NATIONAL 3 -(Spotlight Weekly)

Avoiding War

Thanks to the momentum gained at the SAARC summit, India and Pakistan try to explore ways to forestall an all-out war

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

Exactly a week after shaking hands with the chief executive of India under full media glare, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf delivered a speech : dubbed as the most important one made by the general in his nearly two-year-old political career : to the nation on Saturday (Jan. 12). In his Speech, carried live by influential media outlets including the BBC and CNN, Gen. Musharraf announced a number of measures to curb extremist activities within the country, while keeping his country's sentiments on Kashmir intact.

SAARC Leaders : Has the Summit eased tension in the region

After an all-party meeting, Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh on Sunday welcomed the Pakistani president's speech, albeit cautiously. "We welcome the declared commitment of Pakistan not to permit the use of its territory for terrorism anywhere in the world, including in Jammu and Kashmir," said Singh. "Pakistan has only stated its intention. Let the intention be translated into action for all to see."

India has been accusing Pakistan of harboring terrorists : a risky game after 9/11 : and pursuing cross-border terrorism, including the daring attack on the Indian parliament on December 13. Pakistan maintains that it extends only moral support to what it calls ëfreedom fighters' in Kashmir.

As the leaders of two South Asian neighbors turned nuclear rivals assembled in Kathmandu in the first week of January, the 11th SAARC Summit invited unprecedented media intention from around the world. Even described by the western media as the ëAsian Summit,' the Kathmandu summit may be remembered as an important step forward in easing tensions between India and Pakistan, which are on the verge by mobilizing almost one million soldiers on both sides of the international border.

In the footsteps of the SAARC summit, British Prime Minister Tony Blair toured both India and Pakistan, and urged them to exercise restraint. US President George W. Bush called Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistani President Musharraf urging them to resolve their differences through peaceful means. Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji's visit to New Delhi and US Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to both India and Pakistan are added examples of international concern toward maintaining peace and stability in this region : once described as the "most dangerous place in the world" by former US President Bill Clinton.

For the 16-year-old regional grouping, easing of tensions between two of its largest members has remained key in its overall performance, say analysts. "Though bilateral issues are not discussed in the SAARC forum, regional cooperation will definitely suffer a setback if the tensions between India and Pakistan persists," said Dr. Mohan P. Lohani, former executive director at the Institute of Foreign Affairs. "The on-going conflict and military confrontation-like situation (between India and Pakistan) will keep the SAARC under shadow."

During the Kathmandu summit, which took place after a gap of over three years, no serious talks could be held between the Indian and Pakistani leaders at the sidelines of the official events. But the developments after SAARC give some room for optimism.

"As the chair of SAARC, Nepal looks at the current development with a positive note. If all the member states agree, Nepal should take initiative to ease tensions between India and Pakistan," said Dr. Lohani.

In its "war against terror," the US doesn't want India and Pakistan to engage in a deadly conflict that could divert the world's attention from capturing terrorists like Osama bin Laden. Even Indian commentators agree that as both the hostile neighbors are more or less at military parity, no country can declare itself as a victor at the end of the devastating battle.

"Military stand-offs have their own logic," wrote Praful Bidwai, a leading Indian peace activist, in The Hindustan Times newspaper last week. "In India and Pakistan, even routine exercises can trigger off spiraling rivalry. An India-Pakistan war will be fundamentally unwinnable : and ruinous."

For a region that houses nearly half of the world's poor, fighting a military war rather than fighting a war against poverty, illiteracy and unemployment could be nothing but suicidal. In the spirit of the `Kathmandu declaration' adopted by the SAARC leaders in the Nepalese capital last week, both India and Pakistan could set an example that they are still willing to give peace a chance. Or, will they? n