National 7 (Spotlight Weekly)

Security and Political Environment: A Nepalese Prospective - III

By Dr. Ram S. Mahat

Amid these developments indicating an increasing belligerency of main political parties against the Royal move on the one hand and the intensifying Maoist violence on the other which threatened to create chaos and anarchy in the country, the cease-fire declaration comes as a respite. The whole thing happened after more than a month's secret parleys obviously at the king's initiative and support. However, the initial relief and hope for peace is giving way to fear and apprehension. The Maoists have got all they had wanted as pre-conditions for talk. They are now adding new demands which include the release of their comrades facing trials under various charges, return of the army personnel to their barracks, repealing of the anti-subversion and terrorism act, greater access to the government media, greater freedom for their mass activities etc. The government has already relaxed controls on security checking . Curfews in district towns have been lifted. Skepticism is already being voiced about the Maoists' seriousness for lasting peace unless on their own terms. There is suspicion that they will use the opportunity to consolidate their position as done before. The rebel leader Prachanda is already threatening of unprecedented bloodbath in case of failure to reach an agreement.

With their "terrorist" tag removed, the Maoists are coming over ground, to "peacefully" mobilize masses for the attainment of basic strategic objectives. No code of conduct was agreed for the contending parties to follow during the cease-fire. As other political parties may not be venturing to go to country side as long as the rebels continue to hold arms, the present situation will give tremendous opportunity for the Maoists to openly build and expand their organization under the shadow of guns. The rebels hold enormous fire power which is spread throughout the country side. In addition to those procured in private market and robbed from private households throughout the country, the arms snatched and looted from government forces comprise of about 1600 303 rifles and large number of .22 magnum rifles, pistols, shotguns, sten-guns, 7.62, SLR, 9 mm SMG, 7.62 LMG, rocket launchers, mortar bombs, explosives, huge quantity of ammunitions and other accessories. Only a small fraction (about 15 percent) of the arms looted from security forces has been retrieved so far. Unless and until fool - proof demobilization of the Maoist armed outfits and militant cadres, and surrender of these arms take place, Nepali society will never be free from the specter of violence and terror; therefore, this should be the principal part of any peace package.

From their side, the rebels have not given up anything, not even a commitment to renounce violence. Even if and when such a commitment is made, agreement will have been reached over various political demands. It seems, during the behind-the-scene confabulations the government agreed to discuss constituent assembly, while the Maoist accepted the monarchy within the constituent assembly. As to the issue to dismantling their security outfits, the Maoists may demand the integration of their rebel force into the national security system in some form.

The most interesting part of the new development is the complete absence of any role of the political parties. The refusal of major political parties to join the Chand government, and their belligerent mood against the royal action of 4 October which they termed as unconstitutional must have prompted the King to go his way. It is, however, a question of time not exceeding weeks if nor days before the political parties are invited for talks in finding a solution. A round-table conference already forms one of the a Maoist demands. Notwithstanding their respective positions at the moment, major political parties like the Nepal Congress and UML are not likely to oppose the proposal for constituent assembly, if this is the only way to bring about peace, as long as there is commitment from the concerned parties to accept multi-party democracy, constitutional monarchy, human rights and sovereignty vested in the parliament which already remain the basic features of the present constitution. However, if the constituent assembly is to retain the basic features of the present constitution in the new setup ,the demand for the constituent assembly loses justification, the parliament under the present constitution is competent to make any other constitutional amendments. So far the Maoists have not spelt out their content for the new constitution. If the substance and end-product may be the same, the process (constituent assembly or constitutional amendments) becomes irrelevant. One school of opinion believes that the process of constituent assembly will ensure the recognition of peoples' sovereign right and may resolve the issue of legitimacy. It is for this reason, the Nepali Congress has already opened the debate on constituent assembly, and the CPN -UML kept the option open. However, there is another school which believes that the constituent assembly could be used to strengthen the role of monarchy, hence the scepticism about this demand.

Obviously, the demand for constituent assembly is more of strategic significance than of substance for the Maoists. Should the demand for constituent assembly be agreed upon, the rebels will be seen as 'victorious' and the legitimacy of their violent method established. Such a scenario will give them tremendous psychological advantage in the national politics, almost similar to the situation in 1990 following the successful People's Movement when the Nepali Congress and the left front took over the reign of power. In fact, Babu Ram Bhattarai is already claiming the leadership of the interim government as a 'winner' of a political movement. This probably explains the intent behind their demand for interim government.

Under the circumstances, one question which naturally arises relates to the fate of the present constitution. The Maoists want an abrogation of the present constitution. As for the monarch, his recent actions have already gone beyond the constitutional ambit. Regarding the constitutional forces, despite their commitment to the present constitution, positions taken by parties like UML and RPP are not in keeping with the constitutional provision. RPP supports the Chand government. The UML is not averse to the idea of another interim government without parliament. Only the Nepali Congress and small leftist parties like the Jana Morcha Nepal and Nepal Peasants and Workers Party are insisting on the strict adherence of the present constitution .The constitution does not invisage a situation of parliamentary hiatus beyond a period of six month .This period has already expired since the last Pratinidhi Sabha was dissolved to seek fresh mandate but did not materialise. This view has strong merit even in the context of peace process, The legitimacy for any future arrangement to be negotiated with the Maoists can be provided only by a functioning legislature.

The dynamics of Nepal's political scene is undergoing change. If the newly initiated peace process moves forward, the scenario of the last decade dominated by two or three constitutional parties, with the King as a constitutional head is giving way to triangular power centers with the monarch, constitutional parties and the Maoists. Any future political arrangement will be determined by the respective strength and negotiating skills of these forces. The Maoists which have drawn strength so far from a politics of violence and terror have yet to prove their popular base without arms.

(Concluded)

(Excerpts of the paper presented at the New Delhi seminar on Indo-Nepal relations organized by the Observer Research Foundations India on February 13-14, 2003)