National 7 (Spotlight Weekly)

The Uncertainty Pays

With an indecisive government at the center and political vacuum at the grassroots, the rebels are calling the shots

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

On Sunday night (October 27), thousands of Maoist rebels surrounded Rumjatar airport in the eastern hilly district of Okhaldhunga and mounted attacks from all sides on the Royal Nepalese Army troops manning the tower. After a nearly five-hour battle, the security forces were able torepulse the rebel group and cause considerable damage on their side. Thirty-six rebel bodies were recovered from the site of encounter.

In another far-western hilly district, Bajura, a group of rebels mounted attacks on a security patrol the details of which were not available till Tuesday morning. But what was obvious from these two major incidents, after Lokendra Bahadur Chand was appointed Prime Minister on October 11, was that morale of the rebels remains high and their fighting power intact.

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In a significant departure from the previous Sher Bahadur Deuba-led government's insistence on laying down arms by the rebels as a prerequisite for the talks, Premier Chand made it clear that his government had kept doors "open for talks" without any precondition. "We are awaiting their response," he said.

The belated response from the Maoists was full of rhetoric. The statement issued by Maoist supremo on October 24 asked for an all-party dialogue, including the Maoists as well as the King and representatives of the intelligentsia, to find a way out of the present political stalemate. While criticizing the recent royal move of undertaking executive powers by His Majesty as against the spirit of the constitution, Prachanda reiterated his party's demand for a "forward-looking political way out" that includes elections to the constituent assembly and formation of a new constitution by that assembly. "If the present military suppression is continued then people would have no other alternative than to move forward for a decisive and historic struggle," he warned.

As a section of intelligentsia and leaders from major political parties have been advocating elections to the constituent assembly as a way out of the present impasse, Nepali Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala said that supporting such a demand at the moment would amount to playing in the hands of regressive forces. If the dissolved parliament was not reinstated, things would take a dangerous course "affecting the system in place, including the monarchy", said the septuagenarian leader.

While many question the rationale and process of reinstating the already dissolved House, the crisis of confidence between the King and major political parties has not helped the matter, analysts say. The failure of the Chand government to open a credible channel of negotiations with the rebels and evolve a consensus among political parties to deal with the insurgency and holding forthcoming polls has made the matters complicated, they said.

There have not been any signs of reconciliation from the palace. Both Nepali Congress and CPN-UML have demanded that the King correct "errors" in the royal proclamation on October 11 and constitute a new government as per Article 128 of the constitution. The said article, meant for transitional phase in the interim period in 1990, says that the King shall form such a government in consultation with major political parties in the country.

Talking to reporters at the "tea reception" organized by the UML on Vijaya Dashami here last Sunday (Oct. 20), Koirala said the formation of the present government led by Chand was against the letter and spirit of the constitution and hence, his party would not join it.

UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal, too, rejected offers to join the Chand administration "under present circumstances." He added that Premier Chand should take initiative to correct what he called the constitutional errors.

Though Premier Chand is said to be preparing to expand his cabinet without support from major political parties in the next few weeks, it is least likely that his government would be able to mobilize political support unless King Gyanendra intervenes himself and listens to political leaders, say analysts.

"Even before opening dialogue with the insurgents, what is most urgent is reconciliation between the King and political parties," said Rajendra Dahal, editor of Himal Khabarpatrika. "The united voice of the King and democratic forces would be decisive in bringing the rebels to the table of negotiations," he added.

Chairman of Human Rights and Peace Society, Krishna Pahadi, argues that confusion and lack of purpose at the central level and political void at the grassroots level have given a fertile ground for the Maoists. "If the government doesn't move towards some sort of political processincluding holding elections, the days ahead would be even difficult," he said.

Analysts do agree that former premier Deuba's decision to dissolve the House of Representatives and call mid-term polls in November and not to extend the term of local bodies have dealt a blow to the political process in the country. The royal move to dismiss Deuba terming him "incompetent" for failing to hold elections in time was nothing less than a "shock treatment." But lack of initiative to bring all the nationalist and democratic forces together to face the onslaught of insurgency has created a situation of deadlock benefiting nobody else but the rebels, they say.

"At a time when two extreme forces (extreme right and extreme left) have come face to face, political parties should play their role maturely in favor of restoration of peace and strengthening of democracy and to take the † country out of the present political conflict," wrote Shanker Pokhrel, former UML MP, in Dristi weekly. "It is obvious that Nepali people have sought an alternative to corrupt leaders and incompetent political parties but not that of democracy."

As the country is passing through the worst crisis in its history, no political leader has come forward to point towards the root of the present crisis. "There is a 'grand design' to destabilize democracy right from its restoration in 1990," said Koirala. He, however, did not point out the source and consequences of the so-called "design" on Nepal as a nation and on the democratic polity.

As the political stalemate continues, human rights violations continue to spiral. After sending fact-finding missions to 35 out of 75 districts in the country, the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has criticized both the government forces as well as the Maoists for increasing incidences of human rights violations and abuses from both sides.

While the security forces have been blamed for extra-judicially killing people in fake encounters, the Maoists have been accused of extortion, looting, destroying infrastructure, recruiting child soldiers and indiscriminately killing private citizens and political workers. "Civil society needs to exert pressure on both the sides to end human rights violations," said Pahadi.