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spotlogo2.jpg (6318 bytes) VOL. 23, NO. 15, OCT 17 -  OCT 23  2003 ( Ashwin 30, 2060 )
OPNION

Poverty Alleviation And Sun-Kosi Project

By AB Thapa 

It   is   well    recognized   that  the  extreme  poverty   rampant  in   Nepal   is  the  root  cause   of   present  widespread  unrest   within  our   country.  Already  for  quite   some  time    countless  seminars,  meetings  and  conferences     are  being  held  in  expensive  hotels   simply  to   confirm,  reconfirm  and  again   and  again  to   confirm  it.   Unfortunately   only  very   few   have  seriously   worked    hard  to   identify  the  satisfactory   solution  to  resolve  the  poverty  alleviation   problems  that  face  our  country.

Nepal  could  leap-frog    in  strengthening  our  country’s  economy  if    we  succeeded  in   rational  utilization  of   our  country’s  land  and  water  resources.   Needless  to  say  that  it  is  a  big   challenge.  We  should   be  able  to  find    ways  to  use  our  natural  resources  to   generate   new  employment  opportunities  within   the  country  itself.   It  certainly  calls   for    great  skill   and  also  the   utmost  caution.   Our  country    could    easily  be  played  in  the  hands  of    some  shrewd   commission   agents  determined    to  enrich  themselves  by  betraying  the   vital  interest  of  our  country. At  present  the   Sun-Kosi  dam  project  stands  out  from  all   other  water  resources  projects  as  the  best   because  this  project  could  help  to  generate    employment   opportunities  to  a  vast  number   of  our  people  within  Nepal  itself.   Implementation   of  the  Sun-Kosi  project  is   equally  important  to  save  the  life  and   property  of  millions  in  Nepal  and  India    from  devastating  Kosi  floods.  There  is   already  an  imminent  danger  that  the  Kosi   River  might  soon  abandon  its  present  course   and  shift  to  the  east  if  the  Sun-Kosi   dam  is  not  built  in  time.   As  a   result,   we  would  not  have  much  difficulty   to  mobilize   within  a  short  period   necessary  financial  resources   to  implement  this   project.   

Natural  Resources  and   Development

Nepal  should  pursue a   policy  to  exploit  our   water  and  other   natural  resources   as  far  as  possible  to   achieve  rapid  growth   of  our  country's   economy  that  would  be  helpful   to  raise   the  living  standard  of  common  people.    Exploitation  of   water resources   alone   should  not  be our goal.  We  have  before   us   few    glaring   past  cases  which  could    be  an  example  to  all  of  us.    Just  after  the  independence of  India,     Bihar  was  regarded   as    the    most   prosperous  state.  It  was  very   rich  in  mineral   resources.  After  a  half   century  of   widespread   exploitation  of    its   vast  mineral   wealth,   Bihar   became  the   poorest  state  of  India.  The   states  like  the Harayana  and  Punjab  in  India,   and  the former  West  Punjab  in  Pakistan  have   achieved  the  highest   degree  of  success  in   raising  the  living  standard  of  common  people    because  they  were  able  to   exploit   their  water  resources  for  the  development  of   their  own  region  by   building  Bhakra, Mangla   and  other  dams.  The  Sunkosi  dam  project    mostly  to  serve  our  country  could  help   to  initiate  works   to  improve  the  economic   condition  of  a  vast  number  of  our    common  people.  This  project    could   work  miracles  for  the  development  of  Nepal.   However,  we  would  be  inviting  one  of  the   biggest  water  induced  disaster  accompanied  by   loss  of  life  and  property  of  millions  in our  region   if  this  project  is  sidelined   much  longer.

We  Could  Easily   Be  Misled

It  surprises   all  of   us  to  find  that  the  decision  makers  in   our  country  are  seen  in  a  great  hurry   to  hand  over  big  projects  like  the  10.8   million  KW  Karnali  Chisapani   Project  to   private  entrepreneurs   to  develop  them  for   exporting  energy  to  neighboring  country,  despite   the  fact  that  it   requires  a  great   deal  of  patience  and  careful  planning  if    such  projects  are  to  be  implemented  in   the  interest  of   our  country. We  could   easily  be  misled  if  we  hastily  took   decision  to  implement  water  resources  mega-projects    without  thoroughly  reviewing  each   and    every  aspect  of  such  projects.   It   is  also  very  strange  that  our  planners   and  policy  makers  are  not  seen  to  pay   much  attention   to  the  implementation  of   the  Sun-Kosi  dam  project  that  could  have   helped  to  a  great  extent  to  resolve  our   poverty  alleviation  problems   by  strengthening    the  weakening  economy  of  our  country.   Moreover,  our  country  would  not  be  finding   much  difficulty  to  mobilize  financial  resources   as  it  is  urgent  to  implement  this  project   to  save  the  life  and property  of  millions   in  India.

