Opinion (Spotlight Weekly)

Signing Of 1997 Kosi Study Agreement

By AB Thapa

I was not surprised when I learnt after my relatively long absence from Kathmandu that His Majesty’s Government has appointed me to lead a Nepalese team constituted to negotiate the Kosi study agreement with the Government of India. Perhaps at that time I was the only person in the government doing some studies of the Kosi problems independently despite the fact that the nature of my official assignment was completely different. I had tried to conceptualize on my own way the Kosi high dam project and the Sun-Kosi high dam project. I had even developed for the first time a new concept of the Kosi navigation canal linking Nepal with the seaport through Ganges, Bhagirathi and Hoogly rivers. I was happy that I would be able to present my views to Indian colleagues. I understood that there is a great deal of misunderstandings between Nepal and India over matters related to water resources in general and the Kosi river in particular. Despite all such misunderstandings, I was totally convinced that it would be terribly unfortunate if the Kosi problems are sidelined any longer.

Nepal’s Suspicion

People in Nepal still have great suspicion that Nepal’s genuine rights have been ignored in the Kosi and Gandak treaties between the two countries. It is true that the 1959 Gandak treaty was absolutely preposterous. By that treaty, Nepal would have virtually forfeited its right to use the water of the Gandak river. Fortunately the Gandak and Kosi treaties have been amended in 1964 and 1966 respectively. The revised treaties particularly the 1966 revised Kosi treaty recognizes Nepal’s absolute right to use the water of the Kosi river.. Unfortunately only very few know that the Gandak and Kosi treaties have already been revised. Even our water resources related legal experts are not aware of it.

I had published in 1997 in WECS bulletin an article entitled “ International Water Right Issues and Nepal’s Position”. It was explained that the Gandak and the Kosi treaties have been already revised in 1964 and 1966 respectively fully safeguarding the Nepal’s legitimate rights. There was good response to that article. That article surprised even some of our top legal experts long since involved in water resources related matters. I learnt from Mr. Ragendra Dahal, Editor of HIMAL, that he had passed on that WECS bulletin to one of our reputed legal expert on international water law. According to Mr. Dahal the noted legal expert was greatly astonished to learn that Nepal had wonderfully renegotiated those treaties. He appeared to have particularly marveled at the way the text of the Kosi treaty was revised “HMG shall have every right to withdraw for irrigation and for any other purpose in Nepal water from the Kosi river and from the Sun-Kosi river or within the Kosi basin from any other tributaries of the Kosi river as may be required from time to time. The Union ( it indicates India) shall have the right to regulate all the balance of supplies in the Kosi river at the barrage site thus available from time to time and to generate power in the Eastern Canal.”

Needless to say that there is always misunderstanding about the real purpose of the Indo-Nepal cooperation in development of water resources ever since the Gandak Treaty was signed in 1959. Thus the task to evolve a common program for Kosi study acceptable to both the countries was not easy. The proposed Kosi study covered several fields of water resources planning. They are dam, power and irrigation engineerings, flood control, navigation etc. As a result, I had to do a great deal of homework to prepare study reports to explain basic approach to be followed in guiding future studies that would be in the interest of both the countries.

Origin of Kosi Studies

Nepal and India both had started independently the Kosi studies a long time ago. The idea of Kosi development was first conceived by India in the past primarily to resolve flood problem. It was originally proposed to build storage dams in the Kosi basin. An Indian team had for the first time visited the Kosi dam site at Barahachetra and Sun-Kosi dam site at Kurule in 1946. However, instead of the Kosi High Dam or dams on other tributaries, the Government of India decided to build embankments on both sides of the Kosi and a diversion barrage at Hanumannagar. These structures were completed in early 1960s. After the completion of the construction of the embankments, the Kosi flood problem has been temporarily resolved.

Nepal was interested to divert the Sun-Kosi river at Kurule to irrigate lands in the Eastern Terai. The study was carried out under the FAO/UNDP technical assistance in 1960s. Incidentally, in mid 1960s I had conducted on behalf of Nepal a brief study of the Kosi river navigation linking Nepal with the seaport. The navigation study had generated a great deal of interest.

