National 2 (Spotlight Weekly)

Unpredictable Course

Words and actions of the political leaders are divergent even when the country is veering towards dangerous and gloomy path

By KESHAB POUDEL

From prime minister Surya Bahadur Thapa to Congress leader Girija Prasad Koirala and CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal, all of them have drawn similar conclusions that the elections cannot be held without bringing the Maoists to the mainstream.

The Maoists, too, have declared that announcement of elections right now will be tantamount to resumption of war. At the face value, the elections seem to be a far away option. However, politics is not just about things spoken or perceived at face value but is a complicated process that gives out strange and incomprehensible results. The political process is determined not by the actions seen in surface but is often dictated by unseen undercurrents.

PM Thapa : Anything under his sleeve?

Whatever the public statements indicate, the political undercurrents seem to be heading towards a direction, which is beyond the imagination of general public. As Maoists, who suddenly have gone underground and are now placing new demands, no one can rule out the possibility of new kinds of understanding among major political parties for certain political gains.

Prime minister Thapa has rejected any possibility for the announcement of elections but his actions indicate otherwise. In an informal meeting of Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) leaders at prime minister's residence last week, he demanded the restructuring of party's powerful parliamentary committee. Attended by all senior RPP leaders, the meeting also discussed the need to restructure other party organizations including the disciplinary committee.

The party's parliamentary committee has a decisive role in choosing party's candidates for the general and other elections. Even before inviting his party leaders to prime minister's residence, the government had directed the elections commission to stand by to hold the elections in short notice.

Moreover former prime minister and Nepali Congress (Democratic) leader Sher Bahadur Deuba has been challenging the five political parties to either face elections or support his reinstatement.

Though Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, two major agitating parties, are still sticking to their demands to form all party government and reinstatement of the parliament, they, too, seem to be in no mood to oppose the elections.

Some RPP leaders have outright dismissed any possibility of elections without bringing the Maoists to mainstream. "As long as Maoists hold the guns, the elections cannot take place," said Arjun Narsingh K.C, spokesman of Nepali Congress. "At a time when elections cannot be held, the revival of the House of Representatives is the only way out of the present political stalemate."

With the peace talks deadlocked, the mainstream political parties including the government are throwing different kinds of opinions. One common agenda among them is the necessity of elected representatives.

As the Maoists have already issued five days ultimatum to the government pressing to fulfill their demands, the breakdown of talks seem inevitable. But what will happen to the ceasefire is the big question given the unfavorable internal and external situation against violent and terrorist methods.

"If peace talks break down, mainstream political forces will have no other option than to reconstitute the House of Representatives either through elections or revival of the dissolved House of Representatives," said an analyst.

Known as a shrewd politician, prime minister Thapa's activities in the last two months have indicated that he would take some unexpected decisions to forge a new political alliance among the major parties.

Thapa's close political advisors, however, reject the possibility to hold the elections or the revival of the house at this juncture. "As long as the Maoists hold the gun, it is impossible to conduct elections. The revival of the House of Representatives is also unrealistic proposition at this juncture," said a senior RPP leader close to prime minister Thapa.

In another development, even as the new political situation is emerging, a sudden announcement has come from the Royal Palace citing the recommendation of royal physicians that King Gyanendra and Queen Komal requires a through medical check up in good hospital. It is yet to be announced when and where the royal couple will go for their health check-up, but it is certain to affect process of political settlement.

Will the new political development be less violent or will the country have to pass through more violence? It is not clear. As famous political thinker Nicolo Machiavelli says: Men will not look at things as they really are, but as they wish them to be - and are ruined.