National 2 (Spotlight Weekly)

Leadership War

Neither man can expect to gain much mileage from the vertical split in the party

By KESHAB POUDEL

"Men will not look at things as they really are, but as they wish them to be - and are ruined. In politics there are no perfectly safe courses; prudence consist in choosing the least dangerous one," Nicolo Machiavelli wrote in his book "The Prince".

Although 79-year-old Nepali Congress leader Girija Prasad Koirala and his principal rival, 52-year-old Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, have chosen their own political paths, the final word on the fate of the Nepali Congress is far from written. For the moment, Koirala, by expelling a few individuals in the other camp, and Deuba, by opting not to register a new party, think they have chosen the least dangerous course.

Koirala : Will he overcome the setback?

Despite the serious challenge to his leadership, Koirala seems determined to lead the party as long as he remains physically capable to doing so. Koirala's firm declaration to this effect in an address to supporters in Pokhara is understandable, as he still commands respect as a strong leader among a large number of workers.

Although deserted by a strong team of second-generation leaders - many of whom he once mentored - Koirala maintains a strong grip on the party. He is in the process of naming another team to revitalize the organization. "I still hold the Nepali Congress and the splinter group is no more than a small faction," said Koirala in his speech in Pokhara. "We are strong enough to face any challenge."

The challenge in front of Koirala, however, is not easy. Despite the disadvantage posed by his age, Koirala is determined to punish the breakaway group led by Deuba. After the exodus of such a large number of second-generation leaders, however, those that remain in his camp are competing for leadership. How this contest plays out would determine the vitality of the party and, to a significant extent, the democratic evolution of the country.

Deuba may have taken away powerful and influential leaders, but Koirala still hold the goodwill of the party. "Everything is divided, but the goodwill of the party remains with Koirala," said a political analyst. "Despite his power and strength, Prime Minister Deuba has a tough job in challenging Koirala, who is pragmatic enough to compromise with any force."

Pledging true reconciliation, Koirala has called on workers in the rival group to return to the mainstream. Whether that spirit can last long remains unclear. Koirala is said to be easily misled and confused. In the presence of family members, including cousin Sushil Koirala, the Nepali Congress president cannot defy their arguments. This weakness has often pushed Koirala from one extreme to the other.

Known for his ability to strike compromise under any circumstances, Koirala has built a political career as a tireless organizer. In recent years, however, he has often succumbed to the bad advice from his coterie, especially from those people who have no sense of the party's history or individual strength.

Although his former student Deuba has been using derogatory language, Koirala has chosen comparatively decent words to describe the actions and attitudes of his new rivals. Despite the claims made by the Deuba camp, it is going to be very difficult to sideline a seasoned politician like Koirala. If Deuba manages to do so, the party leadership would unquestionably fall on his shoulders. For the moment, both factions of the Nepali Congress have chosen their roads. It remains to be seen whose is less dangerous.