Cover Story (Spotlight Weekly)

Unbearable Cost In Death And Destruction

The loss of human life and property in the course of the Maoist "people's war", launched in mid-February 1996, has been enormous. Not a single day passes without reports of brutality committed by the rebels. As the security force press on with their operations, the Maoists have started targeting vital infrastructure in one of the world's poorest countries, adding to an already heavy toll.

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

Two days before 2059 B.S. dawned, the Maoists had the perfect Nepalese New Year gift for the people. They stormed two police posts, including a base of the Armed Police Force, at Lamahi and Satbariya in the mid-western district of Dang last Thursday (April 10). Over 40 policemen and half a dozen innocent civilians were killed in the fierce gunbattle. Four days later, security personnel were still trying to recover the bodies of the fallen "revolutionaries" —suspected to be over 150 —from the ditches they were hurriedly buried in. The rebels, too, made a comeback to recover some of the bodies of their comrades from the bank of the Rapti river, reports said.

People inspecting the aftermath of explosion in Tankeshwor : Terrified

The loss of human lives, property and infrastructure in the course of the Maoist "people's war" launched in mid-February 1996 has been enormous. Not a single day passes without reports of brutality committed by the insurgents, improvised electric devices laid down by them targeting security forces and ordinary citizens, including children, falling victims. Nor is there a mechanism to independently verify the reports of Maoists killed in "encounters" with the security forces.

As the conflict intensifies, with the government having declared the state of emergency in late November last year, branding the Maoists as terrorists and mobilizing Royal Nepalese Army to contain the rebellion, the insurgents have started targeting precious infrastructure of one of the poorest countries in the world.

On the night of April 2, a group of Maoist insurgents attacked and destroyed the airport tower at Jufal in the remote northern district of Dolpa. The district, which does not have a road link, has lost its only means of transport with the rest of the country. On March 30, the rebels bombed the power plant of the 12-MW Jhimruk power project in the mid-western district of Pyuthan. As if their mission was not accomplished, the insurgents returned to the site next day and bombed the entire powerhouse causing a damage of an estimated Rs 500 million.

The Butwal Power Company (BPC) that owns the plant is yet to send its team to assess the loss or start renovation works. It is still not clear what impact the recent attacks would have on the privatization efforts of the BPC —the biggest privatization bid offered by the government so far.

The insurgents cut off water supply lines at the headquarters of the eastern hilly district of Okhaldhunga and mid-western district of Dailekh creating acute water shortage of water for thousands of local residents last month. In the run-up to the five-day shutdown strike they called for April 2-6, 2002 (which they later postponed), the rebels have been engaged in burning down government offices, bombing bridges, telephone towers, power transmission centers and what not.

The rebels were forced to postpone their strike —which coincided with the School Leaving Certificate exams involving over 250,000 students nationwide —amid intense pressure from all political parties and civil society.

Empty airport premises : Indicating economic gloom

In a statement issued on the April Fool's Day, chairman of the underground Maoist party, Comrade Prachanda alias Pushpa Kamal Dahal, said his party had decided to postpone the strike by three weeks (rescheduling it for April 23-27) "keeping in mind the future of the students." He said his party would postpone all future protest programs if a "positive environment" were created to end the current political impasse. He, however, did not elaborate what would make such a positive environment.

As soon as they pulled out of the four-month-long "peace talks" unilaterally in November, the Maoists resumed violence targeting the government installations and army barracks for the first time in the six years of their insurgency. For the last four months, the Royal Nepalese Army and Maoist guerrillas have come face to face in the Nepalese hills and southern plains. While the army has been stepping up pressure against the insurgents through its slow and steady "cordon-and-search-and-destroy" operations, the rebels have managed to inflict heavy damage on the security forces, as they did in Achham early this year.

Despite the government's efforts to contain the rebellion, hundreds of heavily armed Maoist insurgents mounted attacks at Mangalsen, the district headquarters, and an airport tower at Sanphebagar in far-western district of Achham on February 16, killing over 150 people —including 55 Royal Nepalese Army soldiers —the single biggest assault by the rebels in the last six years. They set on fire almost all government offices at the district headquarters, butchered security forces, looted a local bank and killed innocent civilians.

What surprised many was the ferocity of the rebel attacks despite the three-month-old state of emergency and security operations. In the aftermath of the attacks, parliament —with far more than the mandatory two-thirds majority —decided to extend the state of emergency by another three months (till June 2002) to allow the army a free hand in fighting an insurgency that has already claimed over 3,000 lives.

