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COVER STORY |
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COVER STORY |
BREAKDOWN OF
CEASEFIRE Following the breakdown of
ceasefire and peace talks by the Maoists, the country has been pushed into another round
of political instability and chaos. However, the new scenario has also brought the
country’s major political players including the King and the five agitating political
parties much closer as all of them have vowed their strong commitment to the present
constitution. Gauging the prevailing political situation, it appears that while the
country’s major political forces are still demanding the restoration of the House of
Representatives, the monarchists are arguing in favor of holding new elections. This
difference can be considered marginal and can be easily resolved if the major political
forces sit together to decide on the appropriate modality of bringing the constitutional
process to right track. By KESHAB POUDEL With the unilateral breaking of ceasefire
by the Maoists on August 27, 2003, the country finds itself in a situation of chaos and
uncertainty. However, at a time when differences among country’s major constitutional
forces were widening, this new political development opens the possibility to narrow them
down as the rebels’ actions have pushed them to the same corner. Although the leaders of country’s
major political parties have outright rejected the possibility of retreating from their
agitation before the correction of King’s October 4 steps when he dismissed the
government of Sher Bahadur Deuba, prime minister Surya Bahadur Thapa’s latest call
for political reconciliation among constitutional forces opens the door for fruitful
dialogue among them. After the failure of negotiations with the
Maoists, the government seems to have realized that it is the agitating political parties
that are its closest allies. Likewise, the realization must have also dawned on the
political parties that in the prevailing circumstances there is just no way out for them
except to engage in reconciliation and building up of the constitutional and political
process. In his second address to the nation in three months of his tenure, prime minister
Thapa urged political forces to bury political differences and asked them to join the
hands with the government in a battle against forces that are bent on destroying the multi
party democracy and constitutional monarchy. In the last seven months of their political
agitation, major political parties have constantly reiterated that amendment in the
present constitution will address the demands of the Maoists dismissing the
rebels’ call for the election of the Constituent Assembly. The government, too, has
clearly pointed out their point of view putting total faith on the present constitution
and agreeing that amendments would resolve the problem. Despite certain differences, both
forces did propose a common bottom line. As King Gyanendra, too, has expressed his
commitment to the present constitution, this common understanding and realization among
the major forces should eventually pull them all together to find a solution. “The differences among the political
forces who believe in the present constitution are gradually narrowing and they have
started discovering the common grounds,” said a political analyst. “Once the
elected representative system is revived either through election or reinstatement of the
House, the differences between King and political parties will be over.” Since both King Gyanendra and leaders of
other major political parties have publicly reiterated their commitment to preserve the
present constitution, they don’t need a long discussion to bury their differences.
Present crisis between the King and the political parties is related to the functioning of
the constitution. Once the elected representative system is established, it will decide on
the nature of course needed to tackle the crisis. If the forces of common interest join
together, the Maoists could find themselves politically isolated. In his nearly one year long experiments,
appointing two governments, the Monarch’s ambition to bring the peace to the troubled
country could not materialize. Following the breakdown of ceasefire, the situation is back
to square one. The negotiations carried out by the
government nominated by the King also witnessed similar fate as the one met by the
dialogue carried out by elected government. When the first round of peace talks broke
down, the elected representatives were there to bear the responsibility and all political
forces stood together to condemn the Maoists. The situation now is different since there
are no elected representatives and the major political parties are in confrontation with
the monarch. “Although King, prime minister Surya
Bahadur Thapa and agitating political parties have certain differences over procedural
matter, one of the important commonalities among them is that they want to see the Maoist
problem settled within the framework of existing constitution,” said an analyst. The five agitating political parties and
the government do not see any rationale behind the demand of the Maoists to hold the
election for the Constituent Assembly. Even in the modalities of the reconstitution of the
House of Representatives, prime minister Thapa and major political parties have very
marginal differences. Prime minister Thapa has already said that
the election of the House of Representatives is the best option. If the elections cannot
be held in the present circumstances, the demand of the five agitating political parties
to revive the House of Representatives is also a reasonable way out. “I will hold the elections of the
House of Representatives after restoration of minimum requirement of law and order in the
country,” said prime minister Thapa in his nationwide address. He even asked the
parties to suspend their agitation in view of latest development. The major parties like Nepali Congress (NC)
and Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) have already rejected Thapa’s call for
negotiations and suspension of their agitation. But leaders of both the parties have said
that their agitation will be peaceful, disciplined and sans any acts of vandalism.
