Water Resources, NGOs And Media

By Dr. AB Thapa

It is quite encouraging that nowadays Nepal’s NGOs and media are taking a great deal of interest on our country’s water resources problems. News of various seminars, meetings being held at different parts of the country are often reported in the media. Needless to say that the NGOs and media would be able to play crucial role in forging the way to develop our water resources in genuine interest of our country. But it is equally true that we would be harming our country’s chance of deriving greatest benefits to our countrymen from the use of our water resources if we start to present our viewpoints on water resources matters not based on true facts and figures.

Recently NGOs were holding debates on Kosi dams. Nobody denies that the submersion problem discussed in such meetings is indeed very important. We should abandon the idea of building high dams if such dams would lead to losses to the nation outweighing the benefits. It would certainly be very harmful if we jump to hasty conclusion in one way or other even without completing some sort of general study of the high dam projects. Kosi dam projects as defined in 1997 study agreement with India have been earmarked not just only to produce electricity. They would provide water to irrigate vast area of lands. Kosi dams would help to develop canal waterway linking Nepal with the seaport, and above all such dams are indispensable to save the life and property of millions by preventing the possibility of the Kosi river shifting to the east far away from its present course.

What A Surprise?

It indeed is an irony that the participants of the recently held Kosi meeting in Sunsari district had concluded that the implementation of the Kosi dam projects would not be in Nepal’s interest. Perhaps they do not yet know that the Sunsari district might have to suffer the heaviest casualty if Kosi dams are not built in time. Almost the entire district might be laid bare with sand deposit and the loss of life and property would be colossal if we failed to prevent the shifting of the Kosi river course in near future. On the contrary if the Kosi dams projects are implemented in the same spirit as stipulated in the 1997 study agreement, Sunsari district would be having inland navigation port directly linked with the seaport. This district could become the hub of Nepal’s industrial development and commerce.

NGOs and media should not remain indifferent to Kosi dam project study. They should keep a watchful eye on Kosi studies jointly conducted by Nepal and India to insure that the scope of the present studies of the Kosi would not be altered to limit the benefits to be accrued to Nepal.

Kosi Threat to Sunsari

Mr. F.A. Shilling Feld, a renowned expert on Kosi study, had made a chilling forecast a long time ago “ The westward movement of the Kosi oscillation (in the past) is slow and is in a series of steps, each of which is attended with damage to property of temporary nature. The eastward movement (in future) of the oscillation will probably be accompanied with great loss of life and property.”

According to the prediction of renowned experts like Sir Claude Inglis the Kosi river is now on the verge of shifting to the east far away from its present course. The peoples of Nepal and India are heading for a natural disaster of an unprecedented scale. Sir Claude and several others experts have already made frightening forecast that the Kosi would abandon its present course immediately after Charta where it debauches into Terai, thereafter it would be heading for the most densely populated areas of Nepal and India.

Kosi is already attacking the eastern banks for last several years. " Kantipur" daily has very recently reported on July 19, 2005 that about 600 meters long spur built on the left bank just after Chatra near Chakraghhati has been washed away at the very location from where according to Sir Claude the Kosi would head to the east abandoning its present course. We are observing such dangerous trends of the Kosi for last several years though in recent years the Kosi flood intensity is quite insignificant.

The Cause of Kosi Floods

Thirty million years ago the sea bottom that was to become the Himalayas began to be pushed up, and this movement is still in progress. The Himalayas continue to rise and so do their peaks including the Mount Everest. It is said that were it not for the strong erosion that simultaneously wears down the entire Himalayan region, the Mount Everest summit would now be nearly 20,000 meters above the sea level. So the Kosi rising in the Himalayas and emptying into the plain at Chatra after traversing the mountain region, brings with her every year an enormous quantity of sediments estimated at 120 million cubic meters along with 52 billion cubic meters of water. The annual volume of the Kosi sediment is about 5 times greater than that of Sutlej at Bhakra and 2 times greater than that of Nile at Aswan.

Various studies done on Kosi so far come to one common conclusion - the Kosi carries enormous load of sediments that it is unable to transport far beyond. The river, therefore, deposits huge quantity of sediments. In this process of building up an inland delta, the river shifted over 120 km from east to the west during the period from 1736 to 1954.

Embankments Would be Ineffective

Embankments built a few decades ago temporarily helped to check the lateral shifting of the Kosi. The detention basin upstream of the Kosi barrage near Hanumannagar in between the embankments is going to be very soon full. After that the embankments would be ineffective to prevent the lateral shifting of the Kosi. It is predicted that the Kosi would again take its 1732 course. The new course of the Kosi is expected to be about 120 km away from its present course. The swing of the Kosi river to the east could be sudden and almost unexpected because nobody yet exactly knows when it is going to happen. The people would be completely taken by surprise. So the loss of life could be very high. In a similar type of 1938 flood incidence of the Yellow River in China the number of people killed alone was about half a million. It does not need to be further explained that such shifting of the Kosi to the east would be the biggest disaster for the whole region. Generally the flood damages are temporary in nature but the Kosi flood damages would be widespread and also permanent in nature. Mr. Shilling Feld . an expert on Kosi, has warned a longtime ago that the eastward movement of the Kosi will be in one big swing accompanied with great loss of life and property.

Solutions to Kosi Flood Problem

Solution to the Kosi floods should be found quickly. Renowned experts and scientists who have studied the Kosi say the provision of dams in the drainage area with very big storage volume is the only lasting solution to this problem. We can draw similar lessons from China's experience.

China had both depended on and dreaded its mighty rivers. It is reported in CHINA DAILY that during the Qing Dynasty (1644 - 1911), control of the Yellow River was thought critical to dynastic stability. So a ministerial post - Governor of Yellow River Affairs - was established. The holder of this post was only second in power to the prime minister. Over the years sedimentation had raised the Yellow River bed by 5 - 10 centimeters a year. The riverbed in the lower reaches was elevated by 3 - 5 meters above the level of surrounding fields. The Yellow River had thus become a "hanging river". Until recently there were on an average two breaches of the dikes every three years, and a major change of river course once a century.

The centuries old China's Yellow river flood problem has been resolved. China built several storage dams to control the Yellow river floods. The Xiaolangdi dam is the latest. This dam on the lower Yellow River 130 km downstream from the existing Sanmenxia project in Henan province was under construction few years back. This project is financed with a World Bank loan of US$ 460 million, plus an IDA credit of US$ 110 million.

The flood control of the Yellow River is regarded as "a remarkable achievement". Keeping the Yellow River at bay has saved the China US$ 50 billion. It would not be wrong to conclude that the flood control benefits to accrue after the implementation of the Kosi dam projects would also be very high.

(Dr. Thapa writes on water resources)