Opinion (Spotlight Weekly)

Planning Commission And Kosi Disaster

By AB Thapa

At present the top echelon of the National Planning Commission is composed of some of those persons who were at one time or other deeply involved in the study of the Nepal’s water resources. Everybody is expecting that from now on the National Planning Commission would be able to fulfill effectively its role to coordinate and if necessary even to guide various ministries and institutions in the implementations of the water resources development plans.

Our planners including politicians, businessmen, various activists and all others are seen time and again telling people that water is our greatest resource and we are going to be rich once we develop it. We often completely forget the fact that the development of water resources in the interest of the people is a big challenge. It can not be accomplished without tremendous efforts. Unfortunately until now we planners involved in the development of water resources are sharing with our people mostly sweet dreams instead of realistic plans. As a result, we have virtually failed so far to observe that our country is already at the threshold of a new phase of water resources development that requires in one way or other active participation of most of the institutions of our country. The Kosi development to save the life and property of millions in Nepal and India is already the most important task before our country.

Kosi Disaster

The Kosi River known as the river of sorrow of the Bihar shifted from east to west over 12O km in the last 200 years. In the past about 8000 sq. km. of lands have been laid waste as a result of the sand deposit. In course of shifting, many towns and villages were wiped out, and heavy losses of property, cattle, and human life were inflicted. Fortunately the embankments built few decades ago temporarily helped to check the lateral shifting of the Kosi. But at present the detention basin upstream of the barrage at Hanumannagar is almost full of sediments. Soon the embankments would be ineffective to control the Kosi floods.

The Kosi river is now on the verge of shifting to the east far away from its present course. The peoples of Nepal and India are heading for a natural disaster of an unprecedented scale. But hardly anyone in Nepal appears to be concerned. Even the institutions like the ICIMOD noted for their role in studies of the environmental problems and water resources of Nepal have not yet realized the extent of this danger. There is absolutely no mention about it in the recently prepared water resources strategy report that has led great emphasis on water induced disaster mitigation. It would be unfortunate if the Kosi swing to the east takes the life and property of millions in South Asia by surprise while the National Planning Commission and other concerned government agencies would merely be silent spectator.

All the past and present studies and the very recent observations indicate that the Kosi is quickly turning into a hanging river and we are heading for an unprecedented flood disaster. Such flood disaster would not be just one time event. Like the Yellow river flood disaster in China in the past, the ferocious floods of the Kosi would also be hitting again and again particularly the North Bihar and Eastern Nepal wiping out towns and villages, and laying vast area of lands bare with sand deposits. The eastern and the southern boundaries of the flood-affected area could extend upto the Mahananda River and the Ganges respectively. India's railway and roadway linkages with her northeast states could also be severed.

Role of Planning Commission

It would be very unfortunate if the National Planning Commission continued to be not concerned about the Kosi River related matters. The Planning Commission should be actively involved in the resolution of the Kosi problems. The Kosi River development has emerged as the most important task before us requiring immediate attention of the whole country. Surprisingly very few of us are aware of it despite the fact that the life and property of millions in Nepal and India are at great risk. The Kosi challenge is enormous. Our country could be immensely rewarded if we succeeded in resolving the Kosi problem. The Kosi development could make Nepal strong economically to break free from the poverty and underdevelopment, and to take a quantum leap forward in all round development. However, our failure would be accompanied by loss of life and property of millions in Nepal and neighbouring countries. Apart from these losses our country would also miss a golden opportunity to boost our national economy in a shortest possible interval of time.

In view of the enormity of the Kosi development works and also very strong linkage of such works with various other sectors, the Kosi development works by now should have been occupying the dominant place in our national development plan. Though very strange it might look, there is hardly any mention of the Kosi flood problems neither in the recently prepared water strategy study report nor in any one of the national plans. The National Planning Commission appears to be comp[lately unaware of the Kosi flood problems. Very recently Planning Commission even endorsed a plan to invite private developers to build the Dudh-kosi storage dam project and the Lower Arun project. These two projects would have virtually precluded the plan to build storage dams to control the Kosi River.

It was really very strange that there is not any reference to Kosi flood problem in the water strategy report. Nevertheless it would not have been possible to present in depth the Kosi problems in the water resources strategy report. The Kosi development strategy study would be too vast to be a part of the relatively sketchy water resources strategy study of our country. Thus, it is indispensable to prepare a separate KOSI DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY.

