National 5 (Spotlight Weekly)

On the Brink of Nuclear War?

Heightened tensions between India and Pakistan pose an unprecedented threat of devastating war in the region

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

Nearly six months after sharing the dais at the Birendra International Convention Center in Kathmandu during the 11th SAARC Summit, the leaders of the two South Asian nuclear rivals were face to face at Almaty, Kazakhastan this week. But the distance between Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee and Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf - during the regional security summit - seemed as wide as ever.

The summer temperature in South Asia started simmering this year as the leaders from the two countries started speaking in terms of their nuclear arsenal. Having fought two of their three wars over the last four decades on Kashmir, the recent escalation of violence in the disputed territory gave a perfect setting. As nearly one million soldiers stand face to face for the last five months across the so-called line of control, patience seem to be wearing thin in New Delhi amid saber-rattling in Islamabad.

The growing tensions between the two South Asian neighbors rang alarm bells in powerful world capitals, including Washington DC, London, Moscow and Beijing. While British Secretary of State Jack Straw has already visited both countries urging them to maintain restraint, US Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, will be in the region next week. Russian President Vladimir Putin could be seen exercising his full diplomatic skills in Kazakhastan to bring the two leaders to the negotiating table. Beijing, too, expressed worry over the deteriorating situation in the region.

While the issue of Kashmir has remained an `apple of discord' for both India and Pakistan since their independence from the British rule in 1947, India has been urging the world community to look into what it calls cross-border terrorism in Kashmir as part of the US-led global fight against terrorism.

The terrorist attacks in the Indian parliament in December last year and recent escalation of violence in Kashmir brought relations between the two neighbors to an all-time low. India has demanded that Pakistan "put an end to state-funded terrorism, dismantle terrorist camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, take action against the 3,000 terrorists across the Line of Control and deliver on the list of 20 most-wanted terrorists."

"General Musharraf must keep his words of January 12 and May 27," Vajpayee told the regional meeting at Almaty on Tuesday. General Musharraf, on his part, argued that Pakistan was a dependable ally in the global fight against terror and was doing its best to control extremist elements within the country.

For the US, the latest tension between India and Pakistan has come at a time when its top officials are issuing warnings of fresh terrorist attacks on US territory. With Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden still at large, the US-led alliance cannot afford to divert attention toward another conflict close to Afghanistan.

And, what a conflict it would be? According to an estimate, up to 12 million people would die and an equal number of people would be seriously injured in a nuclear holocaust. According to INDIA TODAY magazine, 200,000 people will die instantly at ground zero (where the nuclear bomb will hit), blast wave will destroy buildings in a 10-km radius and 300,000 people will be injured, half of them severely within five hours. The bomb explosion will have a serious impact on the survivors over several years.

While India has declared its "no first use of the nuclear weapons policy," Pakistani President General Musharraf told CNN television on Saturday that no sane individual can even think of going into this unconventional war, whatever the pressures. Earlier, Pakistani officials had warned that they would be forced to exercise nuclear option in case of Indian attacks.

Despite millions of people in the region living below the poverty line, South Asia has emerged as one of the most militarized regions in the world. According to the Human Development Report of 1999, each dollar spent on the social sector in South Asia is matched by 2.5 dollars in the security-related expenditures.

"South Asia, today, stands at a crossroads. It has neither a secure past nor a secure future as the present itself is textured by uncertainty," writes Prof. Dhruba Kumar, a strategic analyst, in his article published in the book "Security in South Asia." "The security in South Asia thus needs to be re-imagined and reinterpreted in the context of the crisis of state caused by the failure of state building process."

While it will be a long way to go, the imminent need for the people in the region is to pressure their leadership to find peaceful solutions to the problems handed down to them by history. It has become much more urgent now, as nobody can afford the luxury of indulging in nuclear warfare, the costs of which would be simply beyond imagination. n