National 3 (Spotlight Weekly)

Heightened Prospects

The overt political developments as well as the undercurrents suggest that another round of peace talks may not be far away.

By SANJAYA DHAKAL

Amid the rising cacophony for the need to enter into peace negotiations to end the raging conflict, the appointment of a new government led by the same leader who had first opened the door of talks with the Maoists in 2001 has raised hopes for talks in this Himalayan Kingdom.

PM Deuba : Call for negotiations

Likewise, the recent announcement by the president of Nepali Congress (NC) Girija Prasad Koirala that he would take initiatives to end the Maoist conflict also suggest that political undercurrents might be active. Though he denied reports that he will meet top Maoist leaders in India, where he has gone this week for health check up, there are ample reasons to believe that efforts are underway to bring the Maoists to the table again.

Immediately after his appointment Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba on June 2, made a public statement asking the Maoists to come forward for holding ‘honest talks’. PM Deuba has also requested the human rights activists to take initiatives to bring the Maoists to talks. “I am prepared to exhibit maximum flexibility to resolve the problem through negotiations,” he said.

Deuba is the same person who had come to power in 2001 with the promise of resolving Maoist problem peacefully. His government had held the first ever peace talks with the Maoists the same year. However, the talks broke down in November 2001 after the Maoists stuck to their demand for elections of constituent assembly, which the government rejected. The next year King Gyanendra sacked the elected government of Deuba in October 2002 complicating the country’s problem further by triggering differences among constitutional forces. Under pressure from the agitation by the political parties, he re-appointed Deuba on June 2, 2004.

Though his government had earlier rejected the Maoist demand for constituent assembly outright, Deuba’s party Nepali Congress (Democratic), subsequently, decided that in case of national consensus, they are prepared to go for the constituent assembly as well.

The Nepali Congress (Democratic) and its likely ally Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) – which is poised to join Deuba government have already declared – through their Common Minimum Program (CMP) – that they would be prepared to go up to the constituent assembly if there is a national consensus to end the conflict.

“My twin objective is to restore peace (through talks) and hold polls,” declared Deuba. “It was I who had brought them (Maoists) for talks in the past and I am confident I can call them again.”

Rural areas : Under threat

Besides, the increasing likelihood of another major political party Communist Party of Nepal - Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) joining Deuba government based on Common Minimum Program (CMP) will also improve the chances for peace talks, according to analysts.

The CPN-UML has said that it will try and resolve the Maoist problem through dialogue and is prepared to meet their demands of holding roundtable conference, form interim government and even go for the election of constituent assembly to draft new constitution. “Our only condition is that the new constitution should safeguard the achievements of the present constitution, which was drafted in response to Popular Movement of 1990 that restored democracy in the country,” said Bharat Mohan Adhikary, a standing committee member of the UML and one of the members of the committee that drafted the present constitution. The major pillars of the current constitution include multiparty democracy, constitutional monarchy and sovereignty of the people.

On their part, the Maoist leaders have also not ruled out dialogue with this government. “The main thing is that the dialogue should not be held just for the sake of holding it – it should be aimed at progressive restructuring of state-power. We are not willing to hold dialogue just for the sake of it. However, if there is a credible effort for negotiation for achieving progressive restructuring of state-power, we are always ready,” said Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, the number two in the Maoist party, in an interview published in June/July issue of Mulyankan monthly magazine.

Amid these developments observers and analysts have predicted that the country could enter into another round of peaceful negotiations soon. But none of them are willing to bet that the negotiation this time will be fruitful for the long-term solution of the conflict.

“Though there are possibilities of talks, I do not think they will be effective. Still there is no clarity among constitutional forces including the King and the political parties on how to deal with the Maoists,” said Dr. Bishnu Raj Upreti, a conflict management expert and director of Friends for Peace (FFP) – an NGO working in the area on conflict resolution.

Human rights activist and one of the facilitators of the previous talks Padma Ratna Tuladhar believes that the next negotiation can end the conflict ‘if both sides are honest’.

“There is no reason why the negotiation cannot work. The demand for constituent assembly made by the Maoists is not a demand for splitting the country. Nobody needs to fear that,” Tuladhar said.

Dr. Karna Bahadur Thapa, retired major of RNA and a military expert, believes that the two sides need to do adequate homework before sitting for talks. “Both sides need to sit for talks with big hearts and willing for give and take,” he said, adding. “Otherwise, there will be a protracted war, neither the state will win nor the Maoists.”

Maoists had started their bloody insurgency in February 1996 with the intention of establishing republic. However, during their first talks with the Deuba government in 2001, the Maoists abandoned their demand for republic and instead put forth the demand for the elections to constituent assembly claiming that they want the people to decide on what kind of constitution they want for their country.

They deserted the peace talks in November 2001 by launching ferocious attacks against military installations, which drew the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) into the conflict and forced the government to impose State of Emergency. In January 2003, they came for peace talks for the second time. However, they again withdrew in August 2003 after three rounds of talks charging that the government was unwilling to concede to their demand for constituent assembly.

In the last nine years, more than 10,000 people have already lost their lives due to conflict. The economy of the country has been derailed and social harmony disturbed. Blockades and strikes, killing and abduction, as well as other forms of human rights violations have skyrocketed leading the London-based Amnesty International (AI) to put Nepal in the category of countries with ‘grave human rights crisis situation.’

Major political parties are still wary about the Maoists’ demand for constituent assembly. “I believe that going for constituent assembly without knowing what good it does for the country will be suicidal to us,” said Girija Prasad Koirala, former prime minister and president of Nepali Congress (NC). Most of the parties have started to say that they are willing to go for the constituent assembly but only after guaranteeing the major achievements of the current constitution. “We cannot put fundamental rights guaranteed by this constitution at stake,” said a senior leader of Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP), another major parliamentary party. The Maoists, on the other hand, say the constituent assembly should be unconditional.

Meanwhile, the manner in which the current government diffused the indefinite strike imposed by the pro-Maoist student organization in educational institutions has also heightened the likelihood of dialogue. The government has withdrawn the terrorist tag from the organization.

The decision to withdraw the terrorist tag came at a time when the leaders of the organization were publicly hinting that it could open the door for talks with the Maoists.

The call for negotiation is gaining momentum not only within the country but also from outside. The governments of India, Britain, European Union countries and the United States have already urged the government and the Maoists to resolve the conflict through peaceful negotiations. The United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan has even offered his good offices to find a peaceful way out. His senior political adviser Samuel Tamrat visited Kathmandu a week ago to reiterate UN’s offer to Nepal government. While the Maoists have said they are ready for UN mediation, the government is yet to make a clear stand on this. Observers agree that the next few months could be crucial in determining the course this Himalayan Kingdom will take.