National 2 (Spotlight Weekly)

High Stakes

As the army intensifies its operations against the Maoists, Prime Minister Deuba ventures to rally crucial support from global powers

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

As security forces were pressing ahead with one of their major operations against the Maoists in the rebel stronghold of Lisnelek in the mid-western district of Rolpa, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba left for the United States Sunday leading the country's delegation to the United Nations special session on children taking place in New York between May 8-10.

However, it is Deuba's scheduled meeting with US President George W. Bush on May 7 that has drawn all the media attention. During his meetings with President Bush, Secretary of State Colin Powell, members of Congress and other senior US officials, the prime minister will seek Washington's moral and logistic support for his government's fight against the Maoist insurgency. Deuba will also be visiting London to meet Prime Minister Tony Blair on the way back home.

Prime Minister Deuba's trip is taking place within five months of Powell's visit to Nepal — the first by a US secretary of state. His high-profile meeting with President Bush at the Oval Office marks the strategic importance Nepal has gained over the past few years, say analysts.

"US interest in Nepal has been more symbolic than real. The Himalayan kingdom lost strategic significance for the United States after Washington established relations with Beijing in 1972. But it has regained significance since September 11," said Dr. Chitra Tiwari, a political analyst based in Washington D. C. "Developing US-Nepal military relations have the potential of raising regional tension to a new level as India and China watch the developments. Neither is likely to welcome an external power taking over this traditional buffer," he added.

Mindful of the sensitivities of Nepal's powerful neighbors, US officials have said they don't want to establish a military base in the kingdom. US Ambassador to Nepal Michael E. Malinowski told a function in the capital Friday that the US government neither wanted a military base in Nepal nor sought to use the kingdom as a springboard to jump against another country (read China). The speculation is "erroneous and foolish," the envoy said. "Our interests in Nepal touch many aspects like security, stability and its development. We have a deep interest in the protection of democracy in Nepal as part of America's ideological commitment," he added.

Deuba's visit to the United States also coincides with the Bush administration's proposal for US$ 20 million in new aid to the kingdom. A US military team visited different insurgency-hit areas of Nepal to assess the country's military needs.

While officials are upbeat about the outcome of Deuba's visit to Washington DC and London, the government's fight against the insurgency seems to have entered what many believe is a decisive phase.

A huge build-up of security forces in Rolpa launched a massive assault on a rebel training center and base at Lisne region last week. The number of rebel believed killed ranges between 200 and 600. While actual figures were still unknown, the joint operations by the security forces are likely to deal a heavy blow to the underground outfit militarily as well as morally.

As the conflict intensifies, major political parties as well the rebels themselves have hinted toward the possibility of a cease-fire and resumption of peace talks. The rebels had walked out of a four-month-old fragile peace process in November last year and resumed violence.

Top government officials, however, say talks could resume only after the rebels lay down their arms. Deuba reiterated that stand last week. "No talks are possible with the followers of Pol Pot, or a force that has turned itself into a criminal gang," he declared.

Foreign Minister : Diplomacy in full swing

At a time when major political parties were urging the government and rebels to resume talks, Royal Nepalese Army headquarters issued a statement urging Nepalis to remain alert and not to get tangled in rumors of talks being spread by the insurgents. "The terrorists are making efforts to smuggle ultra-modern weapons like AK-47 rifles into the country in secret collaboration with international terrorist groups," the army statement said. "The security forces are fully committed to government's view that it is meaningless to hold talks with the Maoists until they surrender their weapons," it added.

An all-party meeting convened by ruling Nepali Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala at his party office Sunday expressed reservations about the political overtones of the statement, reports said. As the Deuba administration is pursuing an all-out military response, analysts say, talks could resume only if the ruling party replaces Deuba as prime minister.

Despite the intense internal power struggle within the ruling party, there were no indications of serious attempts to unseat Deuba in the immediate future. However, when the state of emergency comes up for another six-month extension in parliament later this month, interesting political re-alignments could take place, analysts said.

The rebels, meanwhile, are undermining the country's development infrastructure. They have burned down hundreds of village development committee buildings, post offices, health posts and blown up bridges, telecom towers and power plants. Himal khabarpatrika estimated that property worth Rs. 12 billion may have been destroyed during the insurgency. Similarly, the number of deaths in the five months since the imposition of the state of emergency has surpassed the number of people killed in the preceding six years. The total number of deaths from the insurgency is well over 4,000, latest reports say.

"As both sides are keen to resolve the issue through the gun and coercive measures, the majority of the people advocating a peaceful solution have been pushed to the sidelines," said Rajendra Dahal, editor of Himal khabarpatrika.

As the security forces step up their pressure against the rebels, how the latter would retaliate remains to be seen. The rebels have hit "soft targets" whenever they were under pressure. The success of the government's military operations would depend on how effectively it can cut off the supplies and other support the rebels are enjoying from across the border, say analysts. What can be said with certainty is that the fight against the insurgency is going to prove costly to the nation.