Cover Story (Spotlight Weekly)

Untying The Knots

Amid the appeals and counter-appeals by the two warring sides, the peace talks, however, still remains elusive. Even as conflict experts and peace activists claim that the negotiation may be in the offing, they agree that the process remains complicated given the political and other ground realities. How much the internal and external pressure for the peace talks will work is still to be measured. Past experiences have shown that peace talks could be brought to fruition whenever the efforts were made beneath the surface and without much public ado. Doubt over the peace talks appeared as this time, however, every move made by the government as well as the Maoists over the issue of much-touted third round of peace negotiations is under the intense media glare and public spotlight

By SANJAYA DHAKAL

Political parties protesting regression : How to reach consensus?

When on January 31, 2003 the government and the Maoists announced mutual ceasefire paving the way for the second round of peace talks, the news took everyone by surprise. Except some hints in the newspapers two days before, there were not any telltale signs of ceasefire.

Similarly, in August 2001, then Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba declared unilateral ceasefire even before he took the oath of his office – a move, which was quickly responded by the Maoists, too.

Given such past examples, it is hard to say that the present brouhaha over the third peace negotiations would contribute to its materialization.

One thing, however, is clear. After the visit by Prime Minister Deuba to India last week and the admission by Indian officials that the Maoists pose ‘a shared security threat,’ the events in Kathmandu have assumed a renewed pace.

The talks about the negotiation gained momentum after Maoist chairman Prachanda came up with a set of questions for the government. Prime Minister Deuba has said he is studying the Maoist statement and would give replies soon.

Questions And Answers

On September 24, Prachanda released a statement as a response to the government’s call for negotiations. In the statement, Prachanda clarified that the Maoists are ready for negotiations if the current government is serious about creating conducive environment.

Arms confiscated from the Maoists : Tools of violence

He also raised six questions warning that they would sit for talks only if the government gives satisfactory answers to them. Among his questions include whether the government is able to restore the pre-October 4, 2002, situation; whether it is able to create a conducive environment, taking all parliamentary forces into confidence, going against the interests of the Palace and military generals; whether it is committed to making the people sovereign through an election to the constituent assembly; whether it is willing to ‘involve’ the UN or other international rights organizations in the talks instead of begging military assistance from India; whether it could prove through an authentic example that the Royal Nepalese Army is under its control; and whether it could take actions against the culprits of the murder of people like UML leader Hem Narayan Yadav in the past.

Prachanda’s questions followed the formal decision by the cabinet to call the Maoists for talks, which, in turn, followed the decision by the High Level Peace Committee (HLPC) to move in that direction.

According to government spokesperson and Information Minister Dr. Mohamad Mohsin, the formal response of the government to Prachanda’s queries would be communicates (to the Maoists) after the meeting of the HLPC – which is headed by the PM and which counts Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal, Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) president Pashupati Shumshere Rana, Nepal Sadbhavana Party (NSP) president Badri Prasad Mandal and minister Dr. Mohsin as its members.

Positive Outlook

The leaders across the political spectrum have said that the recent statement by Maoist chairman Prachanda has opened the door for holding negotiations. “The environment for talks is gradually getting created,” said Dr. Minendra Rijal, spokesperson of the ruling Nepali Congress (Democratic).

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Ram Chandra Poudel, senior leader of the Nepali Congress (NC), said that Prachanda’s statement has further improved the atmosphere for the dialogue. Lila Mani Pokharel, leader of the People’s Front (PF), said that the questions put forth by Prachanda were all genuine. “However, I do not think this government can give the answers,” he added. The NC, PF and two other political parties are still in the streets protesting what they call as regression since the October 4, 2002 steps by the King.

Meanwhile, Krishna Bahadur Mahara, spokesperson of the Maoists, has stated that the Maoists would sit for talks if the government gives satisfactory and clear answers to its questions. He hinted that among the six questions, the one regarding the constituent assembly is the most significant.

Even conflict experts have said that the possibilities of talks have increased with the latest development. “The Maoist questions (and their answers) will help settle many of the unsettled issues,” said Dr. Bishnu Raj Upreti, a conflict expert and president of Friends for Peace (FFP).

“The government, too, can take advantage of these questions and utilize them to make its case with the King. This can help clear the position of the military too,” Dr. Upreti added. He said that the most important aspect of the questions were the clarity with which the Maoists have come out with their views on political parties. “By asking to take political parties into confidence, the Maoists have indicated that they no longer wish to set them aside – which is good for country’s democracy,” he said.

However, since the major constitutional forces still remain at loggerheads with half of the parliamentary parties still in the streets, it is easier said than done to come up with consensus viewpoint regarding the resolution of the Maoist insurgency.

India’s Role

As conflict expert Dr. Upreti says, the changed attitude of India could have played a key role in creating suitable environment for peace talks at present. “I believe that the Maoists could be sincerely wishing to take advantage of this opportunity,” he said.

