National 2 (Spotlight Weekly)

IMPACT OF INSECURITY
Worst Case Scenario

The sudden resumption of conflict will make it all the more difficult for the government to realize its budget targets

By SANJAYA DHAKAL

“Our country never had to face such a large number of problems like now and there never was such a pressing need for urgency to tackle all these problems together now.” This was what Finance Minister Dr. Prakash Chandra Lohani said when he gave his budget speech for the fiscal year 2003/04.

Dr. Lohani : Serious Setback

One and a half month later his problems have compounded by leaps and bounds. Dr. Lohani, a well-known economist and politician, had given a way too much emphasis on the peace and security as pre-conditions for full implementation of his budget.

Consequently, with peace process in tatters, his projections now seem too distant – especially in the case of revenue mobilization and resource mobilization. It does not need an expert economist to say that in absence of peace and security, development efforts will get severely derailed.

Dr. Lohani had estimated that the economy would grow by 4.5 percent this year – a sharp improvement compared to the 2.4 percent growth in the fiscal year of 2002/03 and negative 0.5 percent growth in 2001/02. In fact, Dr. Shankar Prasad Sharma, vice chairman of the National Planning Commission (NPC) had gone a step ahead to declare that in the ‘best case scenario’ (read complete peace), the growth could reach six percent. But the government now seems to have to bear the worst-case scenario.

Another setback could be the government’s wish to carry out extensive development efforts in conflict-affected areas of mid-western and far western region.

In this year’s budget, the government had apportioned around Rs 6.46 billion for the development of the infrastructures and socio-economic upliftment of the people of mid-western and far western region in this year’s budget – a rise by 34.3 percent compared to the last year.

But thanks to the breakdown of ceasefire, the officials are worried that they may not be able to utilize the funds as desired. “With the new situation in the country, we fear that the resources may not be utilized as we would have liked,” said Dr. Shankar Sharma, vice chairman of the National Planning Commission. The budget this year had heavily relied on the successful outcome of the peace talks. With peace pushed to the background, the budget targets will be hard to meet, concede officials.

The budget had proposed Rs 5 billion for the road and transport sector out of which Rs 1.36 billion was set aside for the road development in the mid west and far west regions – an increase by 214 percent compared to the previous year’s budget.

Due to the peace process, the government had slashed the security expenses by Rs 580.5 million compared to the previous year and earmarked Rs 14.23 billion for this purpose. “Fortunately, the budget had the foresight of increasing the miscellaneous budget of the Finance Ministry to meet the supplementary budget in emergency need. Likewise, the fund of Rs 1.7 billion, which was set aside for holding elections, could also be used as contingency fund,” said a senior official at the finance ministry.

Likewise, NPC officials also flaunt the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) as one of the factors that could help the government in times of instability. With the objective of aligning it with the Tenth Plan, the budget had set aside almost 72 percent of the development budget to implement the priority number one of the MTEF. Another 23 percent was apportioned to implement number two priority.

According to officials, this feature will make it possible for any government to implement the budget at times of instability.

Chinese Festival In Town

To mark the deep friendship between Nepal and China, the Chinese Embassy together with the World Cultural Net organized a major China Festival 2003 at the Birendra International Convention Center (BICC) in Kathmandu. The week-long festival, which kicked off on September 1 showcased scores of different stalls offering everything from electronic items to Chinese food. Crown Prince Paras Bir Bikram Shah Dev opened the ceremony amid a special function. Chinese ambassador Wu Congyong highlighted the existing bilateral relations between the two countries at the ceremony. The festival also included exhibition of Chinese films, acrobatic show, book show and kite festival. The festival will be held for one day in Pokhara city next week.

BUS TRANSPORT
Restricted Movement

The resumption of conflict and imposition of restrictions have dealt a blow to the long distance transport sector

By DEWAN RAI

One of the most telling affects of the abrupt end of the seven month old ceasefire was felt by the transport sector – particularly its long distance service.