“This decision reflects that the political parties, who were calling for decisive and
stormy agitation only a few days ago, have mellowed down a lot,” said the analyst.
“This is a positive development and the government must take advantage of the
situation to initiate fruitful consultations with the political parties.” If the prime minister Thapa wants to
hold elections, he needs to announce dates. Otherwise, he has to show commitment to
restore the House. If the house is reinstated, it will become a legitimate forum to decide
political settlement the country requires. In Nepal, monarchy has a long history
performing their role remaining within the constitution. King Gyanendra himself has said
that Monarchy of 21st century is for democracy and democracy for nation and countrymen.
The prevailing international and regional situation, too, does not permit undemocratic
regimes. So, there is absolutely no reason why the solutions cannot be found within the
existing Constitution of the Kingdom of Nepal 1990. Role of Major Political Parties
The major political parties have
initially rejected the call of prime minister Surya Bahadur Thapa to withdraw their
agitation on the ground that the prime minister does not have legitimacy. But, they have
proposed a way to end the hostility. “If the King corrects his
unconstitutional step of October 4 by reviving the House of Representatives and pave the
way for all party government, we will withdraw our agitation,” said Madhav Kumar
Nepal, general secretary of CPN-UML. “Thapa is an illegitimate prime minister
and there is no question of following his directives. Who is he to call us to withdraw our
agitation?” said Nepal. In an interesting development, Nepal, on
Sunday, stated that the 19-point common agenda put forth by the five agitating parties
could be subjected to necessary changes after meeting with the King. Nepal,
addressing his party cadres in the capital, said that the political parties now need to
move ahead from a new direction in the prevailing circumstances. “We urge the Maoists to come for
dialogue. Parties must move from new direction. We are also ready to talk with the
King,” said Nepal. The recent meeting of the UML standing committee concluded that
the latest Maoist move has posed obstruction to the seventh phase of ‘decisive’
stir against political regression. Nepal urged all to make the agitation peaceful and
disciplined. He also clarified that the agitation was not aimed against monarchy. If
anybody says that the agitation is for republic, that should be strictly denounced, he
told UML cadres. The latest tone of Nepal suggests that reconciliation is still in
proximity. Prime minister Thapa has also shown certain
flexibility to negotiate with major agitating political parties on the issue of
reinstatement of the House of Representatives. “Prime minister Thapa has already
agreed to talk on the issue of revival of the House of Representatives. It is up to the
political parties now to bargain with the prime minister,” said a senior politician
close to prime minister Thapa. “When prime minister Thapa could give such big
concessions to the Maoists, I don’t think he will reject the possibility of reviving
the House.” But the political leaders are not yet
buying the assurances by shrewd politician Thapa. “If prime minister Surya Bahadur
Thapa recommends the revival of the House of Representatives, we will welcome him as
a leader. If everybody wants to break confrontation, revival of the House of
Representatives is the best option,” said former prime minister and Congress leader
Girija Prasad Koirala. “But I don’t think Thapa will make such recommendation as
he wants to continue his tenure.” According to constitutionalists, the
constitutional system cannot remain functional for more than six months without
parliament. If King and five agitating political parties continue to maintain their rigid
stance, the country will be pushed towards further chaotic situation prolonging the
political instability in Nepal, which will have many other far reaching consequences. Interests of Foreign Countries Whether the country’s majority of
moderate people or world’s only super power the United States, whether Nepal’s
two giant neighbors or other friendly countries, all have stressed the need for close
understanding among the constitutional forces to find a permanent political and peaceful
solution. India, which issued a statement more than
48 hours after breaking of ceasefire, has made it clear that any political solution must
be based on the framework of multi-party democracy and constitutional monarchy. “India continues to believe that the
principles of multi-party democracy and constitutional monarchy are key to restoring
stability in Nepal and solution to the difficulties facing Nepal needs to be found within
this framework,” a spokesman for the Indian External Affairs Ministry said in New
Delhi. “A meaningful and durable political solution based on national consensus and
involving political parties has to be pursued by all concerned.” Along with others, China, which issued a
prompt reaction, has assured Nepal of continuing support in the efforts made by the
government of Nepal for the realization of peace, stability and development. “As a good neighbor of Nepal, China
sincerely hopes that concerned parties in Nepal can hold national and people’s
interest above all, put aside differences, resume the peace process and bring durable
peace to Nepal at the earliest,” read the statement issued by Chinese Embassy.