With a view to cutting off their supply lines and support from Indian territory, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba visited New Delhi and the eastern Indian city of Kolkata between March 20-25 this year. A 31-point

PM Deuba : Faced with uphill task

joint press statement issued in New Delhi after the official meetings said both Deuba and Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee had reiterated the determination of the two countries to work closely in fighting the scourge of terrorism, which has been adversely affecting the peace and stability in the region, and also impeding socio-economic development. "In pursuance of their shared objective of combating terrorism and cross border crimes, the two governments agreed to intensify their on-going cooperation and continue to work closely with each other," the statement said.

Ironically, within days of Deuba's return from India, the insurgents escalated the intensity of their violence. The insurgency has had very negative impact on the country's economy, which has a per capita income of US $220. Tourist arrivals have dipped to an all-time low. Businesses are on the downturn and no new investment is coming in. Whatever scarce resources the government has at its disposal, it has diverted them to finance the ever-rising security expenses. According to Minister for Information and Communications Jaya Prakash Prasad Gupta, the Maoists have destroyed telecommunication infrastructure worth Rs 200 million over the last few years, resulting in an annual revenue loss of an equal amount.

Unofficial estimates say the toll on infrastructure since November 2001 alone might have surpassed Rs 2 billion. Almost every sector of national life has been affected adversely from the ongoing insurgency, which aims to replace the country's constitutional monarchy with a communist republic. Education, health and other development programs have suffered. With very poor socio-economic indicators, Nepal is trying hard to achieve comparable levels of human development in the region. Though corruption, bad governance and acute political stability have not helped matters, Nepal's development partners haven't given up hope. They pledged an annual assistance of US$ 500 million for the next five years during the Nepal Development Forum meeting in February this year.

Such assistance could be used for productive purposes only if Nepal had peace. The continuing violence has disrupted whatever social services people had access to in remote areas. Health workers have deserted most of the health posts and teachers have fled schools fearing attempts on their lives. The rebels have so far killed nearly five dozen school teachers and physically abused hundreds of others for failing to provide them donations or not obeying their orders.

In a country where nearly half of the population cannot read or write, one of the areas suffering from the insurgency has been literacy programs. The five-year plan adopted by the government has set a target of making 100,000 adults literate every year. The government, NGOs and INGOs are launching their own programs to meet this objective. Earlier, teachers were regular in the government-run literacy classes as Maoist rebels supervised these classes in their strongholds and warned them not to remain absent. But, in the post- emergency scenario, security forces have asked literacy classes to be rescheduled in the morning, instead of night, citing security reasons.

But in the morning, adults usually have more pressing daily chores to complete at home or in the fields. As the rebels have started looting banks, the government and international agencies have faced difficulties in sending money to run literacy programs in the remote areas.

Programs like REFLECT, that focus on empowerment of women, dalit and oppressed communities like former kamaiyas (bonded laborers) besides literacy have also suffered due to the conflict. "Though we are still continuing and overall outcome of the REFLECT program is quite encouraging, we are facing difficulties in launching our core programs like people's mobilization and empowerment," said Manavi Shrivastav, program director at the Action Aid Nepal, an INGO. REFLECT is running its programs in ten districts through 366 centers.

Government planners are worried by the destruction of the country's physical and social infrastructure saying it could have a very adverse impact on the country's entire development strategy. "As we have very marginal revenue surplus to fund development programs, added burden to launch rehabilitation measures is going to be very difficult," admitted Dr. Shanker Sharma, member of the National Planning Commission. "If the situation deteriorates any further, it will be very difficult for us even to mobilize foreign assistance."

Even those who have been trained by the Maoists for "total revolution" find it hard to justify the recent destructive activities by the insurgents. "There is no rationale behind the recent targeting of development infrastructure by the Maoists. It is only aimed at weakening Nepal as a nation," said Pushkar Gautam, a former Maoist district commander, who now writes articles analyzing different aspects of the insurgency.

During a recent community meeting in mid-western district of Pyuthan, local people unanimously raised their voice against the destructive acts being pursued by the Maoists. One of the Maoist supporters present in the meeting defended his comrades' act of destroying the Jhimruk power plant saying, "We are at war and this is a phase of destruction. People will themselves start reconstructing these facilities when we have a 'new democracy'."

Very few people would buy that sort of argument now. "The insurgents have destroyed nearly 100 post offices in different parts of the country over the last one-month," said Mukunda Sharma Poudyal, director general at the Department of Postal Services. The Maoists have attacked postal offices in Baitadi, Darchula, Kavre, Dolakha, Kailali, Dailekh and Jhapa districts, among others. A postal employee, along with another villager, was killed while on his way to distribute letters when an explosive laid down by the Maoists went off in remote far-western district of Bajura early this month.

Postal employees are now demanding transfer from their working stations fearing of their lives, said Poudyal. Sheer terror, violence and unending human tragedy have become part of life of hundreds of thousands of people around the country. "An estimated 600,000 youths have fled the country over the last few months," said Sudip Pathak, President of Human Rights Organization of Nepal (HURON), upon his return to the capital after touring over a dozen districts recently. Added a ruling party lawmaker in the

National Assembly, "The situation is such that people don't know why they are being killed by the Maoists. Nor do the Maoists know what would be the outcome of the on-going violence."

