South Asia On The Front Line

After last weekís devastating suicide attacks in New York and Washington, which killed thousands of innocent people, a markedly changed global approach against terrorism has come into sharper public focus. As the leader of the group suspected of involvement in the US attacks is based in South Asia, terrorist organizations in the region have difficult times ahead. In Nepal, the government and Maoist insurgents started peace talks a month before the suicide attacks in the United States. How quickly Nepal, which is mired in six years of terror stemming from the Maoist rebellion, can restore peace remains to be seen.

By KESHAB POUDEL

On Friday morning, the queue outside the US Embassy in Pani Pokhari was unusually long. Unlike regular business days, visitors ranged from rural people to the urban elite. Often calm, restless at other times, those outside the embassy were not visa applicants. They were Nepalis who had come to express their condolences and voice solidarity with the American people against the scourge of terrorism.

Although the voice of a small country like Nepal may not carry much weight in what is likely to be a drawn out international battle against terrorism, the symbolism of the crowd outside the embassy was clear. The attendance of people of various strata showed Nepalisí commitment to promoting international peace and stability. For six years, Nepalis have experienced the trauma and agony of terrorism, which has largely gone unnoticed in much of the world. The Western media that have picked up the Maoist story in recent years have chosen to portray it as a liberation war.

"I came here to express my sorrow to the families of the innocent victims of the barbaric act committed by a group of terrorists," said senior journalist Gokul Pokharel. "I want to show solidarity with the American people in wiping out terrorism from the world," he said.

Pokharelís sentiments were echoed by the hundreds of Nepalis who stood in the line. "Violence does not know any boundaries and it is always directed against innocent people. I was shocked when I saw the crumbling World Trade Center towers and the cries of innocent people on CNN," said Padma Khadka, a resident of Budhanilkantha, who went inside the embassy to sign the condolence book.

The United States has always responded boldly against terrorism, but had never declared it an ìact of war.î The Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in December 7,1941 is remembered, in President Franklin Delano Rooseveltís stirring words, as a ìday of infamy.î That attack drew the United States into the Second World War. September 11, 2001 will be remembered as the day that changed the international response to terrorism.

US leaders almost immediately declared the terrorist attacks on the WTC twin towers and the Pentagon as an act of war against their country. The strong and instant international condemnation the attacks drew underlined the reality that they were also regarded as an assault on humanity. The stream of global denunciations reaffirmed the fact that the civilized world can never accept the killing of innocent people in the name of advancing any cause or redressing any grievance.

"We are working together with many countries, including Nepal, to bring the terrorists to justice. Senior Nepalese officials have expressed their commitment to support the United States by sharing information regarding terrorism," said Larry M. Dinger, charge d'affaires of the US Embassy. "The sympathy shown by the Nepalese people is incredible."

It will take time to establish who organized the attacks and whether there was any support from foreign governments. But the commitment shown by US leaders to hunt down those responsible for the dastardly acts and bring them to justice is aimed at deterring future attacks. President George Walker Bushís declaration that the United States would make no distinction between those who planned and carried out the attack and countries that harbored the terrorists marks a determined shift in the approach to the fight against international terrorism.

It has become clear that any delay by the civilized world to join hands to counter terrorism would make the planet more insecure. The international community seems to have realized the huge costs in terms of life, liberty and property people around the world have paid under terrorist attacks.

Earlier, even large-scale terrorist attacks were often forgotten soon. However, the scale of the September 11 attacks would make such disregard impossible. The likelihood of such an attack was widely predicted. In South Asia and the Middle East, suicide bombers have launched countless attacks and killed prominent figures, but they were simply forgotten after a while. Sri Lanka lost a third of its fleet of aircraft in a terrorist attack at the countryís main international airport a month ago. However, acts like last weekís coordinated effort by suicide attackers using hijacked aircraft, however, had largely remained in the domain of fiction writers.

