National 5 (Spotlight Weekly)

Peace At Peril?

With the closure of CPN-Maoist liaison office and their adamant posture on resuming the third round of peace talks, prime minister Surya Bahadur Thapa's two-month-old government has landed in a new political quagmire. However, the government-Maoist deadlock, knowingly or unknowingly, opens possibilities to bring derailed constitutional process to the right track. The new political situation gives Thapa two political options: negotiate with Congress president Girija Prasad Koirala and other four agitating parties on their demand to revive the dissolved House of Representatives or go for fresh elections. The sudden, but not entirely unexpected political development seems to have engendered an unanticipated situation

By KESHAB POUDEL

Prime minister Surya Bahadur Thapa's recent indication to call fresh elections was widely criticized by the Maoists and the country's five major agitating political parties. With the announcement of the CPN-Maoists to go underground and close down its liaison office in the capital indefinitely, the major political parties represented in the parliament may now have to negotiate an unwanted solution with the government. Likewise, this indicates the further prolonging of political instability in the country.

By sounding out strong responses against any announcement of elections, CPN-Maoist leader Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal has already declared that fixing of election date will be tantamount to declaring a war. Along with the Maoist leader Badal, CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal has also termed possibilities of elections at this juncture as a bogus and time-buying claim. He instead urged for the restoration of dissolved House of Representatives.

Badal and Nepal share their opinion on holding the elections. The only difference is that Badal does not want to see the revival of the House either. On the other hand, PM Thapa is yet to show his cards. He has sounded ambiguous by showing that he is supportive to holding election as well as recommending for the revival of the House.

Maoist leaders with businessmen : Hugging the limelight

Amid differences over holding elections and revival of dissolved House of Representatives, prime minister Thapa who seems to be in trouble, is in fact in a politically strong bargaining position. After the deliberate leakage of government's instructions to the Elections Commission asking it to spell out the possibility to hold the polls, Maoist leaders have reacted harshly. "If the government will announce the elections without settling our problems, we will treat it as a sign of breaking of cease-fire," said Badal, a powerful Maoist leader to the newspapers.

Strangely, other moderate CPN-UML leaders, too, are toeing the Badal line. "The reason that prevented the elections in the past still exists. The government is buying more time by talking about possibility of holding elections," declared Nepal at a press conference. "I don't think it is possible to hold the elections without bringing the Maoists in the mainstream."

The politics is a game that turns impossible events into possible ones and it will always move to a new and hitherto unknown direction to break the political deadlock. From the patch-up of differences in the CPN-UML and call by Congress president Girija Prasad Koirala asking his archrivals including former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba to return to the party fold, the frantic developments in the recent days must have certain political message.

The maverick politician and prime minister Thapa's indication may not be as bogus as CPN-UML general secretary Nepal said. Known as a master manipulator, Thapa and Koirala are the only two politicians who can gauge which way the political equation will unfold in future.

Whether in reviving the dissolved House of Representatives or calling fresh elections, major parties need a strong unity among and within themselves. "This is a grand rehearsal that the major political parties are currently engaged in," said a political analyst.† "The desperation of some Rastriya Prajatantra Party leaders to join the government is also a part of the drama."

Possibility of Resumption of Hostility With the announcement of the closure of Maoist liaison office, there is a wide spread suspicion among the common people regarding the possibility of resumption of hostility between the government and Maoist forces triggering bloodshed and destruction.

The surprising and sudden announcement of the CPN-Maoist to close its liaison office has sent a shock wave in the country, where more than 7,000 Nepalese have lost their lives and valuable infrastructures worth more than US$ 300 million have been destroyed. It also showed that the peace process is difficult and complicated one. Since the Maoists have large number of armed cadres, they, too, need a package to reach success in the peace process.

Since the Maoists leaders themselves have made it clear that they will try to stick on ceasefire till the last minute, there is a very thin possibility of full-scale war like a year ago. As the United States, India and Western countries are maintaining a close watch on the latest development, the Maoists will have to bear maximum physical as well as material damage. Once the war resumes, the government will again tag them terrorist. "Maoists will remain underground engaging in scattered cases of killings, extortion and looting but the prevailing international and regional situation do not permit them to go beyond this limitation," said a political analyst. "Since the USA, India and other western countries firmly supported Nepal to quell insurgency, I don't see any possibility of full-scale war."

"We are very much concerned about the present situation and hope the peace process will resume again," said David Wood, head of DFID. Though Nepal's northern neighbor remains far away from political happenings, it, too, is closely watching the latest development.

