Cover Story (Spotlight Weekly)

MAOIST INSURGENCY
The Deepening Crisis

By killing over 100 security personnel in Sindhuli and Arghakhanchi districts during the weekend, the Maoist insurgents establish that they still retain enough strength to disrupt the polls scheduled for November. As political parties are too reluctant to take a fresh initiative, the caretaker Deuba administration has few options on tackling the crisis

By BHAGIRATH YOGI

When her husband, assistant sub-inspector of police Surendra Basnet, made a call from the ilaka police post at Bhiman in Sindhuli district Saturday morning, Ambika Basnet talked about household affairs and said she had been invited by her maternal home on the occasion of 'Teej' (the leading festival of Hindu women) two days later. She also asked her husband to take vacation at any cost next month so that the family could celebrate Dashain together at their house in Lalitpur. The very next morning, she got the message that her husband was killed in a daring Maoist raid.

As the dreams of Ambika got shattered early this week, so were those of family members of over 100 security personnel killed in daring Maoist raids at Sindhuli and Arghakhanchi within a span of less than 24 hours. The family members of hundreds of rebels killed during the clash with security forces and buried by their own comrades on the bank of the Bangi Khola at Sandhikharkha, the district headquarters of Arghakhanchi early this week, may never know that they have lost their relatives forever.

Security forcs : Tough job

The humanitarian crisis generated by the six-year-old Maoist insurgency continues unabated, as both sides in the conflict see guns as the only way of attaining ultimate victory. A child was killed in the crossfire and Maoist rebels allegedly shot dead another local woman at Sandhikharka when she was a little late in opening the doors for them. Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, who drew flak for not visiting Mangalsen - the district headquarters of the far-western district of Achham - after the Maoist attack in February this year, visited Sandhikharka within 48 hours of the attack. The prime minister and other senior officials were shocked to see the level of destruction and devastation caused at the district headquarters by the rebels, reportedly led by Maoist leaders Top Bahadur Rayamajhi and Pampha Bhusal who come from the district.

Premier Deuba assured that the government would release funds to reconstruct government offices and provide compensation to families whose relatives who were killed or whose houses were burnt by the rebels. The rebels had looted over Rs.10 million during the raids - nearly Rs.2 million worth of cash and gold from the local branch of Rastriya Banijya Bank and Rs. 80 million kept at the local military camp for safety reasons to be distributed to the government employees as Dashain 'peski'.

Barely a day after mounting a heavy attack on Bhiman ilaka police post in Sindhuli district in the central hills, thousands of Maoist guerrillas descended on Sandhikharka, some 300 km south west from the capital Kathmandu, on Sunday. The heavily armed rebels engaged the local bases of civilian police, armed police and Royal Nepalese Army and overpowered them after a few hours' gunbattle. They also torched and ransacked all the government districts in the headquarters except the district hospital. The details of the destruction were not available to the rest of the country even 48 hours after the raid, as telephone facilities in the district remain disrupted for the last several months due to the Maoists' attack on a local repeater station of the state-owned Nepal Telecommunications Corporation.

Local leaders say utter failure of intelligence and lack of response from central authorities led to the humiliating defeat of government forces in Sandhikharka. "There had been rumors of impending Maoist attacks for the last one month and local security agencies had also demanded additional strength. But there was no response," said former UML lawmaker from Arghakhanchi Dr. Dilli Raj Khanal, who left Sandhikharka Sunday morning to attend a meeting in Kathmandu. "The government should immediately start reconstruction of the district headquarter and send a team of medical personnel to check the threat of an epidemic," said Dr. Khanal. He also demanded that the government take measures to ensure security and safety of the local people.

Why now?

The time chosen by the underground outfit to mount devastating attacks has baffled many. It was generally believed that the rebels wanted to take benefit of the transitional phase after the nine-month-old state of emergency expired on August 28. While Prime Minister Deuba was in Brussels, the rebels started their spree of killing Nepali Congress workers, burning down government offices and setting off bombs in different parts of the capital to gain maximum publicity. Given the top Maoist leadership's repeated demand that the government lift the state of emergency and restore the people's fundamental rights, analysts expected that the rebels would not do anything that would force the government to re-impose the emergency.

A Maoist : Mission destruction

"It is difficult to understand why the Maoists chose to mount big attacks at a time when initiatives for peace talks were being taken from different sides," said Padma Ratna Tuladhar, a senior human rights activist who was one of the mediators in the failed government-Maoist peace talks last year. "Perhaps they may have sensed that the government was not serious towards talks."

According to Tuladhar, there is a deep-seated crisis of confidence between the government and the rebels. There has not been any significant political development to bridge the gap ever since the rebels chose to walk out of the peace talks last year. "At a time when the polls are only a couple of months away, finding ways of restoring peace is very important. But it is less likely that serious negotiations could take place between the caretaker government and the rebels. Hence, political parties must take serious initiatives to resume the peace process," Tuladhar added.