Whatever the precise motives behind a terrorist activity, one of the purposes is to gain publicity. Whether it is small group like Nepalís Maoists or larger and more sophisticated violent outfits, they always carefully plan their acts to draw maximum publicity in order to terrorize the largest possible number of people. After the attacks in the United States, even those who are secretly sympathetic to terrorists have been compelled to withdraw their support. As the United States, the worldís only super power, has expressed its firm determination to destroy the network of international terrorism, the world has entered a new and unpredictable phase of warfare where the enemy is not clearly visible.

Last weekís attacks have highlighted the vulnerability of all modern societies in the world. It showed that almost all forms of infrastructure are open to attacks by groups and individuals that operate in the dark and strike at will. Suddenly many vulnerable buildings and installations around the world have come under increased threat.

Airlines are vulnerable to hijacking and no one has yet found a reliable way of making air travel 100 percent secure. It may be possible to improve defenses against particular terrorist techniques, significantly reducing known risks, but can such threats be eliminated altogether? Perhaps not. This makes concerted international action terrorism all the more vital.

Terrorism and Insurgency in Nepal

Nepal is an old victim of terrorism, having seen various phases of violent insurgencies in the past. The country's major political parties were responsible for launching such armed activities. Interestingly, all of these activities originated in India. Following the revolution of 1951, Nepal has seen nearly half a dozen insurgencies. The Maoist rebellion is by far the most violent one, having claimed nearly 2,000 lives.

Immediately after the 1951 revolution, a group of activists revolted in western Nepal under the command of K.I. Singh. Following the overthrow of the multiparty system in 1960, the Nepali Congress launched an insurgency, which fizzled out within two years. In 1968, the party organized another armed struggle. In 1973, the CPN-ML launched a "class struggle" killing some landlords in eastern Nepal. In 1985, a group led by Ram Raja Prasad Singh set off a series of bomb blasts in key Kathmandu centers. The country had a few yearsí respite before the Maoists launched their insurgency in 1996.

From todayís ruling Nepali Congress to the main opposition CPN-UML, all political parties have used violence to overthrow the old political system. Interestingly, those behind such acts have been granted amnesties in the name of political reconciliation.

With the growth of democracy and the availability of peaceful means of change in the post-Cold War era, terrorism and violence have lost any justification they may have carried. After last weekís attacks in New York and Washington DC, violent means to achieve any end are less likely to be tolerated.

The nature of last weekís attacks underscored the difficulties ahead in the fight against terrorism. The fact that shadowy terrorist networks working in different parts of the world can develop the capability to launch massive attacks at will presents an entirely new challenges to militaries that have been trained to fight enemies that can be identified.

As most terrorist outfits in South Asia receive patronage from a powerful state, the smaller states are in no position to bring the perpetrators to justice. Most of the terrorists and insurgent outfits in South Asia are promoted by one state to destabilize and undermine another.

During the Cold War, when India was allied to the Soviet Union and the United States backed Pakistan, the crises in Sri Lanka and Afghanistan appeared. India trained and supported the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) rebels in Sri Lanka while the United States and Pakistan allegedly sponsored the Mujahideen to fight against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

The communist bloc led by the Soviet Union encouraged rebellions against governments in developing countries in the name of national liberation struggles. Later, democratic countries like the United States followed similar tactics in the larger scheme of containing Soviet influence. The emergence of Islamic militant groups is a by-product of the Cold War, during which the West used religious zealots to contain communism.

A decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of Cold War, powerful states continue to back insurgents and armed rebellions continue to pose threats to many countries. In the process, small countries like Nepal have suffered from unprecedented violent activities. Former prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala and leader of the main opposition UML Madhav Kumar Nepal recently accused India of supporting and sheltering the Maoists rebels, a charge strenuously denied by the Indian Embassy.

As South Asia has become the hotbed for the worldís deadliest terrorist outfits, governments need to have a coordinated approach to curb the menace. If terrorist groups are continued to be allowed to operate, they would go on to create a major trouble for the region. If the insurgents from Myanmar, North-eastern India, Jammu and Kashmir, Nepal and Afghanistan establish strong links, it would be virtually impossible for any country to control them. Intelligence sources believe that most of the insurgents in North-eastern India are trying to join hands with Nepalese rebels. As the Maoists have already expanded their base from Darchula in far-western Nepal to Taplejung in the east, the possibility of other insurgent outfits infiltrating their rank and file cannot be ruled out.

