National 7 (Spotlight Weekly)

Steady Gains

Nine months after coming out of the barracks, the RNA claims steady gains in their operations against the Maoists

By SANJAYA DHAKAL

After the initial hiccups, the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA), which is leading the war against terrorism in the country since the last nine months, claims to have made solid gains in its campaign.

"We have pushed back the hardcore terrorists to the jungles. Their open activities have largely ceased," said Colonel Deepak Gurung, spokesperson of the RNA.

Gurung, speaking at the first-ever press conference held by the RNA, said that according to the intelligence reports there is a great deal of disenchantment within the network of Maoists. "We have reports that there are profound differences of opinion and imbalance within their network."

The military claims that recruitment has come down sharply and that supply networks lay in disarray following RNA's operations.

In the period since the imposition of emergency in November last year, the security forces have killed 3,100 suspected terrorists out of which 2,290 have been verified.

However, the RNA is not discounting the strength of the Maoists yet. "We believe there are still 3,000 to 4,000 hardcore terrorists and 10,000 to 15,000 militia," said Gurung.

How come the Maoists still have such considerable strength? "The RNA is not engaged in full-fledged aggressive offensive. The thinking in the RNA is that these Maoists, too, are Nepalese though they are misguided. Therefore, our modus operandi is to first try and bring them back on track. Hence, we are currently in defensive posture. We defend our barracks and we go for search operations. Only if we are attacked do we retaliate," said Gurung.

The prime target of the security forces have been the training centers and shelters. Besides, as the Maoists are found to use human shields, it is that much difficult to launch direct assault against them.

The security forces have already recovered 13 percent of the total weapons the Maoists had looted from police posts, military barracks and other offices.

The RNA, however, thinks that the remaining weapons still in the hands of the terrorists could also have been damaged. "It is a matter of common fact that these weapons need constant maintenance. But because of our operations, the Maoists have been forced to hide their weapons. Mostly they bury them. So the efficacy of such weapons is anybody's guess," said Gurung.

Further indicating the dent in the terrorists' network, RNA officials said the efficiency of even the hardcore guerrillas is suspect. "For six years they had a free hand. They chose their cadres and hardcore guerrillas and provided them with intense training. We even recovered photos showing instructors from the India's People's War Group providing training to them in remote parts of Rolpa district. But this has all stopped now. Their training has been stopped. Earlier they used to carefully study and make plans before launching a major attack. Now we are able to pre-empt such attacks," said Lt.-Colonel Rabindra Chhetri.

According to the army, there is a great deal of disillusionment within the rank and file of the Maoist network. It says that unlike before, the average age of guerrillas in their platoons is 13-14 years. Even the platoon commanders are hardly out of their teens. "The patches of such platoons are kept in isolation in remote forests. They are not allowed outside news and are constantly fed with their own propaganda. The guerrillas in such platoons are given to believe that their party is making progress swiftly and is on the verge of capturing the capital. They don't know what is going on in the country," said Gurung.

Despite such progress, the RNA still faces many hurdles. The lack of resources and equipment is a major one. "For instance, we don't have enough helicopters. Just recently, we received reports that a group of Maoists led by Agni Sapkota, the one who had participated in the failed government-Maoist talks, had come to Dolakha. We went there but as we did not have the chopper at our exclusive disposal, we could not take adequate soldiers to plug off all the exit points and the terrorists fled," said Gurung.

Meanwhile, the RNA is keeping its fingers crossed that the promised foreign assistance will be delivered soon. The US government has promised support for training and non-lethal equipment worth $20 million. The British government has promised help in communication, transportation and other areas. It is currently in the process of acquiring two MI 17 helicopters for the RNA. The Indian government has been providing training and weapons. China has promised help in communication equipment. Likewise, in near future, the army would be acquiring 5,000 weapons of 5.56 caliber from the United States, an Ecquiral chopper from France and a sky truck from Poland.

To upgrade its personnel strength, the RNA is adding 5,000 recruits this year. The same number was added last year. "Furthermore, to better handle the forthcoming elections, we are hoping to appoint 10,000 ex-servicemen on contract basis," said Gurung.

Refuting the charges that the RNA was pressing for the extension of emergency, Col. Gurung said, "It is not up to us to decide whether the emergency should be imposed. Emergency or no emergency, we will carry out what we are ordered to do."

Nine months after the RNA launched its operations against Maoists, the military is still not assuming anything. "We are still operating with the mindset that enemies can attack us anytime, anyplace and at any post. We are prepared for any eventuality," Col. Gurung said.

But as RNA officials themselves admitted that there is no quick-fix solution to insurgency anywhere, the people have to learn to be patient. "We have seen how the US fought in Vietnam and how the British fought in Malaysia. Likewise, we have witnessed protracted insurgencies in several other countries. We are trying our best to incorporate these experiences and put them to use after matching them with our conditions," Col. Gurung said.

Major Gains

- Development of sound intelligence network and infiltration

- Obstruction in Maoists' command and control system

- Increase in the wave of surrenders

- Recovered 13 percent of the weapons looted from security forces

- Strangled the Maoists' open activities

- National/international support in RNA's favor

- Heavy destruction of terrorists' training centers, shelters and their supply network

- Improvement in the law-and-order situation, particularly in cities

- Apparent flexibility in the terrorists' policies

Major Hurdles

- Difficult geography and terrain, climate and remoteness of the areas under operation

- Having to provide security to other vital installations like telecom, airport, hydropower stations, which has diverted attention

- Difficulty in relaying news regarding operation because of various factors including the remoteness of the area, destruction of communication network and time taken for verification

- Lack of resources and facilities, including weapons

New Frontiers

Wars are not held only on the battlefield. They are also held in the mind. In fact, many war experts have said that winning the psychological battle is the pre-requisite to any victory in conventional sense. Until before the emergency was imposed, the Maoists had the total say in this new frontier. They preached, threatened, intimidated even killed to browbeat ordinary people to toe their line. They made use of the media and distributed pamphlets and other things to spread their propaganda and rule the people's psychology. The rest of the establishment remained a mere spectator while the Maoists began to post many victories. But following the imposition of the emergency, the RNA is not leaving any stone unturned to fight the rebels in the psychological operations as well. "Such has been the strategy of the Maoists that they intentionally plant stories and spread rumors to create rift and confuse people. Recently they even declared that they will be upgrading their military strength to the brigade-level. There was news that they held a major meeting as well. But meeting can be held in a single room in any place. There is no need to be shocked by this. This is all part of their strategy to sow confusion and fish in the troubled waters," said Lt. Colonel Rabindra Chhetri, who heads the psy ops launched by the RNA. He is also the chief person behind the highly successful television program called "Matole Magdaina.." The program, which is aired on NTV every fortnight, gives accounts of army operations and other news related to it. Presently, the RNA, too, has begun printing pamphlets and posters in order to distribute them to general public as well as rebels. The pamphlets expose the real situation and urge Maoists cadres to return back to live a normal life.