Opinion (Spotlight Weekly)

India's River-linking Project & Nepal

By AB Thapa

It has been very recently reported in Indian news media that the Government of India has proposed to launch a grandiose project to link all the major rivers flowing in their territory. For those people closely watching the development of water resources in India such plan is nothing new. This idea was first put forward by Dr. K.L. Rao in 1972 then the Minister for Irrigation and Power in the Government of India. He had proposed to link the Ganga and the Cauvery rivers. After that in 1977 came the Dastur proposal to build a garland of canals linking the major rivers. Both these projects were not accorded great importance. Even the works to carry out the feasibility studies of such link canals have so far been going on at an extremely slow pace. However, now the Government of India appears to be decided to launch this highly ambitious project with renewed vigor and determination. It seems the President of India A.P.J. Kalam revived this idea in his Independence Day address to the nation last year. It is about time now that in the light of India's recent policy to link rivers in their territory we also make afresh assessment of our water resources. Information provided in the Indian news media clearly suggests that the Government of India is now engaged in developing a policy to obtain the consent of Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh through a revenue sharing agreements. Needless to say that the most important would be the role of Nepal for this type of linkage project to succeed. For this type of water diversion the Mahakali, Karnali. West Seti. Gandak and the Kosi would be of great interest to India. It would not be misplaced to glance the WECS bulletins dated May, 1995 ( Volume 6, Number 1 & 2) and dated September, 1997 ( Volume 8, Number 3) carrying the articles entitled ìWest Seti benefits could turn into a desert mirage for Nepalî and ìKarnali downstream benefitsî respectively. It will help to understand the extremely valuable role played by the World Bank in the past in properly evaluating the true economic potential of our large multipurpose water resources projects and it also helps to reveal how some of our decision makers might be playing into the hands of those determined to make fortune by ruining the true economic potential of our water resources.

Past Role of the World Bank

Attention of the World community had been drawn to the Karnali river from the early 1960s for the generation of hydroelectricity. At the beginning the UNDP was involved and later on in 1980s the World Bank provided assistance for further study. To the great surprise of many of us the study carried out under the guidance of the World Bank has helped to establish that the net irrigation benefits accruable from this giant multipurpose project are quite comparable to power benefits. Under certain condition the Karnali irrigation benefit to India could be even two times greater than the total power benefit. However, the lands to come under irrigation are almost entirely in Indian territory. Canal networks to convey water for irrigation have already been built in India. Once the Karnali storage dam project comes under operation a vast area in Indian territory would automatically be brought under year round irrigation. Additional investment would not be needed for the development of irrigation in India. There was almost a similar case in the development of Columbia river that flows from Canada to the United States. Canada virtually sold to the United States the water of the Columbia river regulated by the storage dams built in Canada for the generation of electricity in the existing hydropower stations of the USA. For such water supply Canada is now getting 50% of the additional electricity produced by all the hydropower stations in the United States that use the regulated flow of the Columbia river. Nepal could also hold talk to persuade India to buy regulated water from the Karnali storage reservoir that would be automatically irrigating lands in the Indian territory. If Nepal also succeeded in getting 50% of the net irrigation benefit accruable to India, the benefit to Nepal from irrigation could be more than sufficient to bear the entire cost of the scaled down Karnali Project with a capacity of about 3,000 MW.

India's New Policy to Buy Water

In the past India had been showing a great deal of reluctance to buy water stored in the reservoirs to be built in Nepal for irrigation in their territory. . However, India had been saying all along that they could agree to pay Nepal indirectly perhaps by financing some components of the project. Both the countries even until now have not done enough homework to resolve this problem. If the recent reporting of the Indian news media on India's river-linking project is correct, now India appears to be agreeing to buy water delivered from other countries for distribution across India. This is a significant shift in India's policy that would certainly help to bridge the wide gap that exists in the perception of Nepal and India on the development of very large storage projects in general and the Karnali High Dam Project in particular.

Thus now the Indian views explained in the recently published edition of the journal INDIA TODAY can be observed to be significantly close to the views expressed in the above mentioned WECS bulletin on the Karnali downstream benefits. Both these views are presented hereinafter:

WECS VIEW - The population of India is rapidly increasing and is likely to cross the one billion mark very soon. So the demand for food grains is also steadily increasing. For increasing the agricultural production the potential for area expansion is very limited. One of the India's latest plan documents clearly indicates that such output increases have to come from the expansion of irrigation accompanied by improved farming practices. It implies that Nepal has a very strong bargaining position to get a good price for regulated water from Nepal to be supplied to India for irrigation. So we should not sacrifice the benefit for the sake of a quick deal.

