National 2 (Spotlight Weekly)

A Non-Mover?

Despite the rising crescendo of demands for negotiations, there are no clear signs that they will take place in immediate future

By SANJAYA DHAKAL

Even as the demands for peace-talks were reaching a fever-pitch in their intensity, the Maoists exploded a bomb and shot and injured two youths in Kathmandu on Tuesday (October 5) indicating they were not yet willing to negotiate.

Despite the mounting national and international pressure on the Maoists to accept the government’s peace talks offer, there is no ‘cease’ but only ‘fire’ as put by one former minister who closely took part in the second peace-talks between the government and the Maoists.

While on the tactical level, the government is winning the battle by creating a solid media-hype by forming High Level Peace Committee (HLPC), getting the backing from the King, and repeatedly calling for the Maoists to sit for negotiations; it is yet to indicate that it will fulfill any of the Maoist demand including constituent assembly.

In fact, the Home Minister Purna Bahadur Khadka has categorically stated that the government would not compromise on multi party democracy and constitutional monarchy in the peace talks with the Maoists.

The statements from the officials of the friendly countries have also strengthened the government’s position.

Recently, the United States ambassador James F. Moriarty, in an interview he gave to The Kathmandu Post, stated, “I am not sure that the Maoists really have that goal (the preservation of multiparty democracy). Their goal is to achieve power. We should not be naīve that they have given up what they have been doing for the past eight years. It doesn’t really look like they will come to multiparty democracy; may be forced to at some point, but it doesn’t look they are ready yet.”

"You need the majority of the Maoists back into the mainstream. But to get there Maoists have to make serious compromises at the negotiating table," he said. He explained that only the unity among the legitimate political forces, international environment to pressurize the Maoists and realization among the Maoists that they couldn't defeat the Royal Nepalese Army militarily would force the Maoists to make such compromises.

While the government appears to be pressing the Maoists to come for talks on its own terms, the latter seem unsure what they might gain this time.

The Maoists also seem to be losing ground, as far as their response to the offer of peace talks is concerned. The delay in responding to the government answers to Prachanda’s six questions and the mixed signals they are sending regarding the holding of ceasefire reflect their predicament. “They do not want to risk public wrath by outright rejecting the offer for peace talks. But they also fear that if they accept the offer, they could find themselves in what they presume to be a scrupulously laid entrapment,” said a political analyst wishing to remain unnamed.

The government, on the other hand, seems to be firing a salvo of conflicting and confusing statements – apparently aimed carefully at throwing the opponent off-balance. “While various ministers are speaking in various tunes – some call for unilateral ceasefire, some stress on elections and some call for immediate peace talks – there seems to be a unity of purpose in that the government has clearly hinted it would try to compel the Maoists to announce ceasefire and discuss all issues at the table of negotiations only while giving away nothing upfront,” the analyst added.

The Maoists appear concerned about what concessions they could gain this time from a government – which has the participation of major political parties and which seems to have received the backing of the King – when they could not get anything even from weaker governments in the past.

Amid the dilly-dallying over the holding of peace talks, the government has begun to strongly push for polls by the end of April, 2005 if the Maoists choose not to come to negotiation. “If they (Maoists) don’t come for negotiations, we can’t remain without a parliament. We will be compelled to go to the polls,” said Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba (Reuters).

In fact, Dr. Prakash Sharan Mahat, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, further highlighted government’s willingness to go for fresh polls to gain the public legitimacy. “We should go for election and get a fresh mandate. Punjab had only 10% turnout and still an election was held. Later the participation increased. Similarly, we should be ready to do it in phases. Constitutional monarchy is needed in the country, (and the multi-party system). So, election is the way to put the democratic process on track,” he said at a teleconference interview with US-based Nepalese when he visited New York to take part in UN General Assembly recently.

The government, on its part, has been able to cobble together a credible front to push for the peace talks. The High Level Peace Committee (HLPC) members were even granted an audience by King Gyanendra on October 4 after which PM Deuba said, “The King has expressed his total support, cooperation, assurances and encouragement in our efforts to restore peace.”

Amid the speculations and rumors, it is unlikely that the fruitful peace talks could be held anytime soon – whether secretly or out in open. As one former prime minister recently told a group of journalists in an informal conversation, "I don’t see the chances for fruitful talks. Neither side has done any homework on how they would reach an understanding even if peace talks are held."