National 8 (Spotlight Weekly)

Politics After The Bandh

As the government and Maoists enter what many consider a decisive phase of war, chances of a peaceful resolution seem remote

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

As soon as the five-day shutdown strike (April 23-27) —the first ever in the country's history — concluded Saturday, rumors had started to fly in Kathmandu's streets that the rebels were going to call another strike —this time for ten days. While there are no indications as yet if the Maoists would repeat the same old tactics, the five-day strike would be remembered as a watershed in the Nepalese people's and government's response to the six-year-old insurgency.

On the very first day of the Nepal bandh, the government declared bounty on the heads of top Maoist leaders ranging from Rs. 1 million to Rs. 5 million. Anyone providing information leading to their arrest would receive half of that award, the Home Ministry said. "Those submitting weapons would be compensated monetarily, provided a job and their safety will be ensured," an official announcement said.

While the announcement shocked a large section of the community, it also pointed toward a decisive phase of the government's battle against insurgency. As the country's constitution bars capital punishment, human rights groups and political parties including ruling Nepali Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala criticized the government's move.

The response from the side of the rebels was equally furious. Three days after the government's announcement, Maoist supremo Comrade Prachanda issued a statement saying that his party had also issued orders to capture top leaders of the state in order to try them into "people's courts." As the government and rebels have come face to face, chances for political exit, if any, look very remote. "While pursuing the military options the government should let the doors for negotiations open," said Koirala, in his hometown Biratnagar last week.

But buoyed by the increasing international support in its fight against terrorism, the Deuba administration is least likely to heed its own party supremo's advice, critics say. Having succeeded in taking into custody some key Maoist leaders in the capital valley and outside and raiding their shelters, the Royal Nepalese Army is said to be preparing to give a final blow to the rebels.

Prime Minister and Defense Minister Deuba's strong words also pointed to such a mindset. "The insurgents who are creating an atmosphere of fear and terror would never succeed and the Maoists would be crushed," Deuba told official RSS news agency Sunday. He reiterated that the dialogue (with the rebels) was not possible until they handed over the arms to the security agencies. Deuba, who had walked all the way to Singha Durbar to register a no-trust motion in the ruling parliamentary party against then premier Koirala defying a ëbandh' last year, said political stability was essential for preventing terrorism.

Analysts say while pursuing the military options and seeking international support through ëquiet diplomacy' (See: Another Story), the government has done very little to rally active political support in favor of the security operations and against the insurgency. "A military strategy succeeds only if it is backed by a suitable political strategy," wrote Fareed Zakariya, a noted columnist, in NEWSWEEK in the context of the Israel-Palestine conflict.

That might be more than true in the case of Nepal also. For the first time in six years of insurgency, all the political parties represented in the parliament denounced Maoist insurgency and urged them to withdraw the prolonged strike, stop destroying physical infrastructure and cease violent activity to resume talks with the government.

By ignoring the joint call made by major political parties and making people hostile by cutting off their drinking water supply lines and hydro power plants, among others, the rebels seem to be pursuing single-mindedly their objective of aggravating the crisis. With the economy heading toward unprecedented crisis giving rise to social unrest, it could be a perfect ground for the rebels to operate. They are under pressure (from the army) but not under compulsion to seek a negotiated settlement, say critics.

"We should not forget that the Maoists would be forced to come to the table of negotiations the very next day they cease to enjoy unrestricted access in the Indian territory across the border," writes Pushkar Gautam, a former Maoist commander, in Himal khabarpatrika.

The government also seems to be undermining this vital front in its all-out war against the insurgency.