The  Sun-Kosi  Dam   Project   

The  Sunkosi  development   has  emerged  as  the  most  important   project    .    This   project    has    become  indispensable  for  the  safety  of   life  and  property  of   millions   in   our   region.  Luckily  for  us,   it    is   also   the   most  attractive   project.  This  project  could      provide   an  excellent  opportunity  for  swift  growth  of    our  country's  worsening   economy.  Moreover,   we  might  be  able  to   implement  this   project  on  our   own   without    excessively   increasing   the   present   level   of   foreign   assistance  to    our   country.   Unfortunately,   virtually   all   of   us     including   the   donors  actively  engaged  in  Nepal's  water   resources   development   are   unaware    of   it.   Such    lack  of    awareness    of    our   country's   water  resources   development   problems     could   indeed   be   very  harmful.  

The  Sun-Kosi  dam   as   well  as  the  Kosi  dam   will  be  needed   to  control   the  Kosi  River.  The  Sun-Kosi   dam  project   would  have   to  be  the   first  to  be   completed   or  else  it   would  not  be   possible  later   on  to   build  it  on  technical  grounds.  The  idea   of  constructing  a  storage  dam  across  the   Sun-Kosi  at  Kurule  is  not  a new  one. Many   technical  teams  were  involved  in  the  past    in  conducting   the  study   of    this   project.

An  Indian  technical  team   was  the  first   to  conduct   a   reconnaissance  study  of  the  Sun-Kosi  dam  site    for  the  Kosi  flood  control  in  1946. The   team  had  favoured  Kurule  dam  site   because   it  appeared  geologically  sound  and  allowed  to    have  a  big  storage  reservoir  that   extended  in Dudh-Kosi  and  Sun-Kosi  valleys.

Nepal's  attention  was   drawn   to  Sun-Kosi  diversion  project   to   irrigate  lands  in  Terai  in 1960s.  A   pre-feasibility  level   study  of   the   Sun-Kosi  dam  project   for  irrigation  in   Terai   was  completed  in  1968   under    the   technical  and  financial   assistance   of the  UNDP/FAO.  This  study  has  also  identified   Kurule   as  the   appropriate  site  for   the  Sun-Kosi  dam    linked    with     a     tunnel   to  deliver     the  Sun-Kosi   water  into  Terai.  The Master  Plan  study   of   the  Kosi  basin   prepared  under    Japanese  assistance  in   1985  endorsed  the   same   location     for    the   Sun-Kosi  dam.

Limited  External    Support  Needed

The   main  component   of  the  Sun-Kosi  dam   project  urgently   needed   for   the   control   of  the   Kosi  flood  is  the  dam  itself.  The  dam   height,  according  to  Kosi  basin  master  plan,    is  going  to   be  relatively   small.   It   is  expected  to  be  between  147 m    and  195 m .  In  initial  stage  the  capacity   of  the  power  station   could  be  only   about   600 MW. The  development   of  irrigation   expected  to  cover  a   total  net  area    of   about    3  lacks  ha   in Nepal   could    be spread   over   a   long  period.  In  this  way  it  would    be  possible   to  bring   down   the   initial  investment   on  irrigation  infrastructure    development  and  hence  the  total  initial   cost  of  the  project.

The  Sun-Kosi  dam  project   is  not    too big  in   size  although   the  benefit  accruable  to   Nepal   from   this   project   is  enormous.   If  the    advantages  like  the  easy  accessibility  to   Sun-Kosi  project  site  and  the short  distance   for  the  transmission  of  electricity   from   its   power  house  to  the  main  national    grid   are  also   taken  into  account,    the  total  initial  cost   of  the   Sun-Kosi  project   could  be    fairly   close   to   the  400 MW  Arun-3  project    cost.   Nepal  would  be  considered     perfectly    capable  to  implement    on  her  own  the  Sun-Kosi  project  under   the financial   assistance  of  foreign donors  since   Nepal  was  qualified  by  the donor  community  to be  competent     to   implement   the   Arun-3  Project  a  long  time  back  nearly    two  decades ago.