“China worries about and regrets that the peace process suffered setback following
the withdrawal from the ceasefire by the anti-government forces.” The US Embassy has severely criticized the
rebels for their latest move. “We urge the Maoists to restore the ceasefire and
resume the negotiation process,” the statement from the US Embassy reads. British foreign secretary Jack Straw
described the collapse of peace-talks between the government and the Maoist as ‘truly
disappointing development for all of us who want to see an end to the problems that
have afflicted the people of Nepal for so long.’ Straw also urged all parties to work
together to find a lasting solution in the interest of the people of Nepal. The European
Union and Japan, too, expressed concern over the breaking of ceasefire and urged Maoist to
resume the peace process. Expected And Unexpected Development
The unilateral breaking of ceasefire
and peace talks by the Maoists was not entirely unexpected but what was unexpected was its
effect on the political scenario with differences among major constitutional forces
getting narrowed down.
When the government nominated
by the King rejected the demand of Maoists to declare the present constitution dead
and announce the constituent assembly, five agitating political parties and the government
discovered their common ground. As in the first phase of aborted talks with
Sher Bahadur Deuba government in November 2001, the deadlock appeared in the same stage
when the Maoists insisted for the elections of Constituent Assembly. It clearly showed
that both the elected government of Deuba and nominated government of Thapa rejected
unconditional elections for the Constituent Assembly. Maoists’ Strategy The government and the Maoist rebels still
have left the possibility of resuming peace talks open. And, given the past experiences,
one cannot rule out the possibility of resumption of ceasefire and negotiations at any
time. Since negotiations and talks surface after
a long undercurrent works, there is still sign of peaceful settlements of the Maoist
problems. Despite unilateral decision to pull out from the negotiations by the Maoists and
government’s decision to brand them terrorist, both the groups have still opened the
door of negotiations but it could take a long time to bury mutual suspicion against each
other. Nepal’s neighboring countries and
other western countries including the United States and agitating political parties, too,
want settlement through peaceful negotiations. ”Maoist problems need to be
settled through the negotiations and dialogue,” said Madhav Kumar Nepal. “Using
guns cannot settle the violent conflict. It is a political problem so it must have
political solution.” As expected, the Maoists are now engaged in
selected killing of senior politicians, police and army officials. Following the inconclusive talks and
assaults against former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, Maoists indicated how their
next round of war strategy would look like. After seven months of relative tranquility,
the country is again turned into the killing fields. Soon after the breaking of the ceasefire
Maoists attacked two senior army officers killing one colonel and seriously injuring
another. By attacking former prime minister Deuba and setting fire at a paper mill in
Dhanusha, Maoists have begun the process of mobilization of their cadres. The Maoist assassinated Colonel Kiran
Bahadur Basnet at his residence on August 28 and seriously injured another colonel
Ramindra Chhetri creating havoc in the capital city. Colonel Basnet, a brother of
popular folk singer Kumar Basnet, had also served as a special security officer at Royal
Palace before moving to Army Headquarters. Late Colonel Basnet had just been promoted
by another rank and was on his way to his office when the Maoists shot him from close
range at his residence. Colonel Basnet also worked as an arms and ammunition expert and
certified the types of bullets and guns used in the Royal Palace massacre in June 2001. He
had given an expert opinion to two member high-level probe commission set up to probe the
Royal Palace killings. Likewise, colonel Chhetri has also served
the RNA for long. He is the producer of television program produced by Royal Nepalese
Army. His program was said to be very popular among the common people and used to roundly
criticize the rebel’s activities. He headed the psy ops of the RNA. During the period of ceasefire, Maoist
leaders had shown humane approach and seemed eager to join the political process. What
prompted them to resort to such unpopular actions killings innocent people? Their actions