"One cannot rule out the possibility that all terrorist groups may develop some kind of coordination and link. If all the terrorist groups in South Asia, from the hills to the sea, develop coordination, the nations in region may have to pay an unbearable price," said Dhruba Kumar, professor at the Center for Nepal and Asian Studies at Tribhuvan University, who is a leading strategic analyst of the country. "It is time for all South Asian countries to wake up and develop joint efforts to end terrorism." Moreover, if terrorist organizations in South Asia can coordinate attacks in a faraway country, it would obviously be easier for them to commit similar acts within the region.

As terrorist outfits have triggered panic across South Asian nations, can governments unite to end the menace? The region today spends large portions of national budgets to fight against insurgents. The economy of Sri Lanka is badly damaged by heavy spending on internal security. Other countries are facing similar financial strains.

Terrorism knows no borders and even a super power like the United States finds it difficult to deal with the menace alone. It is quite impossible for poor South Asian nations to tackle terrorism within its borders. Therefore, is this not the right time to revitalize the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and unite to fight against terrorism in the region?

Human Cost

Terrorism and insurgency carry huge human costs, which are very difficult to recover. The trauma triggered by terrorism is very difficult to forget. Many people lose their relatives and neighbors and some have to learn to survive with certain sense of fatalism. Both the state and society have to go a long way to recover from the wounds. In Nepal, the families of police personnel and the insurgents and those of the victims are surviving in such tragic conditions. More than 1,000 people in their teens have been forced to live with permanent physical disability.

Impact on Nepalese Economy

The September 11 tragedy came at a dangerous moment for the world. For Nepal, the prognosis is grim. The United States is the third largest importer of Nepalese goods, taking in products worth more than Rs12 billion every year. More than 40,000 American tourists visit Nepal each year. If there is any kind of fall in these figures as a fallout of the attacks, the Nepalese economy would be badly hit.

After the announcement of the cease-fire by the government and the Maoists, Nepalís tourism industry is gradually in the process of recovery. If the number of American tourists plummets, the economy will suffer. "The Nepalese economy may have to face some sorts of problems [from the recent attacks in the United States]," said Rajendra Khetan, second vice president of Federation of Nepalese Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI).

"South Asian countries need to develop a coordinated approach in fighting against terrorism," said Professor Pannakaji Amatya. "After the attacks in the United States, it is now certain that no country is safe from terrorism."

According to Boaz Ganor of the International Policy Research Institute, there needs to be a coordinated approach to wipe out terrorism from the world. Countries need to share intelligence, information and other logistic support in better ways.

Clashes of Civilization?

There are others who see the recent attack on the US as the beginning of the ìclashes of civilizationî. According to renowned political scientist Samuel P. Huntington, the 21st centuryís war will be the result of inherent clashes between civilization. Huntington in his much-touted book, ìClashes of Civilizationî clearly points out the possibility of conflict between fundamentalist muslims, western democratic countries and assertive China.

As Muslims defeated first super power former Soviet Union in Afghanistan and now Bin Laden - one of the leader of the Mujahideens who had fought tooth and nail against Soviets -- is attacking worldís only super power, the USA, they predict, this will drag the humanity in a long-term conflict of civilization. Although Muslims and Arab world have backed USA in its vow to fight against the terrorism, it is yet to see how common Muslims will respond at a time when the USA may be attacking a particular country.

What is Terrorism?

The words terrorism, insurgency, civil war, revolution, guerrilla war, intimidation and extremism are most often interchanged and used very loosely. What is common in all is violence. Terrorism is an organized system of intimidation. It is broadly defined as violent behavior designed to generate fear in the community, or a substantial segment of it, for political purposes. According to the Encyclopedia of Social Science, terrorism is a method whereby an organized group or party seeks to achieve its avowed aims chiefly through the systematic use of violence.

