National 2 (Spotlight Weekly)

Divided But Undecided

Pre-election unity between the Deuba and Koirala factions remains a strong possibility

By KESHAB POUDEL

Koirala : Will he or won't he ?

The joint appearance of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and his mentor turned rival Girija Prasad Koirala at the funeral procession of a district leader of the Nepali Congress this week has raised hopes of reunification among many members and supporters of the party.

At a time when their key lieutenants were busy battling to secure legitimacy for their respective factions at the Election Commission, Koirala and Deuba shared a table with remarkable ease, as if all the hostility and rancor of the last two months simply had not happened.

Strong factions within the Koirala and Deuba camps still want to go into the elections on their own, but there are large groups on both sides who are trying to unify the party. "We donpt see any possibility of unification with Deuba, J.P. Gupta, Pradeep Giri, Khum Bahadur Bijaya Gacchhedar, since they have made every effort to humiliate Girjababu," says a Koirala loyalist."How can Girijababu reconcile with them?"

Others believe that a seasoned politician like Koirala, who does not hesitate to go to the doorsteps of political opponents like CPN-UML generalsecretary Madhav Kumar Nepal and Rastriya Prajatantra Party president SuryaBahadur Thapa, will pardon his one-time protege. "If Girijababu can visitNepal and Thapa who had joined hands to oust him as prime minister last year, one cannot rule out possibility of his starting political talks with Deuba," says a political analyst.

Despite the blatantly clear differences between them, Koirala, who groomed Deuba and paved the way for his victory in the parliamentary partyelections, is being circumspect. In the last 12 years of multipartydemocracy, Koirala's personality and approach have undergone tremendous change. He has won the hearts of rivals like Tara Nath Ranabhat and lost die-hard loyalists like Khum Bahadur Khadka, Bijaya Kumar Gacchedar and Jaya Prakash Prasad Gupta.

At a time when both factions were struggling to prove themselves to be the genuine Congress at the Election Commission, Deuba and Koirala met in public for the first time following the formal announcement of the split.

By dissolving the House of Representatives and securing the endorsement of the Supreme Court, Prime Minister Deuba has won the empire by pushing Koirala into a corner. But Deuba has not won glory. The division in the Congress has always worried the large number of party leaders and workers, including henchmen of both Deuba and Koirala.

"If two factions of the Nepali Congress contest the election on their own, they will almost certainly leave the field wide open to the UML and the RPP," says a political analyst.

The division in the 50-year-old party has sent shock waves across national politics, which was already mired in instability. If the rival factions maintain their implacability, the UML will easily secure a majority in the next House of Representatives.

After expelling Deuba from the primary membership of the party, Koirala has humiliated his archrival. By winning the case in the Supreme Court, Deuba has defeated Koirala. As the victor, it is Deuba who has to take the initiative to contact Koirala. In this dangerous game, compromise and consolidation will be the best way to rebuild unity in the party.

"There is every possibility of unification in the Congress. If Congress leaders want to maintain their political hegemony, they have no option other than to unite before the elections," says a political analyst. "It is up to the Congress leaders to decide whether they want to contest the election following this under Buddhiman Tamang, K.P. Sharma Oli, Govinda Raj Joshi or Khum Bahadur Khadka as home minister."

The primary victim of the split will be the Nepali Congress itself, which had to fight a three-decade battle to establish itself as the largest and strongest party in the kingdom. Once the communists secure a majority, the Congress might find itself out of power for another 30 years.

Despite frequent calls for unity from various factions, former prime minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, the only living founder member of the party, has not made direct efforts to bring the two factions together. He might want Congress leaders and workers, who know the costs of the split, build pressure in both camps in favor of unity. At the moment, dominant members in neither group have shown any willingness for mutual accommodation.

"We have always been in favor of party unity, but the unification process will depend on the behavior of former prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala," said Minister of Information and Communication Jaya Prakash Prasad Gupta.

Koirala does not lack people like Shailaja Acharya, Sushil Koirala, Govinda Raj Joshi, Arjun Narsingh KC and his politically ambitious nephews, Niranjan Koirala and Dr. Shekher Koirala, who are against pardoning Deuba and members of his faction.

Deuba, too, is surrounded by die-hard opponents of unity such as Bijaya Kumar Gacchedar, Pradeep Giri, Chirnajibi Wagle, Prakash Man Singh and Bimlendra Nidhi. Whatever the role these people may play in the present circumstances, both factions share commonalities tested during their years in power and outside, which could spur the unity process.

"Unity in the Congress is just a matter of time. Once the force that is playing its game in internal politics give an indication for unification, nobody can stop Congress leaders from embracing each other," says a political analyst. "I cannot say how or when, but they will unite."

The leaders of the two factions sat in front of the Election Commissioners arguing in favor of their claim to the election symbol, the tree, and the four-star flag. Significantly, neither side demonstrated any belligerence.

"Political negotiations are going on. Since the division in the Nepali Congress is like a division in the family, there can be unity at any moment," said Radheshyam Adhikary, a member of the National Assembly and youth leader of the Nepali Congress.

As a democratic party, the Congress has many commonalities with the democratic world. "A weak Congress and a strong and united communist party will tilt the balance of power in Nepal. Even if the top leadership remains committed to upholding the tenets of Nepalps domestic and foreign policies, once the communist party secures a majority, the more militant grass-root level workers will have a significant influence in policy making," says a political analyst.

Deuba : On the offensive

At a time when the country is heading toward elections, Congress leaders understand the importance of a united front. But what they also need to understand is that if they are eager to commit suicide, then there will be no one to rescue them.

Nicolo Machiavelli, in his book The Prince said, "In politics, there are no perfectly safe courses; prudence consists in choosing the least dangerous ones." During emotion-charged moments, the propensity to accept political dangers often tends to be prominent. Cooler minds are more conducive to rational thinking. The least dangerous way for the leaders of the Nepali Congress is to unite to contest the elections.