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COVER STORY |
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COVER STORY |
POLL PROSPECTS King Gyanendra’s call
for holding the polls within the next one year takes the conflict-torn country on a new
course. Although the prevailing security situation does not appear favorable to hold the
polls, the decision, if implemented, can restore the derailed democratic process to the
right track. With this speech King Gyanendra seems to have thrown the ball to the court of
political parties. The parties, which till now have been clamoring for the restoration of
the parliament, now realize that polls could be the only generally acceptable way out of
the current imbroglio. However, their concern is to ensure that the elections are held in
free and fair manner. Therefore, all the political forces now need to agree on the
mechanism to ensure that they are held in proper environment By SANJAYA DHAKAL
In a marked departure from earlier practices of
criticizing the political parties King Gyanendra, while delivering his speech in Pokhara
on March 28, called for their cooperation to hold the elections. “We call on all concerned to create an environment
wherein the governance of the country can be handed over to elected representatives by
initiating elections to the House of Representatives within the year 2061. The elections
must be free and fair. Every adult citizen must strongly feel the franchise can be
exercised to elect the representatives of one’s own free will. We are hopeful that
necessary cooperation will be forthcoming from all those who have faith in multi-party
democracy, including political parties.” – King Gyanendra, Pokhara, March 28,
2004, The Himalayan Times daily. The Pokhara speech has clearly paved the way for the polls.
By the speech, the King has indicated that he realizes that the country cannot linger on
in status quo. But, he has also indicated that restoration of the parliament is not an
option. In the evolving scenario, the political parties need to grab the opportunity to
put the country back to the track of democracy. The political parties, too, are not in a position to outright
reject the proposition. For the last one and a half years, the political parties have
engaged in agitation demanding an end to regression. Their demand for the restoration of
the parliament, too, has come under the shadow since the official tenure of the previous
(dissolved) House of Representatives comes to an end later this month. “Elections appear as the only viable option before
them,” said a political analyst. “But naturally, they would wish to ensure that
elections are held in free and fair manner.” In his speech, King Gyanendra has also underlined the
necessity of holding polls in free and fair manner; and in an atmosphere where there is no
fear. How to ensure such atmosphere is the major issue at hand. And until and unless the
King and political parties bury their differences, such atmosphere cannot be imagined. Ball In Parties’ Court The country is not in an ordinary situation and nobody should
expect ordinary atmosphere for polls. “It would be insane for the parties to expect
that somehow Maoists, who are fighting for their own cause, would have a mercy on them and
decide to allow them to contest the polls without hindrance. Of course, their demand for
minimum poll-friendly environment is justified. But to create that environment, the
parties and the King should first try to bridge the gap between them,” said an
analyst. “If an understanding is reached with the Maoists, so much the better. But
the parties should shed off thoughts that polls should be held only after resolving Maoist
problem. If the problem prolongs, how long should the country wait before it has elected
and legitimate government at the helms of affairs? Even if the parliament had not been
dissolved in May 2002, its tenure would have come to an end by now and it would have been
time to elect new representatives.” Political leaders have given mixed response to King
Gyanendra’s speech in Pokhara. Madhav Kumar Nepal, general secretary of the Unified
Marxist Leninist (UML), has said that it is a routine speech filled with rhetorics.
“There is nothing new in the speech. Only new words have been used to express the
same old things. There are promises only,” said Nepal. “A promise has been made
to hold the polls in 2061 but it does not look likely.” Nepal also complained that when the government is unable to
provide security even to district headquarters, how they can hold elections across the
country. His point is valid except that elections have to be held. Polls have been held in
conflict torn places like Kashmir. There are reports of pre-poll violence in Sri Lanka
currently. Luckily in the past Nepal had to face no such situation and elections were held
in peaceful environment. But times have changed and the political parties will also need
to change their strategies as well. “Rather than debating on the necessity of
elections, they would do well by working to create necessary environment in cooperation
with all concerned,” said the analyst. Most of the leaders of the five agitating parties echo Nepal
in their response to royal speech. Lokendra Bahadur Chand, former prime minister and
leader of Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), has welcomed King’s speech saying,
“The King has outlined his commitment to (hand over) to the elected representatives.
It is now up to the political parties to take initiatives from their end.” Many political pundits feel that the issue of holding
elections could be sorted out if the King forms an all party government as per the
recommendation of major mainstream parties. “That way the grievances of the parties
will also be settled; and the King’s promise can also be kept,” said the
analyst. Furthermore, elections at this juncture could bring all the
constitutional forces together on a single plank – a vital and necessary element at a
time when the country is dealing with the insurgency. Stepped Up Violence
The two major assaults by the Maoist rebels within a
span of last one month resulting in the deaths of over 200 people has delivered a setback
to the government’s promise to hold general elections to resolve the political
imbroglio enveloping this impoverished Himalayan Kingdom. Just as the Home Minister Kamal Thapa was saying that the
government had already immersed itself in the ground works in security, administrative and
political fronts to prepare for the polls – sometime later this year – the
rebels launched their attack throwing cold water over the plans to hold polls to end the
complicated political impasse that has been dogging this country ever since the elected
parliament was dissolved nearly two years ago in May 2002 by then Prime Minister Sher
Bahadur Deuba. Subsequently, in October 2002, Deuba was dismissed by King
Gyanendra, ending the days of elected government sparking controversy between monarchy and
the political forces. Moreover, when Deuba let the tenure of the local elected bodies
expire in July 2002 as he was unable to hold elections in view of Maoist threat, even the
village level bodies were left without elected heads - leaving the countryside virtually
in a political vacuum. So, when the rebels launched ferocious attack in Bhojpur
bazaar – the headquarters of eastern hilly district of Bhojpur - on March 2 and
another bloody attack in Beni bazaar – the headquarters of western hilly district of
Myagdi on March 20, they dealt an upset to government plans. In Bhojpur incident, 32
security personnel and around equal number of rebels were killed while 50 security
personnel and around 20 civilians were killed in Beni attack. In Beni the security forces
claimed to have recovered around 100 dead bodies of rebels from the site.
