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spotlogo2.jpg (6318 bytes) VOL. 22, NO. 31, FEB 14 - FEB 20 2003.

COVER STORY


AGRICULTURE POLICIES
Unstable And Uncertain

Over the last 50 years, the agriculture sector has seen various waves of creation and destruction of institutions. Ignoring their contributions in the past and utility for the future, policy makers have broken up many institutions that were in their prime. By dismantling public-sector companies, research farms, demonstration gardens and scaling back departments and programs set up after substantial investments, policy makers also exposed their own flawed perception of development. In this unstable and uncertain policy environment, agriculture has shown slow but steady growth

By KESHAB POUDEL 

-Set up as a think tank to support farm development activities in 1978, the Agriculture Project Services Center (APROCS) was liquidated in 1998, for having become non-functional and non-productive.

Vegetable trade : Cash crops
Vegetable trade : Cash crops

-Built under assistance from the former USSR to supply modern tools and equipment to Nepalese farmers, the Agriculture Tools Factory was privatized and then liquidated. The factory abruptly stopped production at a time when some of its tools and equipment were gaining popularity. Until the 1990s, there were more than 15 public-sector enterprises and companies involved in agriculture development. Most of them have been dismantled or liquidated.

-The Small Farmers Development Program (SFDP), which was considered a model project for agriculture development until a few years ago, is nowhere in the picture today. The Agriculture Development Bank, which promoted the SFDP, too, is in crisis.

-The Department of Agriculture Marketing and Management was reduced to a divisional unit as the Department of Horticulture under the ministry. This is but one of countless cases of institutional demolition.

According to the Auditor General's Annual Report 2001, there are still a number of committees and corporations involved in agriculture development. The Agriculture Lime Industry, Agriculture Input Corporation, Dairy Development Corporation, Nepal Tea Development Corporation and Cotton Development Committee continue working in their designated areas. The Kalimati Fruit and Vegetable Wholesale Market Development Committee, Agriculture Information Section, Chandra Dangi Seed and Dairy Development Committee and Livestock Development Farm Pokhara, too, underpin a sector that remains the economic backbone of the country. The National Tea and Coffee Development Board, National Dairy Development Board, National Cooperative Board and Nepal Agriculture Research Council exist to provide institutional impetus to Nepalese agriculture.

Eggs : Promoting poultry
Eggs : Promoting poultry

Under the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, there are another dozen institutions like Department of Agriculture, Department of Livestock, Horticulture Division, Fishery Division, Agriculture Research and Publicity Division, the Horticulture Garden Development Program, Upper Sagarmatha Agriculture Development Project, Nepal Irrigation Sector Project, Crop Protection Projects, Crop Diversification Project, Market Development Program, and Silk Farming Development Program. Among the many other programs and projects are 14 horticulture gardens, Seed and Crop Promotion and Storage Project, Department of Cooperatives and Central Food Research Laboratory. According to the Auditor General's report, more than 100 institutions have been created to monitor or to work on farming activities from the village to the central level.

Behind this impressive listing lies a grim fact. The Department of Agriculture is the only institution that has continued function for 50 years. Other departments, research centers, public enterprises, projects and programs have come and gone. Many projects were deserted soon after the donors shifted their targets.

Established under the grant assistance of friendly countries, some research and observation farms have now turned into playgrounds, while important horticulture farms currently house hospitals. This frivolous transformation can be explained by another somber reality: agricultural institutions have been set up and dismantled in Nepal at personal whims. The government has never bothered to justify why they were created or why they had to be dismantled.

Herds of sheep : Livestock production still unsatisfactory
Herds of sheep : Livestock production still unsatisfactory

Many of these institutions played an important role in modernizing Nepalese agriculture. APROCS, which was dissolved for having become a liability, produced many highly qualified researchers and experts. Many such highly qualified professionals are working for international organizations. As the country stresses the need to boost agriculture, it suffers from a shortage of qualified manpower and strong institutions.