Solution to Flood Problem

Provision of dams in the drainage area with very big storage volume is the only lasting solution to the Kosi flood problem. It is the opinion of the renowned experts and scientists involved in the Kosi study in the past. We can draw such lesson from the experience of China also. It can be concluded that there are not any substitutes for the large storage dams to control the Kosi floods. Thus our only recourse is storage dam. The storage dams should be provided in time. Unfortunately some peoples in Nepal and India have misgivings about the Kosi dams. Such misgivings are unfounded and they are often the result of present global disenchantment with the high dams particularly for the generation of hydroelectricity. In case of the Kosi dams this type of notion is completely misplaced. The life and property of too many peoples in Nepal and India would be at great risk if the Kosi dams are not built in time. Those who have in their mind other ideas should come forward and offer their own solution to resolve the Kosi flood problem to save the life and property of millions.

The 1997 Indo-Nepal Study Agreement

In 1997 an agreement was signed between Nepal and India to carry out feasibility studies of the Sun-Kosi project and the Kosi project along with a navigation canal linking Nepal with the seaport. This agreement is a substantial modification to the earlier understanding reached between the prime ministers of Nepal and India that covered only the Kosi high dam. The modification was made based on the findings of Nepal explained to Indian side in the meeting. There is a very close interrelationship between the Sun-Kosi and the Kosi projects. This interrelationship required the inclusion of the Sun-Kosi dam project in the Kosi development. Even a simple analysis of both these projects clearly illustrates the following points that help to explain why the Sun-Kosi project should be built first, and as a result, the feasibility study of the Sun-Kosi Project had to be completed as soon as possible. (a) The diversion of the Sun-Kosi river at Kurule is the most important project of Nepal for agriculture development in near future. This very important project for Nepal would be precluded for ever after the completion of the construction of the Kosi high dam project. Fortunately the Kosi high dam project can be built even after the completion of the construction of the Sun-Kosi high dam project. (b) The Kosi high dam along with a navigation canal to link Nepal with seaport is a very big project. It will take very long time to implement this project. But the Kosi river is on the verge of shifting to the east. The Sun-Kosi could be the project to control the Kosi floods in the interim period till the Kosi high dam is completed. (c) Very serious downstream degradation problems could be expected to arise after the completion of storage dam projects. It is due to release of clear water from the reservoir in big quantity. Such acute degradation problem was observed in Boulder dam of the USA. The river bed in the 77 mile canyon reach had been lowered between 6 and 14 feet. Owing to the exposure of rock ledges the river became stable. However, at Needles, about 130 kilometers away, the river bed rose by 6 metres necessitating the construction of very expensive flood control structures. Similar phenomenon could be expected after the completion of the Kosi high dam also. The Sun-Kosi high dam built to control the floods in the interim period can help to reduce downstream degradation. It will also help to determine with greater accuracy the volume of flood regulation storage.

In Conclusion

Nepal can draw lesson from the Columbia River Treaty between the United States and Canada. That treaty sets a perfect example how two neighbouring countries can conclude a mutually beneficial agreement without harming the interest of the upstream riparian country. However, it is natural for an inexperienced country like Nepal to have misgivings that the Kosi high dam project wrongly orchestrated to benefit India only in the past would sail through while the Sun-Kosi dam project to serve almost exclusively Nepal would be dropped out. In the Kosi development Nepal need not have such fear. Our country is in an equally good bargaining position. The feasibility studies would also have to recommend the timing sequence of each of the projects relative to one another. A simple technical analysis carried out even at this stage will not fail to come to the following conclusions:

(a)The Sun-Kosi high dam project would have to be built first. It should be built as soon as possible to preclude the growing threat from the Kosi floods. It is not a very big project. Nepal alone could implement this project under the financial and technical assistance of India and other donor countries.

(b)The Kosi high dam project together with a 120 km long navigation canal in Indian territory is going to be a very big project. This project could provide Nepal an access to the sea so it is a project equally important for Nepal. The complete study of the Kosi project is expected to take many years. In the later years of study, the participation of renowned experts from various other countries might be necessary. Finally after many years when the time would come for the implementation, at that time Nepal would be capable to implement on its own various components of this project within its jurisdiction without involving India. Nepal might be needing only the financial and technical assistances from India and other donors.

(c)Unlike the Karnali and the Pancheshwar projects, the Kosi high dam project is crucial to the safety of a very large number of people in India. The people of Bihar and West Bengal going to be directly affected by the Kosi floods and also the people in North-East Indian states running the risk of being cut off from the rest of India can be expected to bring pressure on the Indian decision makers to be more flexible in dealings with Nepal on the Kosi development.

(Thapa writes on water resources)