National 6 (Spotlight Weekly)

Rescue Disorder

Huge casualties due to water-induced calamities could be averted with some improvement in the flood forecasting system

By THAKUR AMGAI

"Forecasting is the best way of disaster mitigation, " said Keshav Sharma, chief of the Flood Forecast Division (FFD) at the Department of Hydrology and Metrology (DoHM). Flood is one such disaster, which claims hundreds of lives every year in Nepal. Sharma further claims that majority of lives, if not all, could be saved from untimely deaths, if the flood is predicted timely and the information disseminated properly to the public.

This year alone, since the advent of the monsoon, and torrential rains in the first and the second week of July, scores of people have lost their lives and tens of thousands rendered homeless. "Final report have not yet arrived from the districts and some are still coming," said Durga Raj Sharma of the Natural Disaster Section of the Home Ministry. The whopping loss of property and livestock can only be estimated. "The loss of property including livestock is yet to be assessed," said Sharma.

Then, what is stopping the authorities from forecasting the flood and saving hundreds of lives? Resources or the determination? It is both. "With the present system of data collection and communication, we cannot forecast flood," says Sharma of FFD. According to the present system, data is collected once daily from 20 hydrological and 23 meteorological stations across the country through traditional wireless sets. "If flood forecasting is to be made efficient there should be a system of collecting the data every hour and the stations should be equipped with modern communication sets," said Sharma. In addition the central office needs more manpower and added infrastructure. There are only four permanent staffs and a temporary one at the FDD.

Most of the rivers from Nepal flow south via Bihar and Uttar Pradesh of India to Bangladesh. It is these parts that are most affected by the heavy rainfalls in Nepal. FFD was established with the Indian support and the division sends data collected from local stations to the authorities of Bihar, UP and Bangladesh.

Given the life and property damaged, it is prudent for the government to invest on efficient flood forecasting, opines Sharma. "Flood forecasting and disaster mitigation is feasible in a topography like that of Nepal, where there is a variation in elevation and flash floods occur." Floods that arise in about six hours or less are called flash floods. The floodwater recedes away faster in such cases.

Rivers of Nepal take from 12 hours to up to 45 hours to reach the terai plains from their head points. "If there is efficient mechanism, we get time to forecast the flood and disseminate the information to the public in time," added Sharma. With more and more local F.M. radio stations spreading across the country, and audio towers being used as means of raising awareness in many villages of Terai, communication, too, is not going to be very difficult.

However, although the monsoon has been active in the eastern and central part of the country, the monsoon has not been very active in the western parts. The far western district of Dadeldhura has witnessed only 41.5 per cent of the normal rainfall of July for the area. "Only Nepalgunj and Surkhet of the western region have received normal rainfall for the month of July," informed Mandira Rajbahak, senior meteorologist at the Climate Division of DoHM. According to Rajbahak, the rainfall in the west during that period averaged only 60-65 mm, while Simara in the Central Terai had received 1200 mm of precipitation.

Rally Supporting Maoists

For the first time in the last few years, a group of Maoist sympathizers held rally outside Nepal. Interestingly, the rally was held not in Ireland or England or the Mao's birth land in China but it was organized in Patna - the capital of the state of Bihar in India where Nepalese Maoists with the support from the Indian Maoists looted some weapons a few weeks back - the land of Mahatma Gandhi, a preacher of peace and non-violence.

According to the Times of India Patna Publication on July 26, Members of the Nepalese People's Right Protection Committee (NPRPC), India on Sunday (July 25) took out a rally in protest against monarchy in Nepal and for restoration of democracy in the Himalayan Kingdom.

The rally started from Gandhi Maidan and after parading through the main thoroughfares of the town reached Hardinge Park where it turned into a public meeting which was addressed by NPRPC chief, Laxman Pant, Janvadi Morcha Nepal (JMN) chief Ramraja Prasad Singh, Seema Shrestha, CPI ML leader, Vidyanand Vikal, PUCL Bihar representative, Suresh Bhatt and PUCL UP nominee, Balwant Yadav.

Pant in his speech expressed his serious concern over the arrest of supporters of Nepalese Democratic movement in India and leaders of organizations fighting for the restoration of democracy in Nepal, which also includes arrest of Nepalese Maoist leader, C P Gujrail, Mohan Vaidya and Narayan Vikram Pradhan.

JMN chief, Singh in his speech on the occasion said that democratic forces of Nepal and India should stand together to check entry of US Imperialism in Asia via Nepal.

All the speakers demanded to make public what transpired in the talks between the foreign minister Natwar Singh of India and King Gyanendra of Nepal.