations and other institutions, including municipalities, are asking us to conduct courses.

What is the response of the rural population?

Even rural people seem to be aware about the dangers of earthquakes. We now have about 50 construction workers trained in methods of building earthquake-proof houses. These construction workers are generating awareness. Two of our workers are working in Gujarat. Along with participating in construction work, they are also teaching their skills to Indian colleagues. In Patting village of Gujarat, these two Nepalese workers are very busy right now as they are also training their colleagues. They have already built 40 houses in the village. They told me that their expertise is in high demand. It is a matter of pride that Nepalis are in high demand. In the early days, when we talked about the risk of earthquake, we always talked about the issue in a way that would avoid panicking the people. Our experience has shown that if people have scientific knowledge, they will share it.

How do you see the response of the government?

As you know, the government is a complex matter. You have to pass through various levels of bureaucracy. We find that government offices are also coming out in support of our programs. They see us as a partner. The Ministry of Education is taking our technical advice in building new schools buildings. One positive aspect is the recent decision of the Ministry of Health to prepare the emergency health preparedness to cope with natural calamities. The ministry has already started to develop emergency response planning and preparedness. A health disaster working group is also active.

"We Made A Film The Government Should Have Made"

— Dr. BHOLA RIJAL

Film producer, lyricist, singer and prominent gynecologist - all rolled into one - Dr. BHOLA RIJAL is in the news because of his latest venture "Gaunthalee", the critically acclaimed first Nepalese lyrical feature film. The film is a heart-rending story of child marriage and its consequence on the girls� health as well as their social position. Dr. Rijal says the sad faces of women and girls forced into child marriages who he met as a gynecologist prompted him to pen the story/lyrics of "Gaunthalee". He spoke to SANJAYA DHAKAL about his latest success and how he manages to involve himself in so many diverse fields. Excerpts:

Your latest film "Gaunthalee" has been drawing favorable reviews in the media. Tell us what it is really about.

"Gaunthalee" was produced differently than other commercial films. Its story is not merely a story but a representation of the tragic situation of our villages. Although the trend of child marriage is decreasing, none of the households in the villages are untouched by the situation that is portrayed in the film. That apart, this film is a lyrical one. Such lyrical films are unheard of even in India and/or this region. No wonder this was the first lyrical feature film of Nepal. There used to be some lyrical plays but no feature film. My logic was that instead of showing this film in theaters in and around cities like Kathmandu, it could be shown across the country, in villages, so that the message it carries gets through to the real people affected by the situation. I would like to say that this is not purely an art film but one that has a strong message and is based on everyday reality of our society.

You were involved in the production of what are called commercial films. How come you changed tracks and produced a film like "Gaunthalee"?

Although the Mansarovar Group with which I am associated has been producing commercial films like "Laxmi Puja", "Chhori Buhari", "Ek Number Ko Pakhe", "Apsara", all of them were also guided by some social message. They were not out-and-out commercial films. We have never delivered cheap entertainment. Such message-ridden films were not new for us. Even so, we do consider "Gaunthalee" as an experiment. In fact, I think we made a film that should have been made by the government.

"Gaunthalee� is being screened in Kathmandu, too. How do you think the audiences here would receive it?

In fact, I wanted to screen this film in the stadium so that a large number of people could view it at a cheap price. But problems of security and transportation came up. If the film had to be screened in the stadium, we could only manage one night show each day. The audience would want transportation at night. Therefore, I had to drop this idea and screen it in theaters. Still, I really want my film to be viewed by a large number of people. I want my film to be screened in villages across the country so that nobody would say that they could not see it because they had no money.

You have been involved in the film sector for a long time. How do you find the current state of our film industry?

If you look at the development of the film sector over the last 10 years, you will find that it is really flourishing like an industry - a fact that was officially recognized by the government a year ago. Competition is on the rise due to many reasons. One is the glamour that has enticed many to become involved in this sector and invest money. Many producers burned their fingers, some even committed suicide. But some banners did establish themselves. One may ask, why, then, did these established banners not make more society-oriented films? Films that reflect and promote our culture, language and traditions should be made. However, we should not expect the private sector to always make such films. I made "Gaunthalee" but there is no encouragement for me to make more such films. We are planning to make another film called "Ukali Orali" where we will portray the life of brave Nepalis. But there should be a pat on the back from the government�s side, too. Otherwise, one day I may tire of making such meaningful films and resort to productions with names like "Dance, baby, dance" because I know they ensure returns. What I want to stress is that the government and the film board should encourage us. Maybe they can buy such films outright and keep them in their library. They can help producers take the films to every nook and corner of the country and help promote the film in the international arena.

What about the commercial films being produced today?

We should not try to emulate Indian films. In fact, we cannot do that. They invest 400 million rupees in a film whereas we hardly invest 4 million rupees. There is no comparison. In fact, I believe people should get the chance to see a Nepalese film for Rs 10. Exhibitors of Indian films may charge more than Rs 100. Although, the theaters are given the authority to charge as they find appropriate, the tradition here is such that if I screen my films cheaply, my film will immediately be tagged as being low quality and so on. Therefore, there have to be certain norms on this. Nepalese films should not be forced to compete with Indian ones. The import of Indian films should be limited for theaters. That will lead to the production of quality Nepalese films. What we see today is that except one or two, most Nepalese films are not good. I don�t see this trend ending as long as there is competition between commercially successful and unsuccessful films, instead of competition between good and bad films. Take, for instance, the recent Motion Picture Awards, both good as well as bad films received awards. There has to be certain criteria.

Nepalese television channels have recently gone for satellite transmission. How can this help the film industry?

The prevalent trend today is that of exploitation. Everybody is trying to pull down everybody else. There is no attitude for mutual prosperity. Satellite channels should come, they should develop and promote Nepalese culture abroad. But I don�t see them helping the film industry as of now.

You are involved in two totally different fields - film and medicine. You are also a singer as well as a lyricist. How do you manage to be so many different persons at a time?

I am in a creative field - I write songs, sing them, give music and so on. But I do not involve myself in production as such. I engage in creativity. I work for more than 18 hours. Therefore, you cannot compare me with those who work for six hours. As long as my health permits, I will continue to be busy in all these fields.

Which of the fields do you find more fulfilling?

I take them all equally. Because of time constraints, I have not sung for a while. I love all my fields equally.

What are your upcoming projects?

I am planning to release a new album with songs written by me and sung by popular artistes. The name of the album is "Sagarmatha Roi Rahechha" based on songs that try to portray contemporary concerns of the country. Besides, I am also planning to release an album where I will give the vocals myself. As far as films are concerned, we are planning to make "Ukali Orali" soon.