National 1 (Spotlight Weekly)

Psy War

Although the army indulges in psychological warfare against the rebels, a decisive victory still may be far away

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

It seemed the theater of war had descended on Kathmandu from the remote western hills. The residents of Kathmandu had, for the first time, an opportunity to have a look at the weapons employed by the Maoist rebels to overrun the police and army barracks and target innocent civilians.

Exbhibition of seized weapons : Sign of success

Exbhibition of seized weapons : Signs of success

The four-day-long display of arms, ammunition and literature seized by the security personnel in their ongoing operations against the Maoists at Tundikhel open theater during the weekend was seen as part of the psychological warfare waged by the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) against the rebels. Earlier, the government had declared bounty on the heads of top Maoist rebels, inviting criticism from the human rights community.

The latest display of arms in the heart of the capital by the RNA, which leads the unified command of the security forces, raised more questions than it could answer. Besides seizing weapons from the security forces, how are the rebels maintaining their supply of arms and ammunition? How do they operate their financial transactions? And, more importantly, how come the top Maoist leadership remains intact despite the seven-month-long hot pursuit by the armed forces since the declaration of the state of emergency in November last year?

Sources say the security forces have gathered credible evidence about the expanded network of the underground Maoist outfit both within and outside the country, including alleged involvement of foreign intelligence agency behind the insurgency. But the authorities are tight-lipped about any such possibility.
Given the common, open border with India, reports of Nepalese Maoist leaders operating freely on the Indian territory and their ability to mobilize support from the vast Nepalese community living and working in India, security officials admit that their counter-insurgency measures are likely to turn into a prolonged conflict.

The Maoist leadership, too, is feeling the heat, as displayed by its act of destroying precious infrastructure across the country. With nearly 2,000 rebels killed after the imposition of the state of emergency and their supply lines cut off by the army to some extent, the rebels want some respite to rearm and regroup their cadres, analysts say. The recent initiative by the Maoist leader, Comrade Prachanda, urging all the mainstream political parties in the country to find a "positive political way out" could be seen in this light. But the government's tough response - that they must lay down their arms as a prerequisite to reopen the negotiations - must have put them in a tight spot.

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba managed to extend the state of emergency for another three months - but at a huge cost. Besides dissolving the parliament and calling fresh polls, Deuba seems to be preparing to float a new political party in case the ruling party upholds the decision of its disciplinary committee to expel the premier from the ordinary membership of the Nepali Congress for three years.

With the onset of monsoon and general elections round the corner, Prime Minister Deuba - who also holds the defense portfolio - as well as the Royal Nepalese Army are under pressure to prove that security forces can make dramatic progress in their fight against the insurgents. Analysts say the rebels, too, might be waiting for an opportunity to mount some spectacular attacks in the vicinity of the capital to get extra mileage. The never-ending squabble within the ruling party may have given them a perfect setting.

Wary of possible criticism from the media and human rights groups, the government has taken into custody over 100 journalists over the last seven months, two dozen of whom are still behind bars. As neither side is least likely to claim to a decisive victory in the short run, civilian casualties and intolerance of the government toward the media could even grow in the days to come, said critics.

As the conflict prolongs, more and more Nepalese are looking for fables to explain and assess the current turn of events in the country. Wrote a noted commentator and royal appointee in the National Assembly, Janardan Acharya, in Nepal fortnightly magazine recently: "The Maoist insurgency is like a demon whose life rests on a pigeon in the dense forest beyond country's borders. The Prince has to kill the pigeon first to take hold of the demon."

Nepalese leaders must have heard this well-known fable more than once in their lifetime. As things stand now, they seem to be ignoring the truth rather than preparing to face the harsh reality.

The Death Toll

Nearly 1,000 security personnel and 1,900 Maoist rebels have died during clashes after the imposition of the state of emergency on November 26, last year, the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) said Friday. According to RNA headquarters, 150 soldiers, including ten officers, 744 policemen from Nepal Police and 97 policemen from Armed Police Force were killed during this period. Seven security personnel are still missing, the army said. While saying that 1,862 rebels were killed during the operations, the RNA said the actual number of the rebels killed could be over 2,600. The army has seized Rs. 7 million in Nepalese currency, Rs. 350,000 in foreign currency, 32 kg of gold and about 30 tonnes of food grain from the rebels during the same period. The RNA disclosed this information coinciding with the display of arms in the capital seized from the rebels. The latest figures put the number of people dead during the six-year-old Maoist "people's war" at close to 5,000.

Pranjali to Represent Nepal in JAI

Pranjali Singh, an O level student at Shuvatara School in Kathmandu, has been selected to represent Nepal in the international student program of Junior Achievement International (HYPERLINK "http://www.jaintl.org" <www.jaintl.org>) being held at Chicago, Illinois, in the USA later this month (June 18-26). Sponsored by the Marmon Group of Industries and hosted by the Illinois Institute of Technolgoy (IIT), the program will be attended by nearly 100 students from 80 countries around the world. Known as the Marmon Group 2002 Global Trade Institute (MGTTI), the program aims at helping young students to understand global trade and network among tomorrowís entrepreneurs and leaders. ìI hope to learn a lot from the conference and share it with my friends, teachers and community back home,î said Pranjali.