INDIAN CONCERN ( India Today) - With the country's population estimated to touch 1,650 million by 2050 India would need to double its food production to 450 million tons even as the demand for water rises from 634 bcm to 1,447 bcm.

Concern about Water Rights

It is quite heartening to know that a local NGO had recently organized a meeting to discuss on India's river-linkage project. The prior right issues raised in that meeting by Dr. D. Basnet and Mr. S.B. Pun are very important. There is a need to encourage Nepal's academic institutions to pursue this study more vigorously. Needless to say that at present Nepal's water sector is at a complete disarray. An article was published in the SPOTLIGHT on 12 July 2002 explaining that the Kosi is on the verge of shifting to the east far away from its present course and the peoples of Nepal and India are heading for a natural disaster of an unprecedented scale. Unfortunately there has not been the slightest response from any of the local NGOs including those that claim themselves to be fully knowledgeable about the water resources problems of our country even after being informed that the life and property of millions are at great risk. Needless to say that the recently published India's river-linking project could also pose a great threat to the water rights of our country if we failed to take seriously the water resources problems confronting our country. Unfortunately there are several other threats to our water resources. Such threats are mostly of our own making. Surprisingly none of the NGOs or other institutions are yet seen to be concerned. It is hoped that in future the local NGOs associated with our water resources issues will come forward in helping to find out correct solutions to those problems that have been hurting our country the most.

Karnali Downstream Benefits

Few years ago our government was almost going to award the Karnali High Dam Project to the American multinational company ENRON completely ignoring the downstream benefits. Except for very few none of the NGOs or other institutions seemed to be concerned. Fortunately the Karnali project could be saved at that time. The downstream benefits would be completely lost if prior arrangements are not made to recover them. The treaty to recover downstream benefits should be finalized ahead of the decision to implement the Karnali Project. This task normally takes a long time even if both the parties ( Nepalese and Indian governments) are genuinely eager to make a mutually beneficial deal. We can draw a lesson from the past experience of the United States and Canada.

The discussions on the Columbia River Projects between the USA and Canada started since 1944. All the projects included in the Treaty provided a total storage volume, which, however, was only half of the Karnali storage volume. Direct negotiations began between Canada and the USA on sharing of the downstream benefits from the project accruing to the United States after the completion of the study. The USA even agreed to provide advance money to build the Columbia river projects in lieu of the Canadian entitlement of the downstream benefits covering a period of 30 years. The Columbia Treaty was initialed at the White House in January 1961. Even though the US Congress quickly ratified it during the following summer, Canada, the upstream country, was not satisfied. The Treaty effectively remained in limbo until April of 1963. In May 1963 Canadian Prime Minister Pearson met with President Kennedy at Hyannis Port and presented his plan for the Columbia River that met Canada's concerns. This resulted in a Protocol to the Treaty. Finally on September 16, 1964 President Lyndon Johnson and the Prime Minister Lester Pearson met to ratify the Treaty and the Protocol to the satisfaction of Canada. It would be a serious mistake if we were hoping to recover easily the vast Karnali or West-Seti downstream benefits without very hard and time-consuming efforts at the highest government level. Needless to say that the negotiation on water resources use between the two countries is always an arduous task We should carry out a great deal of homework prior to sitting down to start the negotiation. It would be foolish on our part to expect a fair deal for our country if we are intending to send a person from a foreign private company to do the job to be performed by the Prime Minister or the President himself even in the countries like the United States or Canada.

In Conclusion

Mr. Paul D. Terrell Jr. of Bechtel Company of the USA who worked as the Chief Advisor Consultant of the Karnali High Dam Project has given very sincere suggestions to all of us that deserves to be always remembered. It was in reference to the Karnali High Dam Project but it can be equally applied to all other large storage dam projects proposed to be built in Nepal in future. He has said that the present institutions should beware of giving away Nepali children's rightful inheritance. The expression used by Mr. Terrell carrying a great deal of emotion is a strong warning. It is indeed addressed to those in the government institutions and also to various NGOs and other organizations. It conveys one very important message not to jeopardize the interest of the people and the country for the personal benefit.