Cheap   Electricity

The  Sun-Kosi  dam  would    anyway   be  needed  for    the    flood  control, and  similarly  the  diversion   tunnel  to  deliver    the  Sun-Kosi    water     for  irrigation   in   Terai.   There  can  hardly   be  any    other  substitutes  for  those  structures.    Under  such  circumstances  about   4 ( four ) billion  units (KWh)  of  firm  electric  energy  could   be  generated  at   a  relatively  small   additional   investment.   The  generation  cost   of  electricity  could  be  only  about   one   US Cent  per  unit.   It  need  not  be   explained  that  the  generation   of   such   cheap   power   would  have   extremely    favourable   impact   on   Nepal's  ailing    industries.  Unfortunately,  such  possibility   has   never  been  seriously   considered   neither   by  the  government  nor  by  institutions    like   the  FNCCI.   The  FNCCI      often    seen   raising     voice    in  support   of   the   private   hydropower  developers   should  throw   its  full  weight   behind  the  Sun-Kosi    dam  project  to  ensure  the  lowering  of   electricity  tariff.

Irrigation  and  Power   Benefits

The Sun-Kosi dam project could bring under year round irrigation about 300 thousand hectares of land inside  Nepal.  It would be possible to get one additional dry season crop if the streams and rivulets now serving as the source for irrigation in the  project area  during the  wet season could  somehow be made perennial in dry season also. Such  streams and the rivulets could easily  be made perennial in dry season at minimum cost by linking them with the canal carrying the water diverted  into Terai from the Sun-Kosi. We can expect an additional agricultural production of over half a million tons soon after the completion of the Sun-Kosi project.

The Sun-Kosi power station is expected to generate about 4000 GWh (four billion units) firm power every year. The generation cost of the electricity would be very low if the project is planned and executed prudently. Nepal might be able to produce  electricity at  a  cost  of  only   about  US Cent  1  per  KWh.  

Why the Sun-Kosi Dam Project First ?

At present the  decision  makers   in  our country  are unable to  understand  why  the   implementation of  the Sun-Kosi dam  project should  precede the   commencement  of  the construction of  the Kosi dam project. In 1997 an agreement was signed between Nepal and India to carry out the  feasibility studies of the Sun-Kosi project and the Kosi project along with a navigation canal linking Nepal with the seaport. This agreement is a substantial modification to the earlier understanding reached between the prime ministers of Nepal and India that covered only the Kosi high dam. The modification was made based on the findings of Nepal explained to Indian side in the meeting held  in 1997. There is a very close relationship between the Sun-Kosi and the Kosi projects. Such interrelationship required the inclusion of the Sun-Kosi dam project in the Kosi development  study. It is explained   hereinafter  why the Sun-Kosi project should be built first.

(a)            The diversion of the Sun-Kosi river at Kurule is the most important project  for agriculture development in   Nepal in near future. This very important  project would be precluded for ever after the completion of the  construction of the Kosi high dam project. Fortunately the Kosi high dam project can be built even after the completion of the construction of the Sun-Kosi high dam project.

(b)            The Kosi high dam along with a navigation canal to link Nepal with the seaport is going  to  be a very big project. It will take a  very long time to implement this project. The Kosi River is now on the verge of shifting to the east. Fortunately  the Sun-Kosi  dam   could control the Kosi floods in the interim period until the Kosi high dam   would  be  completed.

(c)            Very serious downstream degradation problems can be expected  to  arise  soon after the completion of big storage dam projects. It is due to release of clear water from the reservoir in big quantity. Such acute degradation problem was encountered  in the Boulder dam of the USA. The river bed in the 77 mile canyon reach had been lowered between 6 and 14 feet. Owing to the exposure of rock ledges the river became stable. However, at Needles, about 130 kilometers away, the river bed rose by 6 metres necessitating the construction of very expensive flood control structures. Similar phenomenon could be expected soon after the completion of the Kosi high dam also. The Sun-Kosi high dam built to control the floods in the interim period could help to reduce downstream degradation. It will  enable   to determine with greater accuracy the volume of  flood regulation storage.

In  Conclusion

It  is  urgent  to   implement  the  Sun-Kosi  dam  project  to  resolve   our  country’s  poverty  alleviation  problems  and   also  to  save  the  life  and  property  of   millions  in  Nepal  and  India.  As  a  result,   there  is  an  acute  need  to  carry  out   various  works  related  to  this  project  with   great  vigor  and  determination.  We  can  hope   from  the  past  experience  that  the  detailed   study  as  well  as  the  construction  of  this   project  could  be  completed   roughly  within   the  next  ten  years  if  the  financial   mobilization  works  and  the  detailed  study  as   far  as  possible  are  carried  out  side  by   side.


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