National 2 (Spotlight Weekly)

Fantasy vs. Reality

As political leaders kick off their election campaign, some intellectuals are wallowing in conjecture

By KESHAB POUDEL

Nepali Congress leader Girija Prasad Koirala travelled to the western terai town of Bhairawa to address a mass meeting. The 79-year-old former prime minister urged party workers to prepare for forthcoming polls. CPN-UML leader Bamdev Gautam was in Surkhet, a key Maoist-affected district of the mid-western region, to motivate his party members.

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Home Minister Khum Bahadur Khadka and Minister of State of Health Mohan Bahadur Basnet were in their own constituencies, seeking to convince supporters - and the nation at large - that the elections would be held on schedule. Former deputy prime minister and Nepali Congress leader Ram Chandra Poudel addressed a meeting of trade union workers in Chitwan, underscoring the centrality of free and fair elections to the democratic process. The Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) district committees in Sindhupalchowk and Nuwakot cleared the names of Pashupati Sumsher Rana and Dr. Prakash Chandra Lohani as candidates.

As leaders of the country's major political parties are preparing to seek a fresh mandate from the people, a section of urban intellectuals is speculating about alternatives in case of a constitutional crisis sparked by the government's inability to hold the polls on November 23 as scheduled. This is not the first time intellectuals have tried to predict a dire future based on hypothetical conditions.

Two months ago, when the Supreme Court was considering several petitions challenging Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba's decision to dissolve the House of Representatives, a brand of intellectuals declared that multiparty democracy would die in case the court did not reinstate the lower house. After the court unanimously quashed those petitions, a new round of speculation began on whether the government was capable of hold the elections on schedule. Conjecture has quickly turned into cynicism, and the intellectuals involved seem to be enjoying every moment of it.

Much maligned they might be, politicians are the most practical and optimistic of tribes in the current situation. Those paid to think constructively and foster a healthy national debate, on the other hand, have become the most prominent prophets of doom. The recent statements of former chief justice Biswonath Upadhyaya, former justice Laxman Prasad Aryal and some other lawyers show that they do not mind confusing the country even at a time when it needs candour and encouragement the most.

"I don't want to go into hypothetical situations. Since there is a legitimate government, monarchy, police and army, the state is capable enough to hold the elections on schedule," says an analyst. "If one starts to judge the world on a hypothetical basis, every conclusion can be drawn. What will happen if there is a nuclear war between India and Pakistan? Preparing for the worst is one thing. But we cannot go on basing our actions and requirements on hypotheses."

At a time when the leaders of the major political parties are criss-crossing the country as part of the election campaign, how can intellectuals and others be so obsessed with their dire predictions? Political leaders can explain the reality of the situation. Every country in South Asia has faced insurgencies or unrest, but they have been able to hold elections in accordance with their constitution. Sri Lanka has held many elections under the shadow of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam's threats. India has held elections in† Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab and other states wracked by separatist violence.

"Our country has proved its capability in holding successful general elections in the past, and it is still capable to do so," says Gautam. "If elections cannot be held, the people will want to know why. There is no alternative to elections, and they must be held at any cost."

Despite the intellectuals' cynicism, political parties and the Election Commission are getting ready for the democratic exercise. In an all-party meeting, the Election Commissioners sought suggestions from various political parties on ways of ensuring free and fair elections.

"It is not easy to face elections when the law-and-order situation is abnormal. But we don't have an alternative," says RPP leader and former prime minister Surya Bahadur Thapa. "Our party wants a solution to the present political crisis."

Although rumors and speculations continue to dominate the national agenda, political leaders are gradually accelerating their election campaign. There are difficulties in holding the elections, but, as most political leaders insist, there is simply no alternative.