NATIONAL 5 (Spotlight Weekly)]

Tremor Tolls

As a powerful earthquake is said to be long overdue in this Himalayan kingdom, an NGO takes initiative to make people aware

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

When a powerful earthquake hit Bhuj in Gujarat state of India last yearótaking thousands of lives and destroying billions rupee worth property-- all eyes were focused on Kathmandu. A number of studies have predicted that a powerful earthquake is overdue in Kathmandu that could have devastating impact upon the local population and other infrastructure.

Earthquakes are an unavoidable part of Nepal's future, just as they have been a part of its past. However, because of increasing population, uncontrolled urban development, and a construction practice that has actually degraded over the last century, Nepal is becoming increasingly vulnerable to earthquake risk with each passing year, say experts.

Studies show that Kathmandu Valley faces a large and growing risk from earthquakes. A recent loss estimation study, conducted by NSET and GeoHazards International, indicates that the next major earthquake to affect Kathmandu Valley could cause tens of thousands of deaths and nearly a hundred thousand injuries. Damage to the housing stock, businesses, public buildings, utilities, and transportation networks will also be devastating.

The NSET study projected that up to 40,000 people could die and 600,000 people rendered homeless of an earthquake of the magnitude of 1934 (8.3 in the Richter Scale) hit Kathmandu valley. Nearly 17,000 people had died and over 300,000 houses were destroyed in Kathmandu during the Bihar-Nepal earthquake that hit this region in 1934 Nearly 17,000 people had died and over 300,000 houses were destroyed in Kathmandu during the Bihar-Nepal earthquake that hit this region in 1934.

'Experience from other communities proves that many things can be done to reduce a community's earthquake risk, even with limited resources. Kathmandu Valley needs to begin the process of managing its earthquake risk now to ensure its survival and to protect its residents,'said Amod Mani Dixit, general secretary of National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET)-Nepal.

'Collective efforts on part of the government and civil society could make Nepal an earthquake safe society in the next 20 years,'he added.

NSET-Nepal, on its part, has taken initiative to make people aware about the earthquake related hazards. 'Earthquake don't kill people, unsafe buildings do,'says Shiva Bahadur Pradhanang, chairman of the NSET. As part of its campaign to create earthquake safe societies, the NSET has been launching a number of activities including Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Action Plan Implementation Project (APIP) and Institutionalization of Earthquake Risk Management, among others. Three masons and one engineer trained by the NSET are providing on-the-job training to Indian masons in the quake-hit state of Gujrat. About 140 new houses have been constructed earthquake-resistant in India and the exchange program is termed as a very fruitful exchange between the two developing countries.

So, what could Nepal learn from the Gujrat quake? 'The biggest lesson is that knowledge existed for 20 years in Gujrat (about earthquake safety) but mechanism of implementation was conspicuous by its absence,'said Dixit. After January 26, 2001 (the day Gujrat was hit), NSET organized nearly 60 lecture programs raising awareness about earthquake safety in the Nepalese capital. Interestingly, nobody from the government invited this group of committed professionals.

Of course, things have started to change thanks to the continuous advocacy being done by organizations like NSET. Within one month of NSET's approaching the government, the government agreed and subsequently declared Magh 2 (January 15) every year as the Earthquake Safety Day (ESD). On this very day, `maha bhukampa' (the Great Earthquake) had hit Nepal in 1934.

The ESD is being observed with a number of activities, majority of them coordinated and conceived by local communities and local bodies, since 1999. This year too weeklong programs are being organized to make people aware. 'In fact, one of the most important things is to raise public awareness (about earthquake safety),'said David Hollister, advisor at the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, who is currently in town. 'One of the most active organizations in the region, NSET's works are quite unique and progressive.'

One of the advocacy areas for NSET has been (to lobby for the) strict enforcing of the Building Code adopted by the government in 1994. ''Ninety-nine percent of the buildings being constructed don't comply with the code. People are concerned but the process of institutionalization (of implementing the code) is very very difficult,'said Dixit.

Besides organizing training and workshops at the national and regional level, the NSET is involved in developing a ëDisaster preparedness and emergency response planning for health sector in Nepal' in association with the Ministry of Health and World Health Organization (WHO).' The plan aims to make sure that emergency health services are offered to people in a swift and reliable way during the event of mass casualty.

On Sunday, a mass casualty simulation drill was organized in Lalitpur district to recreate the experiences people would feel when the tremor actually hits. It would be better if people try to feel such tremors and prepare for their own safety, rather than waiting for the big tremors to actually hit. n