National 7 (Spotlight Weekly)

Security and Political Environment: A Nepalese Prospective - II

By Dr. Ram S. Mahat

Violence and Terror : The biggest source of insecurity to the Nepalese society at present remain terrorism and violence unleashed by the Maoists. In the name of "Peoples' War" they have used murder, kidnapping, extortion, intimidation and all such methods for the last 7 years. Ambush and mining, raid and commando attacks, various types of sabotage and selective annihilation are the acknowledged methods used by them. Army barracks, police posts, banks and governments offices have been targets of their attacks to acquire arms, ammunitions and money, inflict casualty and damage to security forces and demoralize them. Political activists and local leaders in rural areas are selectively targeted for physical liquidation, abduction, and physical cruelties and other punishments in the name of "Janakarbahi" (Peoples' Action). This has forced a large number of social workers, school teachers and other local leaders to leave the country side and migrate to secure urban centers, creating a serious problem of "internally displaced" people. Those who remain in the villages are forced to pay protection money. The leadership vacuum thus created in the rural community particularly in the hilly areas is filled up by the armed gangs of Maoist workers. Under threat and pressed for extortion money, many private schools in rural areas have closed down. In the wake of Maoist killings of large number of policemen, most rural police posts have now been withdrawn and confined to district headquarters. Banks and other offices have similarly been closed. Innocent civilians and children are used as human shields during the combat operation. Official figures released by the Royal Nepal Army on the cumulative combat casualties as of 20 December 2002 include a total of 7730 deaths of which 951 were civilian police, 102 were armed police 238 soldiers. The rest were Maoists, suspected Maoists or civilians. These figures do not include the killings of civilians by Maoists in the name of "Jana Karbahi".

Despite terroristic methods used by the Maoists, their objective remains political. The result of 1991 general election clearly showed that it was not possible for them to capture state power through electoral means. The radical communists which had put up candidates under the banner of United Peoples Front could win only nine seats in a house of 205 members. Obviously, this led Babu Ram Bhattarai group of UPF to boycott the 1994 mid-term election and choose the armed movement to push their agenda. Some of their frequently mentioned political demands include a republican state, abrogation of the present constitution, holding of a constituent assembly to prepare a new constitution, placing the army and police under peoples' control, abolition of privileges and special rights of the King and Royal Family and formulation of an all-party interim government. Their demands relating to foreign policy include abrogation of all "unequal" treaties with India including the 1950 Treaty of Peace and Friendship, Mahakali Agreement and withdrawal of Indian troops from Kalapani etc. Their original 40- point demands and those presented during the negotiation under Deupa Government included other socio-economic agenda also.

The Maoists have drawn most of their cadres from poverty stricken rural areas, targeting communities and ethnic groups which are traditionally disadvantaged and oppressed and whose political space in the national life is limited. Widespread poverty and unemployment provide easy recruitment ground of their cadres where young boys and girls see no better future for themselves.

The impact of insurgency on the economy has been enormous. It has drained away state resources; development activities in rural areas have practically stopped; and industry, commerce and export sector have badly suffered. The thriving tourism business has nose-dived. Consequently, the economy which had been registering at an average growth of 5 percent in the last decade, has slowed down to negative growth in fiscal year 2001/02 when the Maoist violence intensified. Security budget which had stagnated for over a decade to less than 10 percent of total budget is likely to jump to 18 percent (including army and police budget) during this fiscal year. In addition to 16 percent budgeted, the extra budgetary demand may be around 2 percent of the total budget. This does not include the external assistance received from friendly countries like India, UK and USA. The soaring financial liability of expanding and strengthening army, the civilian police and the newly created armed police is reaching an unsustainable level.