show that the Maoists are themselves giving a bad name to their organization. Another victim of the rebel rage was former
state minister of Home Devendra Raj Kandel who was injured after the Maoists opened fire
to him on August 29 at his residence in Kusunti, Lalitpur. Kandel, who is from Nawalparasi
district, was minister of state of home when Deuba imposed state of emergency. The Maoist cadres are also
following their old styles of killing villagers and abducting local level
political workers. By attacking people at the capital city,
the Maoists seem eager to show that their target may be anyone and anywhere. Like all
rebel groups, the Maoists are trying to inject insecurity in the minds of the people. Following the Maoists assault, security was
tightened in the capital. Since Nepalese security system has shown severe lacking in
effective intelligence, Maoists may continue to target many others. As seven years of
violence has already encouraged criminal elements to become active, the upsurge of Maoist
violence will only help to create more terror in the city. How Long Will It Last? It has already lasted seven years since the
beginning of Maoist violence in the country. Nepal’s mountainous topography with
thick forest covers, experts say, give insurgents good chance to survive for a long period
of time.
If it continues for another couple of
years, they could even develop into a self-sustaining group. Across Nepal’s porous
southern borders where many similar kinds of Maoist groups and other insurgents are
active, Nepalese Maoists may find a regular supplier of arms and ammunition. The security organizations believe that the
Maoists have already improved their strength and fire power capability by regrouping and
accumulating different kinds of upgraded versions of weapons. Security officers claim
local level Maoist rebels have their own command and control system and may even be out of
control of the central party leadership. Once other elements penetrate into the
Maoists’ local cells and central level lose command and control, the Maoists may pose
other problems in the region. “Many local level commanders, who are now working on
their own collecting the money and other resources, have developed their own system. If
this is allowed to flourish, there is going to be deadlier rebellion in the region,”
said a senior police officer on condition of anonymity. As police forces have already removed most
of the police station in southern border points and mid hills, the rebels can move freely
from one end to another. The river banks and basin supports Maoists to travel from place
to place. If Nepal also turns into a lawless nation,
not only the Maoists but other criminal elements will also benefit. South Asian Context South Asian countries seem to be in major
trouble as there is no sign of any relief from the terror. The day before the ceasefire
was broken by the Maoists in Nepal, bomb blast occurred in India’s commercial capital
of Mumbai killing 50 innocent people. In Bangladesh the situation is not good
either. In the last couple of weeks, two opposition political leaders were assassinated in
two major cities. In Pakistan, there is debate over the constitutional process and the
Pakistani security personnel are struggling to destroy Al Qaeda terrorist network. In Sri Lanka, the over one year old
ceasefire continues but the negotiations lay stalled. There are major differences between
prime minister and president over the constitutional functions and peace process.
Bhutan, too, has problems as more than 100,000 Bhutanese refugees are living in Nepal
and ULFA – rebel groups of Northeastern India - has developed base inside Bhutanese
territory causing great concern to India. The upsurge of violence and anarchy in
Nepal will create more troubles in the region. Prolonging political instability will
create more chaos and lawless in Nepal paving the way to develop safe haven for criminal
elements. Whether for the monarch or other political
forces, prolonging political instability is not on their interest. Sooner the settlement
between the major political forces is reached better for the future of the country. Despite the dismissal of Deuba government a
year ago and the direct rule by King Gyanendra, the country could not find respite from
seven years long violent insurgency. The two governments appointed by the King have failed
to bring the normalcy in the country and to pave the way for elections of the House of
Representatives. As the ceasefire is broken and the country pushed to the civil war, it
will be virtually impossible to resolve political deadlock without elected
representatives. |
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