The US Central Intelligence Agencyís 1980 definition of terrorism, duly accepted by the State Department, is: The threat of use of violence for political purposes by individuals or groups, whether acting for or in opposition, when such actions are intended to shock, stun, or intimidate a target group wider than the immediate victim. Terrorist acts are directed against persons who, as individual agents or representatives of authority, interfere with the consumption of the objective of such a group.

The former Soviet Union was deeply involved in supporting terrorist groups in many countries through the provision of weapons and training. But Soviet leaders often issued denials and said they supported only national liberation movements and freedom fighters. Almost all these movements committed widespread violence and killed innocent people. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union supported many terrorist outfits in the name of national liberation movements. Even Western democracies promoted terrorists to counter the communists under the policy of containment.

Although the long-term objectives of terrorism, insurgency and revolution are similar, that is, overthrow of the existing regime or order, the short-term objectives and strategies or methodology may be quite different.

There is another form of terrorism, which is backed by one state against another. Whether it is democratic or totalitarian, most states have backed terrorist groups to overthrow regimes they donít like in another state. In South Asia, most terrorist and insurgent groups have received support from other governments.

According to the New Delhi-based Outlook magazine of February 1, 1999, there are nine insurgent groups active in North-east India, including the United Liberation Front of Assam and the National Democratic Front of Bodoland in Assam; the National Socialist Council of Nagaland and the Isaac-Muivah faction in Nagaland; United Nationalist Liberation Front and PLA in Manipur; All Tripura Tiger Force and National Liberation Force of Tripura in Tripura state.

According to Madras-based Frontline magazine of September 1, 2000, there are 11 terrorist outfits active in Jammu and Kashmir, including Hizbul Mujahideen, Al-Badr, Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen, Lashkar-e-Toiba, Harkat-ul-Jihad Islami, Harkat-ul-Ansar and Harkat-ul-Mujahideen, Jaish-e-Mohammadi, Tehreek Jihad-e-Islami, Muslim Janbaaz Force and Al-Jihad Force. Sri Lankaís LTTE, which is regarded by many as the most powerful terrorist group in South Asia, was originally backed by India.

Supply of Small Arms

Most of the terrorist outfits in the region have used all kinds of powerful and light weapons to wage war against the well-equipped government armed police and army. It is virtually impossible for small countries to continue their war against such outfits. Sri Lanka is spending billions of rupees each year to fight with insurgents and the situation in India remains similar. Even small terrorist outfits like the Maoist Communist Center (MCC) and Peopleís War Group (PWG) in the Bihar and Andhra Pradesh in India have been using semi-automatic and automatic weapons.

South Asia Partnership (SAP), an organization with national offices in the subcontinent, has formed a South Asian Small Arms Network, aimed at sharing information and data on small arms and light weapons.

According to a study of International Action Network on Small Arms (IANSA), South Asia is currently experiencing a crisis in the proliferation of small arms. In some cases, the proliferation is linked to insurgencies and sectarian violence. The common elements of the crisis include growth of gun violence linked to organized crime and political movements. Distinctive elements of the crisis can be seen in the challenges faced by Sri Lanka, India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh.

The traditional stereotypes on South Asia have been: India and Pakistan are both suppliers as well as end-users of small arms; Sri Lanka is an end-user, Bangladesh and Nepal are transit routes. However, changes have occurred in these patterns, with Nepal and Bangladesh now joining the category of end-users.

South Asia's problems with small arms stem, in the first instance, from the extraordinary numbers of the weapons that emerged during 1970s and 1980s on both the eastern and western flanks. The war in Afghanistan and weapons delivered to both sides together represent the single most significant source of arms in the subcontinent. They have had a devastating effect on Pakistan and parts of India.

The end of the conflict in the South-east Asia, particularly in Cambodia, also made available large number of weapons, which have found their way into Sri Lanka and North-eastern India. In Sri Lanka, since the end of India's support for the LTTE in the late 1980s, Tamil rebels have developed a sophisticated international network for the procurement of arms with devastating consequences for the people of Sri Lanka on both sides of the ethnic divide.

