NATIONAL 5 (Spotlight Weekly)]

Crisis Of Confidence

Despite trading accusations over truce violations, both sides are meeting for a second round of talks this week

By A CORRESPONDENT

The hopes that had soared with the first round of talks between the government and Maoist rebels on August 30 at Godavari were dashed as the latter stepped up their campaign to raise forced `donations’ on the eve of their proposed mass meeting in the capital next Friday (September 21).

Maoist's program in Basantapur : Crowded gathering.

From big business houses to small-time traders, from schools and colleges to private firms and organizations, from commission agents to retail shopkeepers, virtually nobody was safe from the forced fund raising, intimidation and threats meted out by the Maoist cadres. After repeated statements issued by the Home Ministry failed to restore confidence among people, police had to intervene in the ‘people’s court’ that was delivering `justice’ at the headquarters of ANNFSU (Revolutionary), the Maoists’ student wing, at Bhurungkhel early this week and rescued five businessmen, including B.L. Sharma.

The Maoist activities not only invited confrontation with local people in districts including Parsa and Banke, even the Defense Ministry had to issue a stern warning to the Maoists and their front organizations not to abet the Royal Nepal Army and other security personnel to join their organization. The ministry asked them to stop uncalled-for pressure on the families of soldiers through threats. The army even opened fire in the air in Gorkha when a violent crowd proceeded toward the barracks where the army had taken into custody three Maoist activists with explosives.

Throughout last fortnight, it seemed the Maoist activists had a field day to do whatever they wanted, as the government remained a mute spectator. Amid growing resentment, none other than Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba himself warned the rebels to stop such activities. "Though I am still hopeful about the peaceful resolution of the problem, the Maoists’ activities don’t substantiate that," said the premier.

The rebel leaders, too, accused the government of using force to harass their cadres. Addressing a rally of Maoist cadres in Rolpa Monday, one of the Maoist negotiators, Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, accused the government of trying to disrupt the talks. Another Maoist negotiator, Agni Sapkota, told the party’s meeting in Rukum the same day that talks, too, were a political battle. "Now we are going in the front of talks and will return victorious."

As both sides seem to be using the peace talks tactically (See box), analysts say the outcome of the second round of negotiations will be crucial in determining the course of peaceful settlement in the days ahead. Despite recent problems, human rights activists are optimistic that the peace process will continue. "Maoists have said they will present their agenda and demands in the second round of talks," said Padma Ratna Tuladhar, one of the facilitators in the first round of talks. "The government, too, has expressed its commitment to move forward the peace process."

According to Tuladhar, the present confusion has resulted as the government and the rebels agreed to truce more than a month back but did not make public how it would be organized. "There should be a code of conduct for the government, the Maoists as well as the facilitators," said Tuladhar. "We have asked both sides to be patient."

Peace activists say the failure of the talks would lead the country toward the civil war. "Our country is not in a position to face the situation that would emerge if the peace talks failed," said Sudip Pathak, president of Human Rights Organization and convener of People’s Solidarity for Peace Campaign (PSPC). In order to create public pressure in favor of talks, the PSPC is going to organize a nationwide peace rally on September 14.

Despite such efforts from the level of civil society, critics say there is little both sides can agree on. With the Maoists harping on no less than an interim government, constituent assembly and institutional development of republic and the government in no position to compromise against the spirit of the constitution (that has termed multi-party democracy, constitutional monarchy and people’s fundamental rights as unalterable) a common platform seems as distant as ever.

But those watching recent developments within the country and outside and knowing the compulsion of the Maoist leadership to consolidate their gains and prevent their movement from heading toward anarchy say some sort of understanding is inevitable. Recent allegations by ruling Nepali Congress president Girija Prasad Koirala and leader of the main opposition Madhav Kumar Nepal about the forces backing the Maoists have also forced the rebels to bring out their real intentions.

Their withdrawal from the talks will bring them face to face with the Royal Nepalese Army which they want to avoid as much as possible, say analysts. Whether the talks on the table will determine the fate of the six-year-old insurgency or whether a solution will depend on certain give and take at some higher level within the country or even a foreign capital remains to be seen.

Govt. Strategy

— Continue to pressurize the Maoists but not to the level that could disrupt talks

— Try to restore people’s confidence by mobilizing security agencies

— Isolate the Maoists politically, gain domestic and international support by expressing commitment toward negotiated settlement

— Carefully watch Maoist moves, devise counter-insurgency strategies and put pressure on the Maoists in the table of negotiations

Maoist Strategy

— Organize huge mass meetings to gain political mileage and orient the cadres toward open politics

— Mobilize front organizations in fund raising and other campaigns

— Position the party as the only radical, left party and broad-base its support

— Re-group and re-arrange its rank and file, give impression to the cadres that the leadership will not sell out to the ‘old regime’

— Try to control further damage from popular backlash, send message to the international community that the party is sincere toward the talks, at the same time prepare for the `grand finale’