Going the Peruvian Way?

The so-called "people's war" launched by the Maoist outfit, Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path), in Peru is also known for similar devastation. Between 1986 and 1993, over 20,000 people were killed and 750,000 people had turned internal refugees in Peru with the country suffering a loss of over US$ 10 billion in terms of infrastructure and production losses. Nepalese Maoists, who adore Abimayel Guzman Reynoso, and take the Peruvian 'revolution' as their model are trying to adopt the similar course, say experts.

"The objective in both cases (in Peru and Nepal) is to gradually expand in the countryside while simultaneously increasing their military capacity, with the ultimate goal being the eventual encirclement of the cities, cutting them off from the countryside, and causing their collapse," said a study commissioned by a leading donor agency in Kathmandu.

"Symbolic actions against the symbols of capitalism, imperialism, and the state in the central city and/or other administrative centers are designed to demonstrate the capacity of the movement, gradually demoralize the population, immobilize authorities, both public and private, and force their withdrawal. These activities also aim at provoking a progressive reduction in the capacity of the economy to function, gradually creating a climate of disquiet and chaos as well as a progressive delegitimization of the state in the minds of populace."

As if taking a leaf from the Peruvian booklet, Maoist insurgents once again targeted the factory of Bottlers Nepal (Terai) Ltd.—that manufactures multinational brand Coca-Cola —at Bharatpur Sunday night damaging a "filling machine" of the factory. Some half a dozen armed insurgents locked the security guard up before setting off the bomb. Nobody was injured in the explosion. Earlier, the rebels had also caused a minor explosion at the same factory and had also attacked a facility of the Bottlers Nepal at Balaju in the capital.

So, is Nepal heading the Peruvian way? Not necessarily. One of the important differences is that Nepalese Maoist guerrillas participated for some time in the country's democratic process as a legal political party and were the third largest party in the parliament (1991-94). They were also engaged in the failed negotiations with the government last year. More importantly, the Maoists remain isolated in the national politics and are said to be losing their support base due to their increasing destructive activities, including cutting off of water supply lines —adding hardships to the local population in remote areas.

In the post-September 11 global scenario, they will no longer enjoy the safe haven in Indian territory, as demonstrated by the deportation of eight wounded Maoist guerrillas by Indian authorities to Nepal last week. As soon as their supply lines are cut off, the Maoists will be forced to seek a negotiated settlement with the government, say analysts.

Despite humiliating Maoist attacks in Achham and lack of reinforcement to security personnel under risk as exhibited in Dang, officials maintain that there are no immediate chances of resumption of talks with the rebels. "The government could consider holding talks with the Maoists only if they denounce terrorism, hand over all the arms and ammunition looted from the security forces, comply with the Constitution of the Kingdom of Nepal and join the national mainstream," Minister Gupta told reporters in Pokhara last week.

As the conflict intensifies, socio-economic costs to the nation are spiraling. According to one estimate, the deployment of the security forces cost the government at least US$ 100,000 a day. This means that over the last four months the country may have already spent $12 million in security expenses alone. As the government is trying to meet the escalating security expenses by slashing up to 25 percent of the allocated development budget, the country could fall in a vicious circle of poverty and unemployment that would further intensify the conflict.

"We are still assessing the extent of damage on country's infrastructure and preparing an extensive program for reconstruction and rehabilitation," Prithvi Raj Ligal, vice-chairman of the NPC told SPOTLIGHT Tuesday. "We are coordinating with the concerned government departments and the donor community to launch the rehabilitation services under priority basis."

According to officials, the impact of insurgency on development programs is going to be severe this year. "The government is planning to launch special rehabilitation measures both for the people victimized from the conflict and for the reconstruction of the infrastructure damaged in Maoist attacks," said Ligal. " At the same time, we have provided full security to important development projects like Melamchi, Mid-Marsyangdi and Kali Gandaki A."

Despite such assurances, people at large are praying for peace and wishing for an early end to this "no-holds-barred conflict." But as the Maoists are stepping up attacks against the development infrastructure and targeting innocent civilians in the run up to their five-day shutdown strike next week, the country is likely to bleed further in the new year.

Is there any way out? "Nepal's internal conflict has never remained internal. The 'proxy war' from which Sri Lanka had to suffer in the past is being repeated in Nepal," writes Ganesh Raj Sharma, senior advocate and a noted political analyst, in Himal khabarpatrika this week. "A strong public opinion in a smaller country can influence course of events even in a powerful country. Truth will prevail at last and truth will be the ultimate victor." Let's keep our fingers crossed in the new year, if that's not asking for too much during these perilous times.