Attempts made earlier to find a negotiated settlement failed. The Deupa Government held three rounds of peace talks during August - September, 2001 but the Maoists broke the talk unilaterally and , attacked the army barrack in Dang on 23 November 2001. This led the Government to declare emergency, officially describe them as "terrorists" and mobilize army in the nation-wide anti-terrorist operation. The rebels have launched major offensives against security forces even after the mobilization of army. In a dramatic development, ceasefire between the Government and the Maoist was declared again on January 30, 2003. Curiously, this happened immediately after the killing of the Inspector General of Armed Police Krishna Mohan Shrestha and his wife by suspected Maoists. As per the Maoists' preconditions for talks, the Government agreed to withdraw the INTERPOL red corner notice, and price tags on the heads of some of their leaders and revoke the previous government's decision declaring them terrorists. Political forces within the country and international community including the UN have welcomed the move with cautious optimism. What ultimately triggered this dramatic development and whether this truce will lead to a long-term peaceful solution to the country's protected problem is now a matter of much debate and speculation. However, there were compelling factors which must have conditioned this decision. The Maoists' side was feeling the pressure from the beefed-up army which was being fully equipped with sophisticated weapons and communication system, night vision helicopters and other logistics rendering it now almost impossible for the Maoist to repeat the type of attack on army barrack they indulged previously without massive losses in their part. They were also feeling the squeeze from the Indian side against using the Indian territory as safe haven. Material support from external sources particularly, India, USA and UK were pouring in to strengthen security agencies to fight the battle against terrorism. Meanwhile, new recruitment into their cadres was getting difficult with a large number of youth leaving the countryside for fear of being conscripted. This had led them to kidnap school children in mass. Maoist cadres on the ground were getting out of control indulging in petty crimes.

On the other side, the King's action of 4 October had created a serious cleavage vis-a-vis political parties, who blamed him for encroaching the constitution and siding with the regressive elements. A four party meeting including, among others, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML agreed to launch a joint agitation against the King's move. Even with the strengthened army and other security forces, the insurgency was assuming the character of protracted warfare. The economy was in disarray. One leading journalist writes - the king "needed a peace dividend to bolster his own legitimacy and that of a government he appointed four months ago after sacking an elected Prime Minister, the King had staked everything on October 4 move, and needed to pull this rabbit out of his hat".

Ethnicity : The constitution of the Kingdom of Nepal (1990) recognizes Nepal as a multi-ethnic and multi lingual Hindu Kingdom. Nepal is a country of great diversity not just in ecological terms. The diversity is reflected in ethnicity, languages, cultures, religion and costumes. It is believed that there are well over 100 ethnic and caste groups, and well over 100 languages and dialects. Despite the religious and cultural harmony subsisting for centuries, the disproportionate domination of limited caste groups particularly Brahmin, Chhetri and Newar in politics, administration and education has been a subject of much debate and controversy. Accounting for about 37.5 percent of the total population, these groups' share in the integrated national governance is 81.7 percent. The Brahmin - Chhetri - Newar domination is strong in all segments of national governance including judiciary and constitutional bodies, cabinet and parliament, political party leadership, local government and public administration, industry and education system, science, technology and culture and civil society leadership.

The most conspicuous case of non-representation in the governance is that of Dalits who constitute about 9 percent of the total population but has no representation in any of the institutions, except in parliament and education in a token form. Their share in the integrated national governance is 0.3. The extreme exclusion can be gauged from the fact that there has been no Dalit minister since the restoration of democracy in 1990. Their position is nil in almost all influential spheres of Nepalese society. The Brahmin-Chhetri-Newar combination control over 80 percent of the leadership positions in important areas of governance. The other un-represented communities are Madhesis and Janajatis. Madhesis are indigenous people living in the Southern plains of Tarai who constitute 31 percent of the total population but accounting for only 11 percent share in the integrated national governance. Their share in the primary national governance (including cabinet, judiciary and parliament) is 17 percent. Within the Madhesi community, the exclusion of Dalits and Janjatis is even more serious. Janjatis are indigenous people accounting for 22 percent of the total population with control over only 7 percent in the national governance. Their share in the primary index of governance improves to 13 percent.