The dissolution of the Agricultural Tools Factory was another disaster for a country in constant need of small modernized tools and equipment. Along with these two major institutions, mango, licchi and other demonstration gardens, high-breed cattle farms and demonstrations centers were liquidated. Some fisheries and hatcheries were closed down and dozens of support centers in rural areas were destroyed during the seven-year Maoist insurgency.

The remaining institutions, too, are in crisis. Nepal Agriculture Research Center (NARC), for instance, to frail to take care of itself. Turned into an autonomous institution to carry out efficient and effective research in 1990, NARC is passing through a difficult phase.

Massive recruitment of administrative staff and political intervention in the day-to-day administration have turned NARC into another white elephant. The center has seen more than eight executive directors in the last 12 years.

Truck loads of food grain : Path to self sufficiency
Truck loads of food grain : Path to self sufficiency

From supplying petrol to the minister's personal assistant to appointing temporary non-technical staff it hardly needs, NARC has been passing through a common disease afflicting Nepalese institutions. According to accepted practice, there should be three general employees for every expert hired. At NARC, there are six for every scientist. More money is spent on salaries and benefits than on research. If the points raised by the Auditor General's annual reports are not addressed, it will not be long before NARC, too, recedes into history.

Since the establishment of the Department of Agriculture with a demonstration farm at Singha Durbar in Kathmandu and a fruit nursery at Godavari in 1924, successive governments have created and dismantled countless institutions.

While other South Asian countries were leading a Green Revolution with high yielding varieties of wheat and rice, expansion of irrigation, diversification of agriculture from cereals to cash crops like cotton and oilseeds, horticulture and livestock, Nepalese planners were struggling to decide what kind of institutions they wanted.

Several efforts have been made to modernize agriculture in the last five decade. But, as in other sectors, they have been too fast and too complex. Productivity has increased, but not enough to keep pace with Nepal's growing population. In the early 1950s, USOM teams had difficulty finding adequate manpower and institutions in the agriculture sector.

"Early USOM workers found a critical shortage of trained personnel in agriculture, with only three or four India-trained agriculturists available to work in agricultural development when Paul Rose and his team arrived in 1951. There was no information on population, settlement patterns, or farmer production systems, and no government planning unit interested in such data. Similarly, there was no research system to bring in adapt new agriculture technologies; no extension system to transfer them to farmers; and no input supply systems for irrigation, fertilizer, agrochemicals, seeds, or agricultural credit," reveals "Half-a-Century of Development, the History of U.S. Assistance to Nepal 1951-2001," published by USAID.

The United States, Japan, India, United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea, Switzerland, Denmark, the Netherlands and donor agencies like the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization have played an important role to modernize agriculture sectors. However, abrupt shifts in policies and programs have stood in the way.

The Japanese government has provided important financial support for horticulture development in the mid-hills. India has built many demonstration and research centers in the mid-hills and terai. Switzerland and Denmark supported the commercialization of dairy products. United Kingdom has built two important agriculture research centers in Pakhribas and Lumle.

Unchanged Pattern

Nepal has witnessed tremendous changes in terms of manpower and research, production increases and use of technologies. Despite bleak performance in the production and diversification of crops, there are some positive sides. If the situation today is compared with what the USOM encountered in 1950, considerable infrastructure has been created along with institutions. There are several departments, research institutes, stations, farms, cooperatives, credit banks, private companies to distribute fertilizers, NGOs and local level markets. Similarly, the pool of trained manpower has increased substantially.

A farmet : Ploughing a lonely furrow
A farmet : Ploughing a lonely furrow

"The economic pattern of Nepal is unique in so far as the 8.4 million people of the country live in the same way as they did several years ago," said Tony Hagen, in his report titled "Observations on Certain Aspects of Economic and Social Development Problems in Nepal" in 1959. "Everything they need for living is produced more or less by them. As noted earlier, Nepal is agriculturally a rich country and starvation is unknown. Some minor seasonal shortages of food are caused only by the total lack of marketing and storage facilities, but by crop shortages."

