NATIONAL 2 (Spotlight Weekly)]

Power Politics

Thanks to its president, the Nepali Congress risks being reduced from a majority party to minor player

By KESHAB POUDEL

Staking his party's absolute majority in the House of Representatives on the altar of political expediency, Nepali Congress president and former prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala seems to be ready to lead a faction of a nebulous broader democratic alliance. Although one of the objectives of the alliance is to develop national consensus among various political parties, the concept threatens the essence of multiparty democracy in which political parties are elected to power on the basis of their own programs.

Koirala : Unclear agenda

Politically, such a development seemed far-fetched until very recently. But now the ball has been set rolling. An announcement after a meeting at the Maligaun residence of Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) leader Surya Bahadur Thapa said that eight leaders of four national parties had agreed to work under a minimum national consensus framework. The announcement indicated that Thapa, who served for the longest period as prime minister under the Panchayat system, still has a major influence in politics. Although Thapa's party holds 11 out of 205 members in the House of Representatives, his position in the alliance is as par with Koirala's.

Thapa may have heaved a sigh of relief, as he has been harping the theme of national consensus for the last two years. For Koirala, this is not an overnight political development, either. The Congress strongman floated the idea when he was prime minister six months ago. However, he did not find any takers for his 14-point national consensus proposal as long as he headed the government. But on the afternoon of February 2, after three hours of discussions, the four political parties endorsed the agenda for national consensus, positioning constitutional amendment as the main plank.

The country is in the midst of a state of emergency, which is coming up for ratification in parliament. Against this backdrop, the agreement struck by senior leaders of four national parties ó the Nepali Congress, CPN-UML, RPP and Nepal Sadbhvana Party (NSP) ó sent out a strange message. Although the

parties did not say whether they would endorse the state of emergency, Koirala accepted the other participants' suggestion to press Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba to trim his 42-member cabinet.

In a situation when various political parties are involved in internal dissension, proposing a common agenda for national consensus is easier said than done. As the four national parties have a combined 61-point agenda, how they come out with a workable program acceptable to all remains to be seen. The national consensus proposals include Nepali Congress's 14 points, Congress-UML's 17, CPN-UML's 22, RPP's 6 and NSP's proposal of amending the constitution to pave the way for easier distribution of citizenship certificates.

Opposition leaders : Waiting for their share

In the final analysis, Koirala has the most to lose. How can Koirala justify his tireless campaign for a majority in the last parliamentary elections when he is prepared to sacrifice the mandate given by the people? If the local elections are held in a year as scheduled, how is Koirala going to ask for votes? Will he ask the people to support the Nepali Congress or the broader democratic alliance?

"Koirala still has nation-wide acceptance and strength and his party secured a majority in the last elections to solve the national problems," says a political analyst. "How can Koirala now say that he is no longer committed to the mandate of the people? This amounts to a betrayal of the people."

Koirala's followers see matters differently. They support the Congress supremo's move on the ground that a broader democratic alliance is nothing but a forum of various political parties that believe in multiparty democracy and constitutional monarchy. "The proposal for a broader democratic alliance is not directed against any individual or political party," Koirala said during his recent tour of the districts. "One of the aims of the alliance is to support the government in its effort to restore law and order."

Every political system requires minimum understanding between major political parties on certain issues like economic programs, political process and national security. But the consensus currently being sought in Nepal risks pushing the country into another phase of political instability.

What will be the position of the Nepali Congress in a broader democratic alliance? What about the role of his party's government led by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba? "When Koirala cannot unite his own party colleagues, how can he talk of unity with members of the RPP, three communist factions and Nepal Sadbhavana Party?" asks a Congress insider.

Koirala, who was victimized by the forces of destabilization in the past, seems to be heading toward destabilize his one-time protÈgÈ Deuba. Although Deuba came to power amid an opposition campaign to oust Koirala, one cannot see the need of a leader of Koirala's stature to follow a similar route.

"How can the president of the ruling party announce that his party's majority in parliament cannot do anything to bring normalcy in the country?" asks a Deuba loyalist. "If Koirala still has political values, he must follow the party line."

Koirala, a seasoned politician, has seen many ups and downs, including conspiracies hatched by various political forces. He knows how his last government was pulled down by the joint efforts of communist parties, the RPP and his own party members. But what has prompted him to move against his own government this time?

As an active political worker, Koirala obviously cannot remain an idle spectator to events. He will always be at the center of politics. But where will his position be after joining a broader democratic alliance. Has the Nepali Congress president consented to become just another member of an alliance formed to bring normalcy in the country?

"This is one of the major political achievements of Girijababu, as he has shown his ability to bring all democratic political factions in a broader democratic alliance," says Sushil Koirala, general secretary of the Nepali Congress.

Koirala claims that his proposal for a broader democratic alliance is an extension of his elder brother B.P. Koirala's national reconciliation policy. But no one sees a rational basis for that argument. B.P. Koirala proposed national reconciliation to harmonize relations between political forces. But G.P. Koirala's call has rocked the country's political foundations.

"Koirala remains a key player of the Nepalese politics and his role cannot be ignored, but how can he accept a role to destabilize the whole political process by destabilizing his own government which was elected through his own efforts?" asks senior advocate Mukunda Regmi. "I don't understand why such a powerful man of Nepalese politics agreed to become a factional leader in the midst of other parties."

At a time when senior Congress leader and former prime minister Krishna Prasad Bhattarai and others in the ruling party are yet to endorse his proposal, how can Koirala assure other components that the Congress will lend its support to the alliance. "First of all, there needs to be unity in the Nepali Congress," says Regmi. "If there is unity in the Nepali Congress, the party president will not have to go for a national alliance with others, as Koirala is still respected in the party and the country."

Whether Koirala is in power or outside, it does not make any substantial difference to him. However, if Koirala becomes involved in cheap political games, the country will lose political stability. For Koirala, the quest for national consensus may bring some political advantage. But any alliance would reduce the Nepali Congress from a majority party to a minor player.