National 7 (Spotlight Weekly)

Urgent Steps Needed To Avert Kosi Disaster

By A.B. THAPA

Nepal is grateful to the international donor community for its generous grant assistance in developing the country's hydropower resources. Such assistance has been very helpful in initiating work to improve the desperate conditions of our people. Nepal is now facing a new type of problem - the Kosi problem. The development of the Kosi river has emerged as the most important task before us, requiring the immediate attention of the entire country. The lives and property of millions of peoples in our region are at great risk. Unfortunately, very few of us are aware of the scale of the problem. Donors and international agencies involved in the development of Nepal's water resources should come forward to help us sort out the problem.

The challenge posed by the Kosi is enormous indeed. It involves great dangers as well as bright prospects for development. An article published in China Daily on October 16, 1998 described the Yellow river in China as "a cradle, a killer, a mother and a menace". The same characterization is true for the Kosi.

The generation of abundant and cheap electricity for domestic use and export, the provision of year- round irrigation in 11 out of 18 Terai districts and the opening of a canal waterway to link Nepal with the seaport are among the benefits from Kosi's development. These benefits are very significant for Nepal; yet the overriding factor in placing the Kosi's development at the top of the list of priorities is flood control. If efforts to develop the river are not completed in time, then a vast area of our region could soon be engulfed in one of the world's biggest water-related disasters.

The Kosi, known as the river of sorrow of Bihar, has shifted over 120 km from east to west in the last 200 years. About 8,000 sq. km. of land has been laid waste as a result of sand deposits. Many towns and villages have been wiped out and heavy losses of property, cattle, and human life have been inflicted. Fortunately, the embankments built a few decades ago have temporarily helped to check the lateral shift of the Kosi. But the detention basin upstream of the barrage at Hanumannagar is almost full of sediments today. Soon the embankments would be ineffective in controlling floods.

The Kosi is on the verge of shifting to the east far away from its present course. The peoples of Nepal and India are heading for a natural disaster of an unprecedented scale. But hardly anyone in Nepal appears to be concerned. Even international agencies noted for their active role in the study of the environmental problems and water resources of Nepal have not yet realized the extent of this danger. It would be unfortunate indeed if the Kosi swung to the east and took the lives and property of millions in South Asia by surprise.

Successive studies and recent observations indicate that the Kosi is quickly turning into a hanging river and that we are heading for an unprecedented flood disaster. Such a disaster would not be just a one-time event. Like the Yellow river floods in China in the past, the ferocious floods of the Kosi would also be frequently hitting North Bihar in particular, wiping out towns and villages, and laying vast area of lands bare with sand deposits. The eastern and the southern boundaries of the flood-affected area could extend up to the Mahananda and Ganges rivers respectively. India's railway and roadway linkages with its northeastern states could also be severed. Similar floods in China's Yellow river in 1938 killed about half a million people. After the disaster, big storage dams were built to control the floods. The Yellow river is now completely regulated. China Daily reported that dams have helped to avert damage of about US $ 50 billion.

Solutions to the Kosi's floods should be found quickly. All works needed for flood protection should be completed in time. Renowned experts and scientists who have studied the Kosi say provision of dams in the drainage area with very big storage volume is the only lasting solution to the problem. We can draw similar lessons from China's experience. The storage dams should be provided in time. Unfortunately, some people in Nepal and India have misgivings about such dams. Such misgivings are unfounded and are often the result of the present global disenchantment with high dams for the generation of hydroelectricity. The lives and property of too many people in Nepal and India would be at great risk if the Kosi dams were not built in time.

Nepal requires sincere commitment as well as cooperation from India for Kosi's development. Components have been identified in the 1997 Indo-Nepal agreement to conduct jointly feasibility studies. The studies would cover the Sun-Kosi and Kosi high dam projects and a navigation canal linking Nepal with the seaport. A 120-km stretch of the proposed navigation canal would have to be dug inside Indian territory.

Nepal can draw a lesson from the Columbia river treaty between the United States and Canada. That treaty sets a perfect example how two neighboring countries can conclude a mutually beneficial agreement without harming the interest of the upstream riparian country. However, it is natural for an inexperienced country like Nepal to have misgivings that the Kosi high dam project wrongly orchestrated to benefit India only in the past would sail through while the Sun-Kosi dam project to serve almost exclusively Nepal would be dropped out. In terms of Kosi's development, Nepal need not have such fears. Our country is in a very strong bargaining position. The study would recommend the timing sequence of each of the projects relative to one another.

A simple technical analysis carried out at this stage will not fail to come to the following conclusions: The Sun-Kosi high dam project would have to be built first. It should be built as soon as possible to preclude the constantly growing threat from the Kosi floods. It is not a very big project. Nepal alone could implement this project under the financial and technical assistance of India and other donor countries.

The Kosi high dam project together with a 120-km long navigation canal in Indian territory is going to be a very big initiative. This project could provide Nepal access to the sea. A full study of the project would take many years. In later years, participation of renowned experts from other countries might be needed. Eventually, Nepal could be capable to implement various components of this project under its jurisdiction without involving India. Nepal might need only financial and technical assistance from India and other donors.

