National 8 (Spotlight Weekly)

Premature Delight

Do arrival figures for June signal hope for the tourism industry? Not many are sure

By SANJAYA DHAKAL

In a welcome departure from what has been the norm in the last couple of months, the Nepal Tourism Board (NTB) actually came up with figures indicating sharp buoyancy in the volume of tourist arrivals for the month of June.

"The month of June has recorded a significant growth in total international visitor arrivals to the Kingdom of Nepal. June 2002 recorded an unprecedented 35 percent growth (over June 2001)," states a press release issued by the board.

Tourists : In short-supply

But private tourism entrepreneurs are not the least impressed with this latest revelation. "Well, the hotels are still empty and restaurants still deserted. What to make up of those figures, we don't know," said Hari Man Lama, CEO of Incentive Tours and Travels and San Sui Treks and Expedition. Lama's sentiments are shared by other members of his fraternity.

More importantly, the board's figures also pointed to a sharp increase in arrivals of Indian tourists. "This increase was contributed significantly by increase in Indian arrivals by a whopping 107 percent totaling 8,480. The pace of decline has softened for third country visitors as well for the month with a total of 5,361. This shows that tourists are coming back to Nepal and that the destination still has the same exotic charm for the visitors," states the board release.

Defending the veracity of the figures, Tek Bahadur Dangi, a director at the NTB, said, "Our figures are based on comparison to the same month last year."

The NTB figures state that the Australia leads the third-country arrival growth rate, with an increase of 150 percent, followed by Japan with a 68 percent growth. China, Denmark, France and Taiwan also show significant increase in arrival figures, it states.

"This is definitely good news for the tourism industry. Word of mouth has been our biggest source of publicity and it has worked in our favor this time as well. Word has got around that life in Nepal is normal and tourism industry is functioning smoothly," says NTB Chief Executive Officer Pradeep Raj Pandey. "At the same time, our promotional and marketing efforts in major markets like India, Japan, China, Australia, etc. are also bearing fruits. And if this growth rate were to continue, we will reach pre-crisis levels in the next few months," adds Pandey.

Although the jump in the arrival figure by 35 percent may seem pretty excellent, Pandey's excitement could prove premature, as one has to translate it in the proper perspective. Last year in June, there were virtually no tourists coming to Nepal except the herds of print and TV journalists who gathered in Kathmandu to cover the grisly palace massacre. So arrivals compared to June last year are bound to show a sharp rise anyway.

Not surprisingly, the private sector has not seriously responded to the NTB figures. "Certainly, there may be no doubt as to the veracity of the board figures. But speaking in real terms, the rise in June does not mean much to us entrepreneurs," said a hotelier.

For them, the important thing is whether the tourists will come in the next season that will start from September. Already the hotels and restaurants have started laying off employees, temporarily as well as permanently, in order to sustain themselves at a time when the tourists are merely trickling in. Until and unless the next season delivers, they are bound to rethink their business.

As things stand, there is little hope as not only domestic but even the international situation seem adverse to the global tourism. The fear of terrorist attacks has prevented western tourists from venturing out, especially on long-haul travel. Add to that the always-fluctuating scenario in the country and it does not need an expert analyst to predict the tourist flow in the coming days.