The recently completed visit to India by PM Deuba did succeed to convince the Indian officialdom regarding the threat posed by the Maoists in Nepal. “I will take steps for holding talks. If the Maoists do not accept it, we will use the force,” a confident-looking Deuba told the reporters immediately upon his arrival from New Delhi where he also succeeded to get further military assistance.

The rapidly unfurling events also caught the Maoists by surprise. They even came up with uncharacteristically acerbic statement against Indian ‘ruling elite’ for hobnobbing with Nepalese rulers against the interest of Nepalese people.

Coinciding with these developments were the increased Maoist activities along Indo-Nepal border. A bullet fired by the Maoists injured an Indian girl in Jhulaghat of Uttaranchal State. Mysterious posters threatening physical action against the Indian leaders if they provided military assistance to Nepal sprouted in some places of the same state. And then there was an increased tempo in allegations from some quarters that the Nepalese Maoists were providing training to some Bhutanese refugees as well as dreaded Indian extremist groups ULFA. These events could be sinister indicators of things to come.

Lack Of Unified Approach

The present government led by PM Deuba had assumed its office on two planks – holding the peace talks and holding the elections. More than three months after its appointment, the government is still to boast of any concrete achievement towards attaining any of the two goals.

Being a government of four different political parties, the diversity of opinion among the ruling parties can be considered normal. However, in what is seen as a weakness of the government, different ministers toe different lines on major issues. While some ministers including the Prime Minister favor secret talks, others want it to be held in a ‘transparent’ manner. Likewise, the 'maximum flexibility and readiness to accept constituent assembly', too, are unresolved issues. Recently, Deputy Prime Minister Bharat Mohan Adhikary said that the government has already replied to the Prachanda’s questions even as other ministers said that they were studying it.

“Such differences in opinion among the ministers themselves do not give good message. It exposes confusion and inconsistency on their part,” said an expert on conflict management.

“The state is still not clear on issues like constituent assembly, which can derail the talks anytime even if they materialize,” said Shyam Shrestha, editor of Mulyankan monthly and a leftist thinker who used to be associated with the Maoists in the past.

UML’s Stakes

The Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) – a partner of the ruling alliance – has the highest stakes in the current peace process. And this fact is clear with the frequent appeals by the party to the government to initiate the peace talks at any cost. Having abandoned the street protests against regression midway, the party is under pressure to prove the reasons for doing so. And, therefore, it desperately needs peace talks to appease its cadres.

The general secretary of the party Madhav Kumar Nepal has already asked the government to give solid replies to the six questions raised by the Maoists. He said that the questions seemed ‘genuinely aimed at clarifying the status of the government.’

Nepal has been huffing and puffing in every public gathering calling for immediate peace talks.

The party central committee recently decided to press the government to announce unilateral ceasefire to create the environment for the peace negotiations. “The party passed the proposal deciding to press the government to withdraw red corner notices and terrorist tag from the Maoists,” said standing committee member Jhal Nath Khanal. The party also concluded in the same breathe, that the Maoist side, too, were equally responsible to create the proper environment.

Pressure For Peace

One of the most significant aspects this time is the high volume of pressure for peace from the public and civil society.

As Shyam Shrestha says – “99.9 percent of the population yearns for peace. Neither the government nor the Maoists can afford to ignore their call.”

Frustrated by worsening security situation, people from all walks of life have started to put pressure for negotiated settlement. “There is an unprecedented public pressure for peace talks. This is why the two sides are being compelled to see reason,” said Dr. Upreti.

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Not only the Nepalese people, but also the international community is urging for peace talks. Indian foreign secretary Shyam Saran recently said that India believed there could be no military solution to the conflict in Nepal - indirectly calling for the two sides to negotiate. Likewise, the governments of the United States, United Kingdom and European Union, too, favor negotiated settlement to the problem.

The pressure for peace is building because of the deteriorating human rights situation, as well. According to the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC), till now 10,264 Nepalese have already lost their lives due to the conflict. It stated that nowadays, on average, 23 people are killed each week. Over 34,303 people have been internally displaced. Among the complaints registered at the commission for 1097 persons ‘disappeared’ by the state, only 124 have been released. Likewise, out of 280 ‘disappeared’ by the Maoists, only 27 have been released.

At a time when the two neighbors of Nepal – India and China – are moving on the path towards economic prosperity, Nepal remains shrouded in conflict. The burgeoning economy of India and China is sure to bring them closer, which can mean untold prosperity to the peoples of this region including Nepal. However, the two Asian giants are yet to bury their differences on many issues, which can complicate the regional stability for some more years to come.

While their neighbors to the south and north taste the fruits of economic prosperity, poor Nepalese are forced to yearn for – to the very least – a Dashain break that would allow them to enjoy their greatest festival in peace. And even that seems to be such a distant dream.