National 8 (Spotlight Weekly)

The Power Play

After dissolving the parliament and extending state of emergency, premier Deuba moves on to take hold of the ruling party. But will he succeed?

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

At 4:40 p. m. on Monday, the second day of the general convention meet called by premier Sher Bahadur Deuba, a senior minister in the Deuba cabinet, Chiranjivi Wagle, announced from the dais of Birendra International Convention Center (BICC) that the meet had turned itself into the General Convention of the party. He then handed over the chair to powerful minister and his colleague, Khum Bahadur Khadka, Thus began the journey toward formal split in the 55-year-old party.

Deuba : On a new course

Earlier in the day, a meeting between premier Deuba and party president Koirala, accompanied by their key aides, had failed to find a "compromise formula" to accommodate both the warring factions within the same umbrella.

On Tuesday (June 18), former Speaker and centrist leader within the party, Ram Chandra Poudel, issued a three-line statement through official RSS news agency, saying that his bid to mediate between the rival factions had failed.

Though several delegates walked out of the convention hall sensing imminent split in the party, the pro-Deuba faction declared "amendment" in the party's statute that stipulates† two-third of the members present (instead of the two-third members of the GC)† to depose the party president. By Tuesday evening, a no-trust motion against Koirala had been declared passed "unanimously" by the House, without giving any chance for the latter to present his case. The meet also formed an "Election Commission" to elect a new president to the same old party.

At 7 p. m. Tuesday, escorted by the security paraphernalia, premier Deuba waved to a cheering crowd of supporters, most of them below 30, and told the state-owned media that the `General Convention' was compelled to "expel" the party as Mr. Koirala had refused any type of reconciliation within the party. "The Nepali Congress belongs to us since we are in majority," he declared. A former Congress MP and Deuba aide, Hom Nath Dahal, told reporters that the new party president (Prime Minister Deuba was declared the new president on Wednesday) would visit the Office of Election Commission to register the NC led by himself.

The four-week long tussle within the ruling party, following the unilateral decision of the Prime Minister to dissolve the parliament and call snap polls, culminated in the form of the vertical split. Mr. Deuba had convened the meeting of General Convention members on Sunday against the party's decision to expel from the ordinary membership of the party for three years. As expected, the GC meeting "withdrew" party's disciplinary action against premier Deuba, Communications Minister J. P. Gupta and a number of Congress leaders and workers.

The Nepali Congress central office, on its part, termed the entire exercise as "ridiculous."† "The meeting called by a person expelled from the ordinary membership of the party (i.e. premier Deuba) is outright unconstitutional," said NC spokesman Arjun Narsingh K. C. "Its decisions, hence, are also illegal and need not to be considered." In a press statement censored by the government-media, NC central office alleged that the gathering called by misusing state machinery was nothing but a mockery of the party and democracy. The party also accused the government of "shameless misuse" of the state-owned media to circulate a flood of lies. While the rebel group claimed that they had a signature of 797 GC members in their support, NC central office said over 1,000 GC members out of the 1400 GC members in the party were in support of the party's action against the premier. "Fake people have been designated in the gathering in the name of the GC members," alleged NC general secretary Sushil Koirala.

Those who had witnessed the Congress tradition of patching up their differences at the last minute (as was the case in 1994 when then party president KP Bhattarai had withdrawn disciplinary action against then premier Koirala for dissolving the parliament), hoped that the faction-ridden party would be able to find a way out. The rebel camp led by Deuba had demanded reconstitution of party's entire committees and departments, besides withdrawing disciplinary action against him. But after sensing that the Deuba group had not been able to rope in even half of the GC members, party president Koirala refused even to call the meeting of the NC central committee to discuss the issue.

Former prime minister and former party president KP Bhattarai-who had issued a statement saying that he would not allow the party to split while he was alive-- did not make any last hour move to save the party. Interestingly, his key aides including Basu Risal and Yog Prasad Upadhyay remained absent from the rebel meet.

While the entire exercise looked on the surface as a continuation of rivalry between the Koirala and Deuba factions within the ruling party, Congress insiders said Koirala was skeptical about Mr. Deuba's role in dissolving the house and extending the state of emergency. While prime minister has claimed that general elections will be held in time, Koirala supporters believe that the government will not be able to hold free and fair elections amid growing Maoist violence thereby pushing the country into deep constitutional crisis after November 13.

Interestingly, the "no-trust motion" filed against Koirala alleged him of failing to hold talks with the rebels and later to mobilize security forces to fight the rebels. Those watching the "Holeri episode" that forced Mr. Koirala to resign from the post of Prime Minister in July last year say the seeds of division in the ruling party had been sown right at that moment.

A veteran in Nepalese politics, Koirala is said to watching the Supreme Court's decision on the dissolution of the parliament. He is also said to be optimistic that majority of the party workers will come back to the mainstream if the Election Commission refuses to register the old party under new leadership. Meanwhile, Deuba supporters are upbeat that they will be gaining within the party and in the next elections due to the virtue of being in power. Analysts are, however, worried to see that prime minister Deuba--after losing the support of his own party-might be much more vulnerable to push and pull from different quarters, including the forces behind-the-scenes both within the country and beyond.