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spotlogo2.jpg (6318 bytes) VOL. 22, NO. 33, FEB 28 - MAR 06 2003.

POLITICS


Uncertain Course

Despite their repeated pleas for unity, the country's major political forces seems to be heading toward greater confrontation

By KESHAB POUDEL

Koirala (left) and Nepal : Divided they stand

Politics, as a general rule, is an unpredictable game. But Nepalese politics has become too unpredictable for the country's and people's good. The major political forces are tirelessly calling for reconciliation, but there are few signs of their willingness to bury their differences.

The game political leaders are playing would only increase their differences and plunge the country into greater uncertainty.

As long as the country's major political forces remain divided, instability will continue to rule the country. The course followed by the country's major forces is only creating space for those who want to destabilize the political process.

King Gyanendra has been reiterating his commitment to multiparty democracy and constitutional monarchy, but the actions of the government do not match his pledges. Mainstream political leaders, too, are speaking in favor of constitutional monarchy and multiparty democracy, but their actions are encouraging greater rifts with the palace.
"Our party, in principle, believes in constitutional monarchy and multiparty democracy. We will oppose any move of the king to become active," said former prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala. "There needs to be certain unity among constitutional forces to tackle the unconstitutional force."

In his formal speeches, the Congress leader has adopted a reconciliatory tone. But his actions and reaction run counter to that spirit. "We will launch a nation-wide peaceful demonstration to restore the multiparty democracy," he warned.

The other five parties represented in the last parliament, the CPN-UML, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Nepali Congress (Democratic), Nepal Workers and Peasants Party and National People's Forum, are also urging reconciliation. But everyone has their own terms.

"I don't understand why the country's major political forces are not coming together, since the prerequisite for their survival is unity," said Professor Dhruba Kumar. "The King and the major political parties must come together to deal with the Maoists."

Amid the differences among the major political forces, the Maoists are searching for a place for a safe landing. Although the government and the Maoists have agreed on a cease-fire and all political parties have backed it, confusion and contradictions abound.

The Maoist leadership, which has already made it clear that they do not want to create any situation hostile to the peace talks, seems to be unable to control their cadres. The student union of the Maoists, which suspended its indefinite strike a few weeks ago, has threatened another lock-out from March 9. Other cadres continue terrorizing the common people in the districts.

It seems the cease-fire has become part of the problem of national politics, rather than a permanent solution. "The present trends show that Nepal will see a more chaotic and confusing situation with an unstable government," said a political analyst. "I don't think there is a possibility of unification among the country's major political forces soon."

With the country's major political parties yet to end their hostility and Maoists cadres yet to obey the central leadership's orders, the country's political prospects are likely to worsen, averting the possibility of early elections to the House of Representatives and local bodies.

"For any kind of lasting peace, an elected government with a mandate to fulfill the demands proposed by the Maoists is required," said advocate Radhe Shyam Adhikary. "It is even in the interest of the Maoists to demand fresh elections."

Despite assurances from the government and political parties that a new parliament would help extricate the country from crisis, there are few signs of elections being held soon. It seems no leader wants to contest the elections until there is a possibility of his becoming prime minister.

The road to a full and functional democracy seems to be long and arduous. Along the way, the people may have to brace for a number of governments making and breaking promises, sending the country on a more chaotic course.


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