National 2 (Spotlight Weekly)

Opposite Winds

Prospects for peace talks appear dim given the sharp escalation in the intensity of violence

By SANJAYA DHAKAL

Road blockade : Disrupting normal life

Just as the government’s peace committee members were talking about the ‘fresh initiatives’ to invite the Maoists for talks, the four agitating political parties have unveiled a series of protest program – an indication of further political turmoil in the days ahead.

Despite pressure from every quarter to hold peace talks, Nepal continues to be embroiled in terrible uncertainty and even deterioration of violence. Barring Maldives and to some extent, Bhutan, all other South Asian countries are facing different levels of turmoil. While India has landed in a political controversy after the arrest of a seer, Pakistan’s and Bangladesh’s opposition parties have vowed to launch agitation. The Sri Lankan peace process also seems to be moving nowhere.

The regional disease of turmoil and uncertainty is more pronounced in Nepal at present. Although the High Level Peace Committee (HLPC) members have started talking about fresh initiatives to hold peace talks with the Maoists, their statements sound nothing more than a rhetoric. Likewise, as the Maoists have unambiguously indicated their desire to talk directly with the ‘place where the real authority lies,’ the chances of peace talks materializing anytime soon has dissipated for the time being.

Immediately after the festival season ended, Nepalese were greeted with volleys of violent activities spread across the country.

Coming amid the fever-pitched demands for holding the peace talks from every quarter, the latest intensification of violence suggest that the Maoists are not yet ready to sit for talks.

Desperate to prove the utility of its existence, the government is gradually shifting gears and is now talking about holding general elections.

“After I was appointed the Prime Minister, I have already appealed twice to the Maoists to come for talks. Now I am going to appeal to them for the third and final time. If they do not accept, the government will have to go for elections to give continuity to the democratic process,” said Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba last week. Other ministers including the Home Minister Purna Bahadur Khadka, too, have started raising the tempo for polls despite the strong pro-peace talks position taken by another ruling ally Unified Marxist Leninist (UML).

The Maoists who are intent on driving the wedge among the legitimate political forces have shrewdly made use of the situation by declaring that they would not allow any elections to be held except that for the constituent assembly.

Maoist spokesperson Krishna Bahadur Mahara has trashed the talks of polls. “Parliamentary elections would not address us. If at all election is to take place, it should be for the constituent assembly,” Mahara told BBC Nepali Service last week.

He also rejected the possibility of holding dialogue with the present government but stopped sort of ruling the talks out completely. “We are also aware about the people’s aspirations for negotiated settlement. But we want to sit in a negotiation that is going to be result-oriented. Past experiences have shown that holding dialogues with governments that do not have full authority does not bear fruit,” said Mahara.

In what appears to be yet another ploy to divide the political forces, the Maoists have started murmuring that they would hold talks directly with the King. “We have not said that we will only talk with the King. What we meant is that we want to talk with the real power center wherever that may lie. Whether you accept or not, at present, King wields the real authority,” Mahara said.

“I see no possibility of holding peace talks in the near future,” said Bishnu Raj Upreti, president of Friends for Peace and a conflict management expert. “Both the sides appear aggressive. The government is talking about peace talks only as rhetoric because they cannot afford to be seen as opposing talks,” he added.

Conflict experts and analysts concur that none of the warring side is convinced about the urgency of holding the peace talks as yet.

Of late, signs of the internal conflict slipping into a dangerous area have started to emerge. In his interview, Mahara has said that they would need to fight the ‘Indian expansionist forces.’ Accusing India of plotting to bring in all smaller countries of the region including Nepal into its security umbrella, Mahara, said, “We know that without fighting the Indian expansionism, our people’s war will not be complete.”

Mahara’s statement assumes a meaningful dimension as it comes amid reports that the Maoists are building bunkers and tunnels to resist air strikes. Interestingly, a few weeks ago, chief of the Indian Air Force Krishnaswami had made a statement in New Delhi claiming that Nepalese Maoists were posing a real threat to India’s internal security.

Pointing out that the Marxist-Maoist movement had the potential to threaten India's internal security vertically down from Nepal to Andhra Pradesh, the Air Chief said there was a need to reorient, equip and train to fight terrorism in all three planes - land, sea and air (November 12, Nepalnews.com).