Political fallout

Though Prime Minister Deuba dissolved the House of Representatives in May and called for general elections in November this year amid intense infighting within the ruling Nepali Congress, nobody is sure if the elections will be held in time and that, too, in a peaceful manner.

"How can elections be held in such a situation?" asked former prime minister and president of the parent Nepali Congress Girija Prasad Koirala. "First of all, there should be attempts to bring the Maoist insurgents into mainstream politics. If all the political parties make a joint appeal, the Maoists will be forced to join the mainstream," he added.

Analysts say that with the escalation in violence and fate of the polls still uncertain, Nepal could be heading toward a serious constitutional crisis. "There were signs of such a crisis as soon as Prime Minister Deuba recommended dissolution of the House of Representatives in May. But no political party paid enough attention," said Professor Krishna Khanal, a political scientist, at a talk program in the capital last week.

According to Professor Khanal, the present crisis has its roots in the circumstances in which the multiparty system was restored in 1990. "The ownership of the system was in crisis right from the beginning. Political parties took part in the system technically but never mapped a proper course."

The 1990 constitution was a compromise document among the Nepali Congress, left forces led by UML and the king. Though everybody in the compact may not have been equally satisfied, it was expected that democracy in Nepal would thrive amid strong international support and cooperation. However, as the political process failed to accommodate marginal communities and address systemic inefficiency, disenchantment was bound to happen.

Then entered the Maoists. Through the use of sheer terror and violence, the once little-known underground outfit has established itself as a major political force in the country. Despite their call for abolishing the multiparty democracy, the Maoists have said they want to protect whatever little rights the people have been able to gain out of the 1990 people's movement.

Analysts say the ensuing political crisis is only a reflection of the intense power battle between the palace supported by the army, the democratic forces led by Nepali Congress and UML and the Maoists. Obviously, the role of the Maoists is crucial to determining whether democracy can flourish in Nepal.

"With the declaration of the state of emergency, the military has emerged as a political factor in Nepal," said Professor Khanal. "The issue needs to be seriously considered rather than dealing it as per one's convenience."

What next?

As the world recalls the September 11 terror attacks on New York City and Washington DC a year ago, the war against terrorism has become a buzzword in many parts of the globe. As soon as he took over, Prime Minister Deuba tried his best to gather international support to fight against Maoist insurgency and also gained reasonable support in his endeavors. But his failure in opening up a political process and lately, his own crisis of political legitimacy, haven not helped him, say critics. And, this has raised bigger questions.

"While there are problems of Maoist insurgency, governance and law and order in the country, the most urgent problem is the lack of a legitimate political leadership," said Rajendra Dahal, editor of Himal khabarpatrika. "Unless this problem is resolved, the path to elections is far away and fullof obstacles."

With a crisis of confidence deepening between the government and Maoists, the government and political parties and other actors, Nepal seems to be moving deeper into an unprecedented crisis. Only strong leadership could seek support from all sides to manage the problem within the country and bargain with the 'external force' that is believed to be providing logistic support and safe haven to the Maoist leadership. Rather than opening the door to a way out, the upcoming elections have turned out to be a major roadblock for any viable solution. What a dilemma Nepalese politics is in.

Major Maoist Assaults (2000-02)

February 19, 2000: A police post at Ghartigaon in Rolpa district - 15 policemen killed and 20 more injured, some seriously.

June 8, 2000: A police post at Panchkatiya in Jajarkot district - 12 policemen, seven civilians, including five children, killed.

September 24, 2000: Dolpo headquarters Dunai - 15 policemen dead, 40 injured, 11 more abducted.

September 26, 2000: A police post, a forest office and a bank at Bhorletar in Lamjung district - eight policemen killed, seven others injured.

April 1, 2001: A police post at Rukumkot in Rukum district - 31 policemen dead, 11 injured and 24 more abducted.

July 12, 2001: Police post at Holeri in Rolpa district - a policeman dead, two injured and more than 70 kidnapped.

November, 24, 2001: Dang district headquarters Ghorahi -11 armymen and nine policemen dead, several injured, Chief District Officer abducted. Syangja district headquarters Waling - 14 policemen dead, dozens injured.

November 25, 200: Solukhumbu district headquarters Salleri - 34 policemen, five armymen, Chief District Officer and a land revenue officer dead, many injured.

(After the state of emergency)

February 3, 2002: A police post at Khanalthok in Kavre district - 16 policemen dead.

February 17, 2002: Achham district headquarters Mangalsen and a local airport - 76 policemen , 57 soldiers , Chief District Officer, his spouse, district intelligence officer and a civilian dead, 11 injured.

February 21, 2002: A police post at Sitalpati in Salyan district - 34 policemen dead, eight injured.

April 12, 2002: Simultaneous attacks on police bases at Lamahi and Satbariya in Dang district - 48 policemen dead, 14 injured, five missing.

September 8, 2002: Bhiman police post in Sindhuli district - 49 policemen dead, 22 injured.

September 9, 2002 : Sandhikharka, district headquarters of Arghakhanchi, 60 security personnel killed, nearly three dozen injured.