"We are committed to the stability and prosperity of Nepal. We hope Nepal will achieve a long lasting peace without any foreign interventions," said senior Chinese diplomat in an informal meeting.

Whether an external or internal power, all have their limitations. Maoists will use this opportunity to bargain for more concessions from the government but their statements have shown that they will not break the ceasefire. "At a time when strong insurgent group like Liberation Tigers of Tamil Ealam (LTTE) have abandoned full-scale war with the Sri Lankan government, it is difficult for the small insurgent group like the Maoists in South Asia to counter the western vigilance."

Closure of the liaison office of the Maoists and its leaders going underground again will become a political threat to the CPN-UML. In any circumstances, the Maoists will not tolerate emergence of†the CPN-UML as a strong force. Although CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal still claims that he is a consensus candidate for prime minister, his nomination will tilt the balance in internal political spectrum.

Communist powers like CPN-UML is alright as long as they support the movement in prolonging political instability but there is hardly any possibility of accepting them as strong presence. The CPN-UML has secured its present political position during a cold war power alliance. But in the changing context of regional level cold war, the rise of the CPN-UML is always threat to certain power.

Maoists' Gain

After the announcement of the cease-fire between the government and Maoists on January 30, the Maoist leaders Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal, Krishna Bahadur Mahara and other top leaders virtually received wide attention of national and international media. From releasing the book to many other activities, the Maoists tried to win the heart of the people and their influence also grew. Had the situation continued, Maoists would have been in a position to replace the CPN-UML.

Since the CPN-UML leader had also begun their political struggle following the Indian Naxalites, there is a possibility that the Maoists, too, could transform similarly.

Following the announcement of ceasefire, from local media to international media, Maoist leaders have received wide publicity in domestic as well as international level. The public commitments of the Maoist leadership for the successful peace talks also generated sympathy among the local populations.

As a political party based on underground activities, this lofty publicity, however, seems to have sent a wrong message among their cadres who are holding guns in the rural parts of the country. Growing media exposure also sent a wrong message to those who did not want to see them as a popular force like CPN-UML.

Government Vs Maoists

With the appointment of new government led by prime minister Thapa, the government Maoist negotiators have held six rounds of informal talks. During the four rounds of such talks, they did not even invite the facilitators.

The present deadlock, according to Maoist side, appears following the government's unwillingness to restrict the Royal Nepalese Army within five-kilometer radius. Since RNA has openly opposed restricting its activities within the said area, the government cannot do much.

Maoist leaders in their statement, among others, accused the government of sending many undercover agents to surveillance their activities. The government spokesman Kamal Thapa, however, flatly denied it assuring that they will guarantee the safety of Maoist leaders.

"The round-the-clock surveillance placed by the security forces has created an uncomfortable atmosphere for chief negotiators and others to remain in the public eye," said Bharat Dhungana, secretary of the Maoist contact office. "The conduct of the government has compelled us to suspect its motives."

Minister Kamal Thapa, however, promised that the government would give full guarantee of the security of the Maoists negotiating team and would give them safe passage in the event of peace talks breaking down. Maoists negotiating teams have gone underground and its contact office has been closed indefinitely but the Maoist side is yet to respond to the government's formal invitation.

Preparation for Elections

The government is making the preparation to hold the elections. Despite severe criticisms, the Elections Commission has already been directed to prepare for any eventuality and be ready to hold the elections in short notice.

"We have already told the government that the Elections Commission is ready to hold the polls. It is up to the government to decide whether they are prepared to hold it or not," said a senior official at the Elections Commission. "Since the job of the commission is to hold the elections, we don't have any hesitation to do it."

In the recent budget, the government also sanctioned Rs 1.7 billion for the election purposes. It has also pledged to give state funding to the political parties. "I don't think all these are just coincidences. With the appointment of Thapa as a prime minister, the various options have already been discussed," said the analyst.

Despite their continuous resentment over the move to hold the elections, one section of Nepali Congress leadership is said to have convinced former prime minister Koirala about the political benefits they will receive when RPP leader Thapa is at the helm of the country's administration. Interestingly, RPP leader Thapa may find it comfortable to work with the Congress than his rival Pashupati Sumsher Rana.

"If the election is held under the command of prime minister Thapa, whose cozy political relations with Congress leader Koirala is open, Congress will, undoubtedly, be the main beneficiary, As Koirala is already in his eighties and is eyeing his daughter Sujata Koirala as his possible successor in the party, reconstitution of the parliament through the election is in his interest," said the analyst.

Prime minister and RPP leader Thapa, too, has his own interest to establish his party as the main opposition and he needs to push the CPN-UML into the third position.