The country's population has now reached 23.3 million, with a growth rate of 2.27 percent per annum over the period 1991-2001. Although the literacy rate has gone up and roads connect hitherto remote parts of the country, the mode of agriculture more or less resembles what Hagen had observed.

"An average of 20-25 percent of the population makes one 15-day trip to the Terai every year. Alternatively, 10-12 percent of the population spends a total of 30 days traveling every season. The profit from selling the products on the market averages 25 Indian rupees per load of 35-40 kg. It can be concluded that 10-12 percent of the population has a yearly income of 50 Indian rupees per year ($US4). A family may thus have a net cash income of about 40 Indian rupees per year from the sale of agriculture products only. The agricultural products which are brought from the midlands on human backs down to the bazaars of the terrain vary of course according to the places of origin and seasons of the year. Fruit is generally unknown in the rural areas. However, a few limited areas are famous for oranges," Hagen said.

Before writing those sentences, he observed the livelihood of Nepalese after travelling through different parts of the country for more than eight years. Five decades later, the livelihood of large numbers of farmers has been drastically transformed. Despite diversification and construction of roads, agriculture is still largely subsistence based and transportation remains a major problem.

The Agriculture Sector Performance Review conducted under the support of the Asian Development Bank has noted many improvements. The survey results confirm the impression that agriculture in Nepal is still largely subsistence or semi-commercial. For some of the main crops (paddy, potato, lentil and cauliflower), it was possible to compute the marketed surplus, that is average sales as percentage of average production of household. Only 40 percent of the farmers producing paddy actually sell paddy. Farmers have shown interest and investment in the agriculture sectors increased by many folds. In 1997/98, average investment was about Rs.1, 305 per household. That figure reached Rs.4,266 in 2001/2002. The stagnation in agriculture production is caused by inadequate irrigation.

Private sector consists of small farmers, medium- and larger-scale farmers, and agro-enterprises engaged in provision of inputs and marketing of outputs. International multilateral and bilateral organizations play an important role in the agriculture sector, providing much-needed development financing and making major contribution to agricultural policy debate, public sector reform and the design and development projects and programs. Of the Rs.10,235 million ($136.5 million) budgeted for the agriculture sector in fiscal year 2001/02.

Farmers' Initiatives

Amid unstable and unpredictable policies, Nepalese farmers had to choose their own path to boost production. Whether in fisheries, horticulture or vegetable production, farmers have developed their own marketing and production systems. Laid off from companies, many experts and scientists are offering various kinds of technical as well as other support in transforming agriculture.

Although the Agriculture Development Bank provided the know-how for the Small Farmers Development Program, the model is working in different forms through the involvement of non-governmental organizations or the participation of the community. Shree Krishna Upadhyaya,  a former member of the National Planning Commission and the executor of successful SFDP, and his team are now running the program through SAPROS.

In fisheries, expert Krishna Gopal Rajbanshi, a former government official, has been visiting the countryside and encouraging farmers. Gopal Rajbhandari, a former agriculture secretary, is running one of the successful private dairies and popularizing milk products.

Many farmers have been taking the initiative on their own. If the government could create the proper atmosphere and offer basic support, farmers would do the rest to boost production.

Experience has shown that if water, high-yield seeds and transportation are made available, the farmers can take care of the markets and technology. "The government has little to take credit for the present development. It is the initiative of the farmers that has brought such a drastic change in agriculture," says Rajbanshi.

The departments, projects and demonstration and research farms under the Agriculture Ministry have their own problems. At the ministry, secretaries have been removed and transferred so frequently at the whim of politicians that there are always delays in decisions on policy implementation.

"Notwithstanding the importance of agriculture to the people and the economy of Nepal, the performance of this sector has been disappointingly weak. During the past three decades, while many countries of Asia, including South Asia, were experiencing rapid gains in agricultural productivity and food production, Nepal was struggling to maintain its previous productivity levels. Consequently, Nepal's crop yield levels, which were the highest in South Asia during the early 60s, are now among the lowest in the region," said Dr. Hari Krishna Upadhyaya executive chairman of CEAPRED.