The situation seems to be fertile for the development of a strong terrorist network in South Asia, linking the north-eastern hills of India to Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Afghanistan. If the terrorist and insurgent outfits of northern part of South Asia and the LTTE are united, the South Asian terrorism network will pose a formidable challenge to the region as well as the world.

While the threat continues, the year 2000 saw the international community's commitment to counterterrorism cooperation and ability to mobilize its resources grow stronger than ever. "Patterns of Global Terrorism 2000", a report published by United States Department of State in April 2001, suggests that the vigilance of all members of the international community is critical to limiting terrorist activities.

Although Nepal is yet to sign the International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Financing, the country has already affirmed that it will not allow Nepalese soil to be used against any country. The convention creates an international legal framework for investigating, apprehending, and prosecuting those involved in terrorist financing and describes preventive measures to identify and choke off sources of income for terrorists and to restrict the movements of such funds across international borders.

There were 423 international terrorist attacks in 2000, an increase of eight percent from the 392 attacks recorded during 1999. In 2000, South Asia remained a focal point for terrorism and the trend of terrorism shifting from the Middle East to South Asia. From a network led by the billionaire Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden to the LTTE, many groups in Jammu and Kashmir, including Lashkar-e-Toiba, Harkat-ul Mujahideen, are active across the region. Smaller terrorist outfits are also active in Nepal and Bangladesh.

Nepalís Experience

In its modern history, Nepal had not seen hijackings and the killing of innocent people in such a large scale before the Maoist insurgency. The first hijacking took place in 1974 in which the perpetrators with links to the then banned Nepali Congress diverted a small Twin Otter aircraft on a flight from Biratnagar to Kathmandu to the bordering Indian city of Forbesgunj and decamped with Rs 2.8 million in government money it was carrying.

The second hijacking occurred in December 1999. Indian Airlines Flight IC 814 was hijacked in mysterious circumstances as it was en route from Kathmandu to New Delhi, allegedly by Harkat-ul Mujahideen activists. Unprepared for such an event, Nepal was heavily criticized and punished by India in failing to provide security.

After the hijacking, Nepal has tried to further improve the security system in the airport and other installations. The government has recently set up an armed police force to provide security as a paramilitary force to fight against violent movements.

As long as the traditional rivalry between India and Pakistan continues and the dispute between China and India remains, one might not expect lasting peace in the region. But a resolute global fight against terrorism with deep roots in south Asia would represent a major step toward building regional stability.

Suicide Terrorism

There are more than a dozen religious and secular terrorist groups resorting to suicide terrorism in the name of Islamic revolution or simply for freedom of their homeland. Four are relatively quiet now - the Natzersit Socialist Party of Syria, Syrian Nationalist Party, Lebanese Communist Party and Baath Party of Lebanon. Some of the groups are active in South Asia.

1. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam of Sri Lanka carried out the largest number of suicide attacks in its quest for statehood. It is the only group to have killed two world leaders, former Indian prime minister Rajiv Gandhi and Sri Lankan President Ranasinghe Premadasa. Their suicide bombers have claimed the lives of the largest number of leaders in a short time. The LTTE was trained and supported by India in its early days.

2. Hezbollah of Lebanon is second to the LTTE in suicide operations, having pioneered suicide terrorism in modern times after its 1983 suicide bombings in Beirut, Lebanon against French and US military camps.

3. The Al Qaida network led by Osama bin Laden, based in Afghanistan, is the prime suspect in last weekís attacks in New York and Washington. He used at least one Egyptian group in the 1998 bombings of the US embassies in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania. He is said to have the largest and strongest terrorist network in the world.

4. The Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) stands third in suicide attacks. Hamas is active in the West Bank and Gaza and has vowed to destroy Israel.

5. Palestinian Islamic Jihad acts in the same areas and also vows to destroy Israel.

6. Kurdistan Workers Party of Turkey uses suicide operations as part of the Kurdish separatist movement.

7. Some Kashmiri forces like Hizb-ul Mujahideen and Lashkar-e-Toiba, which Indians accuse Pakistan of backing, are also actively involved in suicide operations.