Root of Kosi Problem

The Kosi River brings every year an enormous quantity of sediments estimated at 120 million cubic meters from its catchments in the mountains. A big proportion of such sediments are discharged before the Kosi river joins the Ganges, as a result, the river bed was gradually rising in the past. As one course becomes higher than possible adjacent paths, the Kosi river used to shift laterally.. The Kosi river had thus shifted laterally over a distance of about 120 km from east to west within a period of about 200 years. Embankments were built on both sides of the Kosi about 50 years ago. After that the lateral movement of the Kosi river had come to a halt. Now the Kosi river is flowing within a narrow space confined between the two embankments. The Kosi river bed particularly in the stretch upstream of the barrage at Hanumannagar is rapidly rising. The Kosi is on the verge of shifting to the east. Scientists are predicting that the Kosi would again shift to the east and might join the Mahananda river which empties into the Ganges in Bangladesh. Mr. F.A. Shilling Field who had done study of the oscillation of the Kosi for about 25 years had made a forecast that the eastward movement of the oscillation would probably be accompanied with great loss of life and property. This is the view echoed by almost all scientists involved in the Kosi study until now.

We need to do everything possible to resolve the Kosi flood problem because the life and property of millions in Nepal and India are at great risk. We know from the past experience of other countries like China that there is only one solution. We should as early as possible build big storage dams to prevent Kosi flood disaster, despite the fact that now-a-days building big storage dams might look out of fashion. Those opposed to dam building must realize the gravity of situation, and extend their support or else they should offer their own solution to Kosi flood problem

Indo-Nepal Meeting

The meeting to finalize the Kosi Study Agreement was held in Kathmandu between 7 and 9 January 1997. The Indian team was headed by Chairman, Central Water Commission. Other members were Commissioner, Central Water Commission; Member, Central Electricity Authority; Irrigation Secretary, Government of Bihar and few others. Almost all of us in the government including those who participated in that meeting virtually knew nothing about the broader prospect of Kosi development in general and Kosi flood problem in particular. Surprisingly, it had lately become clear that the Government of India too was not paying due attention to disastrous consequences if the storage dams would not be built in Kosi basin in time. So right at the outset of the meeting I had to give a brief presentation on Kosi flood problems. The presentation was quite helpful in explaining our viewpoint on Kosi development. Later on in course of discussion the leader of the Indian team expressed off the record that from now on they are fully convinced of the fact that the biggest benefit to accrue from Kosi development would be the flood control. Technical matters related to Sun-Kosi dam and Kosi navigation canal were thoroughly discussed in the meeting. At the end the Indian side completely endorsed our proposal of the Kosi study. Government of India agreed to bear the entire cost of the feasibility studies of the Sun-Kosi dam project, Kosi dam project and Kosi navigation canal project.

The full implementation of the Kosi development plan would certainly take a very long time. It would have to be carried out in several phases. It appears that the whole Kosi development works might be implemented in the following four phases.

Phasing of Kosi Development

The First Phase extending over a period of about 5 years would be devoted to conduct detailed studies of the Sun-Kosi dam project, Kosi dam project, and Kosi navigation canal project. Soon after the commencement of the detailed study, our government should start to approach prospective donors for funding the construction of the Sun-Kosi dam project Past experience tells that the discussion on financing could be held even based on interim feasibility study report.

The Second Phase covering a period of about 7 years would be spent to complete the construction of the Sun-Kosi dam project. It is going to be entirely a Nepalese project, as a result, parliamentary ratification would not be necessary. During this phase further detailed studies of the Kosi navigation canal and Kosi high dam would be continued.

The Third Phase period could be about 6 years. During this period the detailed study of the Kosi dam project and Kosi navigation canal project would be completed. Arrangements would be made to finance the construction of both these projects simultaneously.

The Fourth Phase period could last about 10 to 15 years. During this period the construction of the Kosi dam project and the Kosi navigation canal project would be completed.

Biratnagar Tomorrow

The future of Biratnagar and its environ is very uncertain. There are two contrasting possibilities. Sunsari district and Biratnagar could any time be flattened by the gushing flood water of the Kosi. There would be heap of sands and ruins everywhere. We could easily preclude such possibility. There could be a completely different picture of Biratnagar and its environ. A Biratnagar prosperous and growing. Few kilometers to the west of the city, there would be a big river port that is all the time busy. Some vessels ( such as coastal river carriers) heading to the south .from the harbour would be destined to faraway ports like Rangoon, Bombay, Colombo etc.