Contribution of Agriculture

The World Bank's Economic Update 2002 shows that agriculture in Nepal has long been lagging. It has shown some signs of dynamism in the last few years. Agriculture's share in GDP is more than 35 percent, but its contribution to growth has been below potential and has accounted for less than one-fourth of growth during the 1990s. Although in the first half of the 1990s per capita agricultural value added actually fell, this trend was reversed in the second half of the decade. Despite the drought of 1999, per capita agriculture growth increased to nearly 1 percent during this period.

Despite policy shifts, instability and uncertainty over the last five decades, the agriculture sector has made some important progress. In the 1990s, there was substantial progress despite some unwise decisions. There was a 23-percent increase in the use of fertilizers in fiscal year 2000 and higher food prices in 1999, better educated farmers, diversification of crop production as cash crops and exports grew rapidly growth of agricultural credit and some improvements in rural roads and irrigation and good rainfall.

Despite this progress, agricultural and rural economic growth remains constrained by inadequate infrastructure, weak irrigation and other complementary inputs.

With uninterrupted foreign assistance, large technical manpower, institutional set-up, and technical know-how, Nepal's agriculture sector has been transformed from a primitive to a modern system. Unstable and uncertain policies remain the major hurdles to fully modernize the system and to increase production.

With a share of 40 percent of GDP and 80 percent of the labor force, agriculture plays a key role in the overall economy and society of Nepal. The importance of the sector is borne out by the fact that  almost 90 percent of the population lives in rural areas and depends on agriculture for its livelihood. The World Bank's Nepal Public Expenditure Review reveals that agriculture is the main source of employment for 83 of the labor force; 86 percent of households cultivate some land; 80 percent have some livestock; and two thirds of incomes of all households are derived from self-employment in agriculture or agriculture related wages.

In terms of income differentials among the various sectors of the economy, according to the Labor Survey of fiscal year 1999, value added workers in agriculture was only $265 per annum, i.e. the equivalent of 53 percent of the national average, and only 25 percent and 19 percent of average value added by those working in industry and services sectors respectively.

The report also shows that the rate of growth in agriculture in real terms was only 2.6 percent per annum over the past two decade. The production of food crops declined between fiscal years 1991 and 1995 and of forestry products stagnated between fiscal years 1994 and 1997.

The problems are not lack of donor assistance - over US$500 million has been committed for agricultural development since 1990. According to Nepal Agriculture Sector Performance Review, agriculture is the main source of income in rural areas, the link between poverty and low productivity of agriculture is very close. Coupled with a low-input agriculture and the low adoption of modern technology, agriculture in Nepal is one of the poorest in the world, with a value added per agricultural worker in 2001 estimated at US$137.

Since the share of high-value crops in total cultivated area is still small, the desired process of agricultural diversification is hardly noticeable at the aggregate level. Among the positive signs are the increased yield performance of major cereals during the second half of the 1990s. "The performance of the livestock sub-sector has been strong over the past decade with total meat, milk and egg production growing more rapidly than population. The strong growth has been the result of increasing demand and also increasing investment by farmers. Fishery, in spite of still contributing a small share of total agriculture GDP, is a sector growing rapidly.

In terms of the technologies, process, research and extension works, Nepal has implemented a lot in the area of agriculture. There are many more options in front of farmers. The country has a record of making and breaking the institutions for research, extensions and marketing.

The challenges are immense and clearly visible. "Nepal has seen little of the Green Revolution. Most landholdings are small and fragmented, fertilizer use is low, agricultural road networks are inadequate and, in spite of extensive river systems, irrigation does not reach most of the arable land," said Dr. Henning Karcher, UNDP Resident Representative in a statement delivered at the launch of the South Asia Human Development Report.

Implementation of the APP

Nepal announced a 20-year Agriculture Perspective Plan in 1996, recognizing it as the main guideline for implementation of policies in the sector. But the government is yet to implement it as its objective. The goal of turning a largely subsistence-based agriculture system into modern one is admirable. Considering that the country has seen sudden shifts in policies, nobody knows whether the APP will last the 13 years it still has to go.


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