Opinion (Spotlight Weekly)

Biratnagar Could Be Devastated: Sun-Kosi Project A Shield

By Dr. AB Thapa

In all probability the imminent danger of the Kosi floods to be triggered off by the sudden change of its course is too great. Tens of thousands of people in Biratnagar area might be killed and many times more people could be rendered homeless. People in far greater number would be affected in north-east Bihar also. Given the great urgency to resolve this problem, the quick implementation of the Sun-Kosi Storage Dam Project now identified as the only solution that could provide effective shield from the threat of the Kosi floods for about next 40 to 50 years should be at the very top on the list of our priorities. By that time we would be able to complete with ease the detailed study and the construction of the mammoth Kosi Dam Project which might have a dam perhaps the highest in the world.

In course of the discussions to finalize the 1997 Kosi Study Agreement, the leader of the Indian team, Chairman, Central Water Commission of the Govt. of India, had expressed off the record that from now on they are fully convinced of the fact that the biggest benefit to accrue from the Kosi development would be the flood control Until that time the Indian Government was seen to be drifting away from the facts that it is absolutely indispensable to provide storage dams in the basin to prevent the Kosi flood disaster. The Indian Government was saying that the Kosi flood control problem has already been resolved after the completion of the construction of embankments on both sides of the Kosi River. . So right at the outset of the meeting held in Kathmandu to finalize the Kosi Study Agreement, I had decided to give a brief presentation on Kosi flood problems. The presentation was very helpful in explaining our viewpoint on Kosi development. Similarly I succeeded in convincing them to agree on our proposal to conduct a detailed study of the Kosi Navigation Canal entirely based on my personal study. Needless to explain that for landlocked Nepal the Kosi Navigation Canal could be seen as a major landmark in rapid expansion of our country’s trade and industries.

Extended Role of Sun-Kosi Project

The Sunkosi development has emerged as the most important project . This project has become indispensable for the safety of life and property of millions in our region. Luckily for us, it is also the most important project for our country to raise agricultural production and generate cheap electricity. This project could provide an excellent opportunity for swift growth of our country's beleaguered economy. Moreover, we might be able to implement this project on our own without excessively increasing the present level of foreign assistance to our country. Unfortunately, virtually all of us including the donors actively engaged in Nepal's water resources development are unaware of it. Such lack of awareness of our country's water resources development problems could undoubtedly be very harmful. Some donors providing generous assistance in Nepal's water resources development are even being misled. Some of their assistance is being misused to preclude the viability of the Sunkosi and Kosi dam projects which had already been identified to be indispensable to save the life and property of millions. Thus the donors' understanding of the Sunkosi Project is very important. Only the combined efforts of all stakeholders including the donors can help to prevent one of the biggest water induced disaster threatening our region..

Threat to Sunkosi Project

In our country, policy makers are often completely unaware of technical matters. It comes as no surprise that very recently the World Bank loan money was used to conduct through a foreign consulting firm the feasibility study of the Dudhkosi Dam Project. That project would have precluded a viable Kosi dam project and would have in long run significantly reduced the scope of the Sunkosi Project also. After the completion of the feasibility study even bids were called to award this project to any of the private developers. All these highly embarrassing things happened even after the 1997 Kosi Study Agreement between Nepal and India that had paved the way to come to a general consensus that the Sunkosi and the Kosi dam projects are indispensable for the safety of millions of peoples in our region.