Unlike the Karnali and the Pancheshwar projects, the Kosi is crucial to the safety of a very large number of people in India. The people of Bihar and West Bengal are going to be directly affected by Kosi floods. The people in north-eastern Indian states, too, run the risk of being cut off from the rest of India. They can be expected to bring pressure on the Indian government to be more flexible in dealing with Nepal on Kosi's development.

India took up a study of the Kosi dam in 1946. The concrete dam proposed at that time with a height of 269 m was to be the highest in the world. The great Hoover dam in the United States with a height of mere 221 m was then the highest. There is only one concrete dam higher than 269 m - the 285-m Grand Dixene in Switzerland. Abundant information is available on planning storage reservoirs in Himalayan region for flood control. The most suitable example for Kosi's planning could be the Karnali feasibility study. If the Karnali reservoir planning criterion were applied, then the height of the Kosi dam would be almost close to the height of the 335-m Rogun dam under construction in the former Soviet Union.

The Kosi high dam project is going to be one of the largest projects undertaken in the world. So it will be a very big engineering challenge. We should beware of unintentional give-away. There should be no compromise on the optimum development of the Kosi. A less than optimum dam could preclude optimum development of the Kosi river for ever. It could deprive the peoples in India and Nepal long-lasting flood relief.

Completion of the engineering and other studies and the construction of the giant Kosi high dam project is expected to take a very long time. The implementation schedule of the China's giant Three Gorges project can give us an idea about the total time needed for the completion of the Kosi high dam project. It took China more than 20 years to complete the studies. More than 20 years have been allocated for the completion of the construction. The Kosi high dam project is not far behind the Three Gorges project in volume of work and engineering complexities. It will take a very long time to complete the construction of the Kosi high dam project even with sufficient financial resources.

Unfortunately, the condition of the Kosi river channel is deteriorating. The left bank of the river upstream of the barrage at Hanumannagar is being attacked at several vulnerable points whereas the riverbed is throughout rising. The attack of the Kosi river on the left bank is particularly serious near Chakarghati. It is almost the same spot from where the old Kosi river used to flow to the east. The left bank protection work carried out more than a decade ago under the loan assistance of the World Bank has temporarily helped to hold the river within its present course.

Sir Claude English, a renowned expert called in by the Indian government to advise on the Kosi barrage project, had cautioned about 40 years ago the Kosi would shift again back to its old course soon as a result of rapid aggradation of the river bed. Sir Claude's warning becomes all the more frightful considering the fact that the Kosi floods were relatively mild in the last three decades. Within the last 50 years, floods of 900, 000 cusecs and more have been observed twice. The latest such flood occurred in 1968. The maximum flood recorded after than is below 600,000 cusecs.

The fast-approaching danger of catastrophic floods calls for the provision of protection works without delay. It would be extremely risky to depend entirely on the Kosi dam project for flood control. A small project is needed to control the floods until the giant Kosi project comes into operation. The Sun-Kosi high dam is envisaged to precede the Kosi high dam project.

In 1997 an agreement was signed between Nepal and India to carry out feasibility studies of the Sun-Kosi and Kosi projects along with a navigation canal linking Nepal with the seaport. This agreement is a substantial modification to the earlier understanding reached between the prime ministers of Nepal and India that covered only the Kosi high dam. The modification was made based on the findings of Nepal explained to Indian side in the meeting. There is a very close interrelationship between the Sun-Kosi and the Kosi projects. This interrelationship required the inclusion of the Sun-Kosi dam project in Kosi's development. A simple analysis of both projects will suffice to illustrate why the Sun-Kosi project should be built first.

The diversion of the Sun-Kosi river at Kurule would be the most important project of Nepal in terms of agriculture development. This project would be precluded forever after the construction of the Kosi high dam project. Fortunately, the Kosi high dam project can be built even after the completion of the construction of the Sun-Kosi high dam project. The Kosi high dam along with a navigation canal to link Nepal with seaport is a very big project. It will take a very long time to implement this project. But the Kosi river is on the verge of shifting to the east. The Sun-Kosi project could control the Kosi's floods in the interim period. The urgency of Kosi development projects and their enormous size call for the full attention of government institutions and donor agencies. Donor agencies should help to carry out feasibility studies.

It is clear that the Sun-Kosi dam project should come ahead of the Kosi project. The sooner the Sun-Kosi project is completed the better it would be for millions of peoples in India and Nepal who have already sensed danger. They would be very grateful if the Nepal government decided to immediately launch the construction of the Sun-Kosi dam project. Such a move could be made even without waiting for the completion of the detailed feasibility report, primarily based on a swiftly prepared interim report. Such interim report updated from time to time as the feasibility study progresses could be used for preliminary discussions with the financing institutions, buyers of electricity and the Indian government. The Sun-Kosi dam project could be implemented without significantly raising the present level of external financing to Nepal in the water resources sector.

(Thapa is a water expert)