The wide disparity and discrimination is apparent in their access to state resources. Dominant groups have disproportionate access to public goods and services, the labor market, and credit institutions; Dalits and other disadvantaged groups benefit much less from public services. The continuous deprivation and marginalization of the disadvantaged groups who constitute large segments of the Nepalese population could result in a problem of alienation creating an environment conducive to civil strife and insurgency movements. Radical movements grow out of extreme deprivation and exclusion. The Maoists are already using this soft spot of the Nepalese state to their advantage; they are mobilizing the Dalits and hill ethnic groups to their cause promising the distribution of political power along ethnic lines.

Looking Ahead : Nepal's immediate vulnerabilities are not external, but internal which call for timely interventions. Despite problems and weaknesses, there is no alternative to democratic polity. Democracy is the best political system, but also difficult to administer. It calls for continuous hard work, nurturing and care to succeed. It grows and matures with trial and error through constant reforms and refinements. Nepal's future as a functioning democracy is clearly linked with the issue of effective functioning of governance institutions, efficiency in public resources management, effective delivery of services to the people, particularly - the poor, disadvantaged and the excluded , and how far economic and developmental agenda rather than politics will form the principal political agenda. Democracy cannot survive without a high degree of social discipline, there is an urgent need for Nepal to shed the characteristics of a 'soft state'. It is easy to bring new laws and regulations, but equally important to be committed to their implementation. Democracy also entails certain duties and obligations on the part of its citizens and civil society which must be fulfilled.

The last few years has seen increasing strength of public opinion against political in-discipline, abuse of authority, malpractice and corruption. This has helped in enacting stronger legislation, and building institutions against corruption and abuse of authority. Consequently, corruption cases have been filed in the special court against former ministers, public figures and civil servants. The World Bank's recent decision to upgrade Nepal's low case status to base case in its lending operation was, in a large measure, the result of reform measures undertaken during these years. The problem of the disadvantaged communities like the Dalits, Janajatis and Madhises with narrow space in the national life and limited access to governance institutions should be taken up as an agenda of priority.

Addressing the problem of mismanagement of resources and leakage in public and public sector institutions is of critical importance to increase public faith in democracy. Delivery of services can be improved through involvement of local institutions and stakeholders in the management of resources. Nepal has already enacted the landmark Local Self Governance Act to guarantee a strong role of local bodies in the management of public services. In order for this Act to come into full force, more than a dozen existing laws which contradict with this legislation will need to be amended, and commensurate regulations put into place. This also requires building of capacity, strong monitoring and supervision system, and a clear demarcation of functions and responsibilities between local and national government. There is also need for a fresh review at the present structure of local bodies, particularly the VDCs and DDCs. The bodies as they exist now are not financially, administratively and functionally viable, therefore, a fresh need for restructuring is called for.

The Royal action of 4 October seems to cash on the popular disenchantment with the behavior of political parties and their leadership. Some section has tried to justify the action on ground of "failed political leadership" and "misrule" under multi-party democracy. The royal action also seems to have undermined the basic feature the present constitution which recognized the Nepalese people as the ultimate source of national sovereignty. The cabinet formation since then has bypassed the constitutional provision. This together with the hasty promulgation of new ordinances and various regulations to strengthen the Royal power on financial matters, civil administration, foreign affairs, army and police would appear to strengthen the suspicion that efforts are being made to move in the direction of executive monarchy. The king has repeated his commitment to the constitution , multi-party system and constitutional monarchy; however this has yet to be matched by concrete action. There is no commitment to a time - frame for the parliamentary election nor is there willingness to accept the demand to restore the parliament which was prematurely dissolved. In the absence of the House of Representatives, the normal parliamentary functions are performed by the upper house of the parliament which is a permanent body. But the present government is not ready to call the meeting of this body for fear of being outvoted, as the upper house is heavily dominated by UML and NC members. These developments have now encouraged major political parties, particularly - the NC, UML and other left parties to opt for mass agitation. They have presently confined their action to mass meetings, mobilization of party cadres, and processions. If the public participation in the mass meetings organized by the NC and UML is any indication, their popular base remains intact.

(To Be Continued)

(Excerpts of the paper presented at the New Delhi seminar on Indo-Nepal relations organized by the Observer Research Foundations India on February 13-14, 2003)