CPN-UML leaders are well aware about possibility of future political course and so they are making every effort to avert the elections. By patching up the differences in the party, the CPN-UML also indicated that it is ready to contest the elections. After the patch-up last week, the UML dissident leader K.P. Sharma Oli left for two weeks long visit to China, North Korea and Japan.

Setback to Agitation

There will be more resentment among the public against the main political parties. If the talks are further delayed and mainstream parties continue their agitation, it will erode their credibility among common population.

Most of the common people held the view that ceasefire between the government and Maoist would solve all political problems and bring back normalcy in the country. But the agitation of five political parties has shattered their hope. With the cease-fire between the government and Maoists, the mainstream political parties openly did what the Maoist had not done in the last seven years.

Five political parties have proved that they, too, can become more radical than the Maoists. From closing down the schools to destroying the public properties, the political agitation launched under the democratic leaders like Koirala justified every means. Tired of facing political violence, common people are losing faith on the leadership.

Although the recent developments leading to greater anxiety regarding the outcome of peace talks has already sent a shockwave to the agitations by the five political parties who are in the process of winning more popularity, the five parties will have difficult time now to decide the future course.

Since the country's major political forces have shown every action is justifiable in politics, the have made themselves as readymade weapons to be used against each other. Previously, major political parties including CPN-UML, three leftist parties and RPP had blocked the House of Representatives to oust Koirala. And now Koirala is sharing the same podium with those very communist parties to oust RPP leader Thapa. So what is common is the urge to trigger instability.

This is an indication how Nepal's future political course will follow. It will be no surprise if existing political parties who are summoning dissolved parliament at the streets may boycott the legitimate parliament in the future. Like in the past, they will justify any kinds of course to push the country into political instability.

Whatever the political scenario, the country's political instability will prolong for another few more years and there is no clear sign of political stability Nepal is going to have. The internal and external situation continues to be there whatever the political scenario. The constitution of the House of Representatives will merely shift the power struggle from Royal Palace to Singhadurbar. n

THAPA SPEAKS

The spokesperson of the government and a member of its talks team, Minister for Information and Communication Kamal Thapa said that the government has done its homework and is prepared to discuss the political agenda. "They (Maoists) are asking for constituent assembly. We will neither fully surrender to their demands nor unreasonably stick to the status quo. We have made our plans and we will make it known to the Maoists in the third or fourth round of talks," he said.

Speaking at "Bahas" (Debate) program in Nepal Television on Saturday (July 19), Thapa said that he is confident the Maoist leaders will return to capital "within a few days" after meeting with their high command. "We will return in a few days with positive response to your letter � that is what Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal had told me just before he left the capital," said Thapa. Minister Thapa rejected charges that the government was provoking the rebels to go back to the jungle.

Referring to the brouhaha over the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) organizing medical trips to the Maoist hotbed, he said that it was the duty of the state to provide necessary medical and other welfare services. "If the situation was normal, we would not have deployed RNA to carry out these activities. But there have been cases where the rebels have abducted the VDC secretary, confiscated the funds targeted for the local people. So, that necessitated the use of army in these activities," he said.

Responding to the Maoist charge that the government has not conceded enough, Thapa replied, "It is utterly wrong to say that the state has not been flexible. We agreed to three main demands of the rebels even before they came for talks. We withdrew terrorist tag, red corner notice and head-prizes on their leaders. Continuously we have been releasing their leaders -- we will shortly release their three central leaders � and conceded to various demands they have been putting forth. We have not said anything even when their armed cadres are roaming freely. We have agreed, in the code of conduct, some points which were really objectionable. But we did not want to upset them. We know that they are engaged in extortions, abductions and arms build-up but we have not made it a big issue just to avoid upsetting the environment. Even about the controversial issue of confining the RNA within five kilometers, we have told them that we are ready to sort it out through talks. We have become maximum flexible. But then, we have an ominous precedent also. We cannot simply forget how the rebels walked out of talks and attacked army barracks during Deuba government. That is why we have to become vigilant. Besides, there are also other elements apart from Maoists that the state has to protect itself from and so we cannot just sit idle," Thapa said.

About the recent arrest and release of the secretary of the Maoist contact office, he said that the police had to interrogate him because he was named by the people who had been earlier arrested on charges of extortion. "But I will give the guarantee on behalf of the government that we will not arrest any members of the Maoist talks team. In fact, we will not arrest them even if the talks fail and they want to return to the jungle," he said, adding, "But we will not allow its other activists or cadres to engage in unlawful activities."