Immediately after the breakdown of ceasefire, the government has intensified search and screening of vehicles and passengers in order to bolster its security arrangement. A number of places across the country witness night-time curfew clamped by local administration, which also had a serious impact on the night-buses.

Buses and trucks : Hit by insecurity

The effect is apparent at the bus ticket counters in Gongabu and Kalanki – the two places which used to be crammed by passengers seeking tickets. They sport a deserted look these days. Although the counters are open for advance booking of bus tickets on festive occasion of Dashain and Tihar, which fall on October; the turnout of passengers has dipped sharply after the breakdown of ceasefire.

After the torrential rainfall in July swept away various parts of Mugling–Narayanghat section and some other parts of Prithvi Highway, the bus services were badly crippled. Just as the normal traffic was beginning to flow, the Maoists unilaterally broke down the truce, triggering further deterioration.

Following the murder of high-ranking military official in Kathmandu the security has been tightened; curfew has been imposed at Narayanghat and Hetauda, the major thoroughfares of east-west highway. Almost 30 check posts have been installed along the highway at various places for security reasons. All this has severely affected the night bus services in long routes. “The night bus service has come down by almost half. Because of curfew, the buses will not be able to meet the schedule,” Surya Man Singh, director of Makalu Bus Service – a well known private bus operator.

The insecurity also has had a crippling fallout on the business of bus transport entrepreneurs. Take the case of Narayan Malla who sells tickets (of central region bus operators committee) at a counter in Gongabu Bus Park. Malla used to sell tickets worth Rs 7000 per every bus en route to Kakadbhitta, 600 km east of Kathmandu on a normal day previously. But these days thanks to lack of passengers traveling on long routes, he only manages to sell tickets worth only Rs 1000. Out of that Rs 1000, Rs 750 has to be paid to bus operator committee leaving a paltry Rs 250 to the owner. “This has greatly affected our business. It will not be possible to sustain for a long time if the situation does not improve,” said Malla.

Suryaman Singh whose Makalu Bus Service runs buses on 29 major routes of eastern region argued that the day bus service also has been affected by the situation of insecurity and heightened check-ups and passenger screening.

Narayanghat is just a 5 hour drive from Kathmandu. But these days it takes almost 9 hours to reach there by which time the sun will already have set and curfew hour begins forcing the bus to remain there overnight. According to Singh, because of that it takes 36 hours to reach Kakadbhitta whereas earlier it used to take just 12 hours. “When bus doesn’t come on scheduled time, naturally the service has to be curtailed,” said Singh.

Likewise, the Kathmandu- Pokhara route is also not an exception. Since the landslides crumbled some section of Prithvi highway near Marsyangdi Hydro Power Project at Tanahu district last month, driving at night has been prohibited. “We are facing undeclared curfew at Damouli and Gorkha districts,” said Gokul Neupane, one of the workers of Gandaki Bus Service Operator Committee.

Out of total 80 buses of the committee, including day and night service buses, 19 night buses have not left their garage for a month. He also complained about clumsy checking at Thankot check post and resulting traffic jams. “The bus which arrives at Naubise at 1 pm, will finally enter Kathmandu only at 10 pm – just to cover the distance of around 25 km,” he said.

Normally around 300 night-buses ply in and out of the capital everyday. This number has dropped to 175 since last one week.

Transport entrepreneurs are in a dilemma. Dashain festival is their peak season. Tens of thousands of people travel by bus to reach their natives to celebrate with their family members during this occasion. But unexpectedly tickets sale has fallen. Due to the security screening and road condition they are now more worried about how to escort those passengers safely to their destination who have already booked their tickets.

“We let them check as they like but the government must lift the curfew along the highway,” opined Bishnu Siwakoti, president of Federation of Nepalese Transport Entrepreneurs. “The lengthy and frequent check of the same luggage at every check post delays the traveling and troubles passengers. The government must manage it better.”