Bhojpur and Beni attacks came at a time when the
government had been claiming that the rebels had been sufficiently defeated to limit their
activities to ‘laying on ambushes and stray explosions’. Prime Minister Surya
Bahadur Thapa himself had said that the rebels no more could launch organized attacks like
the ones witnessed in Bhojpur and Beni. He had hinted that general elections would be held
around November this year. Even after the Beni attack, Home Minister Kamal Thapa, on his
part, said that although it was aimed at disrupting the poll preparations, the government
would continue to move ahead with its commitment to hold elections. “Their (Maoist)
actions are always targeted against democracy and constitutional process. But the
government is steadfast in its commitment to hold the polls as soon as possible,”
said Minister Thapa. But there are few who buy his argument. Most of the political
parties have repeatedly stated that no elections can be held in prevailing situation of
insecurity. “We extremely want elections but there has to be
conducive environment for that,” said Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli, a standing committee
member of the Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) – the largest mainstream communist
party. “How can the government hold elections when it cannot provide security even to
district headquarters? How can political leaders go to remote districts and villages for
campaigning amid this mayhem?” he asked. Arjun Narsingh KC, spokesperson of Nepali Congress (NC),
trashed the government’s claims of holding polls terming it as its ploy to lengthen
its stay in power. “Without resolving the current crisis, elections cannot be
held,” said Homnath Dahal, spokesperson of Nepali Congress (Democratic). The political parties are not only questioning the decision
to hold polls but also the legitimacy of the present government. “This government is
illegitimate and unelected, how can it be trusted to hold free and fair elections in the
first place?” asked Madhav Kumar Nepal, general secretary of the UML. EC Ready For Polls
The chief elections commissioner (CEC) at the Elections
Commission (EC) Keshav Raj Rajbhandari recently told government news agency RSS that the
commission is able to hold the polls any time should the government decide. The CEC has said that the commission will start collecting
and updating the voters’ list throughout the country beginning mid-April. In the last
general elections held in 1999 there were over 12 million voters in the country. “The
government has agreed to provide us the adequate budget to set up our own offices in all
75 districts of the country,” said Rajbhandari. At present, EC has its office only in
30 districts. But the talks of election seems easier said than done.
Maoists have repeatedly made known that they are against any election. Maoist chairman
Prachanda has already stated in the recent past that any election without resolving the
political crisis raging in the country would be meaningless and unacceptable. “It is still possible to hold elections. We are not
talking of holding the election at one go – it will be held in several phases,”
said Dr. Prakash Chandra Lohani, Finance Minister who has set aside around US$ 25 million
for the purpose of holding elections in this year’s budget. Even Deuba government had initially planned holding elections
in seven phases in November 2002 but in the last minute and under pressure from other
political parties, he proposed to postpone it by one year. King Gyanendra instead of
agreeing to his proposal, dismissed Deuba. Holding elections in a mountainous and conflict ridden
country like Nepal is very difficult. Providing security to thousands of ballot boxes and
polling booths are a logistical nightmare in resource-scarce country like Nepal. In the
past elections, there were over 15000 polling centers spread across the country. And there
are many inaccessible parts of the country where transportation means are virtually
non-existent and where officials will have to trek for days to reach. With the security
personnel, including the Royal Nepalese Army, Nepal Police and Armed Police Force already
stretched in their efforts to control ongoing insurgency, security experts say the
government will find it extremely difficult to provide additional security in case of
elections. But for many, elections appear the only way out of the
present impasse. Even the western donor countries have started to become restive due to
lack of elected parliament and elected local bodies. “Surely, there has to be an
election. Otherwise, donors will be hard pressed to continue with their support
programs,” said an official of a western donor agency not wanting to be named.
Even the political parties privately concede that
elections could be the best alternative to restore the democratic and constitutional
process, which was derailed by King’s October 4 moves. But they do not trust that any
polls held in prevailing situation and by a handpicked government would be free and fair. There are 205 electoral constituencies across the country.
Nepal has already witnessed three general elections since the restoration of democracy in
1990 – in 1991, 1994 (mid term) and 1999. During the 1991 polls, 47 political parties
were given legal recognition by the EC. The number rose to 65 in 1994 mid term polls.
Likewise, during the elections of 1999 there were 100 political parties that contested the
polls. The commission has introduced the system of voters’ ID
in around thirteen constituencies. It plans to introduce the voters’ ID system in all
of these constituencies gradually. Even as general elections promise to provide a legitimate way
out of the political and constitutional impasse, the escalation of conflict indicates it
will be an extremely uphill task. |
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