Opinion (Spotlight Weekly)

Ronast National Conference And Kosi

By Dr. AB Thapa

It has been already announced that very soon Royal Nepal Academy of Science and Technology ( RONAST) is going to organize a National Conference to discuss science and technology related burning problems that concern our country. At present the Kosi problems pose enormously big challenge for our whole region in general and Nepal in particular. The Kosi problems can be subdivided into two major components – threat and development opportunities. As for the threat, in one big sweep of the Kosi, tens of thousands of our countrymen could be killed and many times more made homeless if our country remained unconcerned about the Kosi problems much longer. On the contrary, our country would be blessed with fabulous opportunities for the national development and thus find itself on the fast track to progress and prosperity if various institutions including the RONAST worked together to tackle the Kosi problems in the best interest of our country. It need not be explained that science and technology involving complicated Research & Development would have to be applied to the greatest extent in resolution of the Kosi development problems. In 1997 Water Energy Commission (WECS) virtually without reasonable access to outside scientific information succeeded in convincing India to agree on Nepalese version of the Kosi development perspectives and accordingly the bilateral study agreement has been signed. The most interesting part of the agreement is going to be a navigation canal right from Chatra to the Ganges to develop inland waterway linking Nepal with the seaport on a par with the Rhine and other waterways in Europe and North America. It is hoped that the National Conference organized by the RONAST would come up with good recommendations on environment, irrigated agriculture, energy, water transportation related science and technology problems of the Kosi.

Role of the RONAST

All those involved in the socio-economic studies of Nepal are always saying that water resources is so far the only known biggest resource of our country that could amply support our efforts to speed up the development of our country. Finding appropriate solution to various science and technological related problems is the biggest hurdle in development of our water resources in the best interest of Nepal. At present Nepal is involved in the study of water resources projects that are among the largest in the world, as a result, we are facing enormously big S&T related problems in course of conducting the studies of those projects. Many of us might not be aware that we are now spending very big sum of money to carry out R&D in resolving the S&T related water resources problems. The RONAST is the highest body in Nepal which was established to guide the S&T studies. Such an important institution, like the RONAST, must not be content to be innocent bystander in development of our water resources because proper resolution of water resources related S&T problems can be a big challenge. Instead of our country being benefited from the exploitation of our water resources, even the slightest mistake in solving the S&T related water resources problems could put the lives of so many at great risk. Very few of us might be remembering that the Kulekhani No. 1 Dam, the only large storage dam in Nepal, was about to collapse soon after the completion of its construction due to geological problems. Government was cautioned ( in an article published in the RISING NEPAL) well ahead of the commencement of the dam construction that the geology of the dam site could be very weak. Such unfortunate things happened because scrupulous attention was not paid in conducting the geotechnical studies. All are hoping that in future the RONAST would be leading the country in coordinating the S&T related water resources development activities of Nepal.

Origin of Kosi Problems

The Kosi river known as the river of sorrow of the Bihar shifted from east to west over 12O km in the last 200 years. In the past about 8000 sq. km. of lands have been laid waste as a result of the sand deposit. In course of shifting, many towns and villages were wiped out, and heavy losses of property, cattle, and human life were inflicted. Fortunately the embankments built few decades ago temporarily helped to check the lateral shifting of the Kosi. But at present the detention basin upstream of the barrage at Hanumannagar is almost full of sediments. Soon the embankments would be ineffective to control the Kosi floods.

The Kosi river is now on the verge of shifting to the east far away from its present course. The peoples of Nepal and India are heading for a natural disaster of an unprecedented scale. But hardly anyone in Nepal appears to be concerned because nobody has yet realized the extent of the Kosi danger.

All the past and present studies and the very recent observations indicate that the Kosi is quickly turning into a hanging river and we are heading for an unprecedented flood disaster. Such flood disaster would not be just one time event. Like the Yellow river floods disaster in China in the past, the ferocious floods of the Kosi would also be frequently hitting the North Bihar and Eastern Nepal wiping out towns and villages, and laying vast area of lands bare with sand deposits. In a similar type of China's Yellow river's latest flooding in 1938 the number of persons killed alone is reported to be about half a million. After this flooding big storage dams were built to control the Yellow river floods. The river is now completely regulated. There are no more flood damages. It is stated in CHINA DAILY (October 16, 1998) that the Yellow river dams have helped to save flood damages as of now of about US $ 50 billions.

Solution to Flood Problem

Provision of dams in the drainage area with very big storage volume is the only lasting solution to the Kosi flood problem. It is the opinion of the renowned experts and scientists involved on the Kosi study in the past. We can draw such lesson from the past experience of China also. It can be concluded that there are not any substitutes for the large storage dams to control the Kosi floods. The storage dams should be provided in time. Unfortunately some peoples in Nepal and India have misgivings about the Kosi dams. Such misgivings are unfounded and they are often the result of present global disenchantment with the high dams particularly for the generation of hydroelectricity. In case of the Kosi dams this type of notion is completely misplaced. The life and property of too many peoples in Nepal and India would be at great risk if the Kosi dams are not built in time. Those who have in their mind other ideas should come forward and offer their own solution to resolve the Kosi flood problem.

What Nepal Will Gain.

The Sun-Kosi High Dam Project would have to be built first because the Kosi High Dam and the Sun-Kosi High Dam would be mutually exclusive if the Kosi High Dam is built first. Moreover, it should be built as soon as possible to preclude the constantly growing threat from the Kosi floods It is not a very big project by comparison with the Kosi High Dam Project. Nepal alone could implement this project under the financial and technical assistance of India and other donor countries.

The study to implement the Kosi High Dam Project is tied up with the provision of a 165 km long navigation canal out of it 120 km stretch would be in the Indian territory. The Kosi navigation canal would directly link Nepal through the Ganges, Bhagirathi and Hooghly with the Calcutta seaport. It could thus be possible to develop waterway providing direct seaport outlet for our landlocked country on a par with the waterways in Europe and North America.

Nepal could implement by itself the dam and the hydropower component of the Kosi High Dam Project under the technical and financial assistance of India and other donor agencies. Nepal could even follow the model of the Columbia River Treaty signed between the USA and Canada that provided financial resources to Canada to implement the Columbia River projects by receiving the money in advance from the sale of electricity to the USA covering certain fixed period. According to one of the estimates presented to a meeting held in WECS, Nepal could expect to earn per year about US$ 0.75 billion immediately after the completion of the project and about US$ 1.5 billion after repayment of loan within a period of about 12 years at present price level.

(Dr. Thapa writes on water resources)