Far Greater Irrigation Benefits to Bihar

We have good reason to count on India to provide us every possible assistance if they are convinced that the irrigation benefits to be accrued to Bihar for free from the use of the water diverted from the Sun-Kosi reservoir would be even greater than such benefits to Nepal. The feasibility study of the Karnali (Chisapani ) High Dam project carried out under the aegis of the World Bank provides a great deal of very valuable information on irrigation planning. They can be applied for planning irrigation from the Sun-Kosi Dam project. It can be said based on the Karnali feasibility study that India would be getting for free as return flow about 65% of the water diverted from the Sun-Kosi reservoir for irrigation in Nepal's Eastern Terai. Only about 35% of the diverted flow would be effectively used for irrigation in Nepal. Thus about 65% would return via surface and groundwater. Of the 65% returning, 15% could enter into deep subsurface aquifer, leaving 50% for return as surface water and shallow groundwater. The return flow from the Nepal Terai would drain back into innumerable small streams flowing from our country into India. They can easily be tapped in the Indian territory for irrigation. The canals provided to divert such surface return flow for irrigation could also be used to deliver underground return flow. It would be necessary to provide tube wells for abstracting such underground water.

During winter season the ambient temperature is too low in our Terai as well as in North Bihar for the cultivation of crops like the paddy that requires application of maximum amount of water for irrigation. Usually crops like the wheat are grown that are less susceptible to low temperature. In case of wheat the water requirement is less than half of the paddy. The water diverted into Terai from the Sun-Kosi reservoir during winter season for the generation of electricity would thus be far in excess of our need for irrigation in Eastern Terai, and, as a result, such excess water would be freely available in Northern Bihar for bringing vast area of lands under irrigated agriculture.

There can be a great deal of variations in cropping patterns adopted by the farmers in Nepal Terai and Bihar. It is often due to considerable differences in meteorological conditions. As a result, even for the same type of crops the maximum stress period for irrigation could advance ahead or go behind within a certain time range. The spreading of the peak water requirement for irrigation over a longer period would certainly help to increase the area of lands going to be irrigated in North-Bihar by the surplus Sun-Kosi water flowing out from Nepal across the border into India..

Cheap Electricity

The Sunkosi dam would anyway be needed for the flood control, and similarly the diversion tunnel to deliver Sunkosi water for irrigation in Terai. There can hardly be any other substitutes for them. Under such circumstances about 4 ( four ) billion units (Kwh) of firm electric energy could be generated at a relatively small additional investment. Such generation cost of electricity could be only about one US Cent per unit. The generation of cheap power would have extremely favorable impact on Nepal's ailing industries

The Sun-Kosi Dam

The FAO had provided Nepal technical and financial assistance to conduct the study of the Sun-Kosi dam project for the agricultural development in the Terai Plain that had three main functions. They were capital formation needed for social investment through the increased income of farmers, sufficient food supply for the whole country, and increased employment in the Terai Plains. The Government of India had also investigated the Sun-Kosi dam site in 1940s. At that time India was exploring the possibility of building the Sun-Kosi dam primarily for controlling the Kosi River floods. The Indian survey team had favored Kurule dam site on the Sun-Kosi River because it appeared geologically sound and allowed to have a big storage reservoir that extended in Dudh-Kosi and Sun-Kosi valleys. In all subsequent studies that followed thereafter, the location for the dam at Kurule has remained unchanged. The Kurule is the site for the Sun-Kosi dam proposed in the FAO supported study also.

The Master Plan study of the Kosi River water resources was made in 1985 by JICA ( Japan Government Agency) team. The Sun-Kosi River diversion for irrigating lands in the Eastern Terai had been identified as one of the top priority projects in the Master Plan study. That study too had adopted the Kurule as the appropriate location for the dam across the Sun-Kosi River to divert it into the Kamla River.

In Conclusion

It is very clear that the Sun-Kosi dam project should come ahead of the Kosi project and sooner the Sun-Kosi project is completed the better it would be for millions of peoples in India and Nepal. The peoples of Nepal and India who have already sensed the danger of future Kosi floods would be very grateful if the Government of Nepal decided to launch immediately the plan to undertake the construction of the Sun-Kosi Dam Project. Such move could be made, without waiting for the completion of the detailed feasibility report, primarily based on a swiftly prepared interim report. Such interim report updated from time to time as the feasibility study progresses could be used for preliminary discussions with the donor agencies, buyers of electricity and other concerned agencies.

(Dr. Thapa writes on water resources)