 |
||
|
||
COVER STORY |
|
||
|
||
COVER STORY |
YOUTH POPULATION At a time when developed
countries and some developing countries around the world are facing the problems of aging
population with continual declining in younger population, Nepal continues to enjoy
surplus younger population. With more than 32 percent of population aged between 10- 24,
Nepal’s population composition is going to be overwhelmingly young at least till
another decade. In terms of economically active population, more than half belong to the
age group between 15-59 years. As Nepal has been facing violent insurgency, this is the
group of population which has suffered the most. Nepal's future challenges will be how to
address the multifaceted problems of younger population – who are vulnerable to
infections of deadly HIV/AIDS By KESHAB POUDEL From the main streets of capital city to
rural parts of the country, one of the most visible changes is the composition of the
population. Every seven out of ten pedestrians walking at the main streets of Kathmandu
valley are young. At the school time, this proportion increases. This is true to the rural
areas as well. One can notice younger population outnumbering the older ones everywhere
indicating the bursting population growth.
Desperate and energetic, this group
of population is now entering into Nepalese labor markets with high hopes of prosperity
and better job opportunities. But they get frustrated as soon as they realize the reality
–which is not favorable to them. As the insurgency intensifies, youngsters
are leaving the rural hinterland en masse in search of jobs in the urban areas. This has
increased pressure on the urban infrastructures. From Kathmandu valley to other district
headquarters, young people are desperate to leave the rural areas. According to an
estimate, majority of displaced populations are of young age between 14-25 years. Those
lucky who can afford money have already gone to foreign country while the remaining ones
are living in the urban areas. The unexpected mobility of youths from rural to urban and
urban to foreign countries will definitely create problems. These youths are even more
vulnerable to HIV infections. Although counting young faces seems
good, it is challenging to nurture them guiding through to the right destination in their
lives. The state needs to provide basic education, skills and health facilities to
them. As the country’s whole focus at
present is directed towards the insurgency, the important and longer term issues of
providing better opportunities for youths are ignored by the policy makers. Experts argue
that it is not insurgency but the overgrowing unskilled and illiterate youth who are going
to be major problems for the country in the long run. If the country’s policy makers fail to
read the face of the youths and provide them with information and skill, these brigades of
directionless youths could create long-term political instability and economic burden to
the state. Economic Gain As young population increases, the culture
of consumerism flourishes in the urban areas. From motorbike stores to departmental stores
in the capital, the young are everywhere accelerating the economy.
“These younger generations are
not only helping increase the population growth rate but also giving life to the
country’s economy,” said an economist. From blue-collar employees to porters and
other menial labors, the young populations are accelerating country’s economic
activities. Thanks to the opening up of the labor market in the Gulf and other East Asian
countries, more than 1.1 million Nepalese youths are now working abroad sending back huge
amount of money as remittances. Due to the remittances, the land prices of
urban areas have increased. Likewise, the consumption pattern is changing with demands of
more consumer items opening markets for new products. Whether from foreign country or urban
centers of Nepal, young are feeding their families back home injecting life to the rural
economy. Despite intensification of the Maoist insurgency, the rural economy is surviving
through the remittances. More money the young people make, more they
spend on buying consumer items. In search of jobs, these people are migrating from one
place to another. At a time when a majority of youths from urban areas are migrating to
other parts of the world, rural youths are migrating to the urban areas to tap the
leftover opportunities. “The present population structure will
be there for another two to three decades as Nepal’s young population is at the
reproductive stage,” said Dr. Ramhari Aryal, joint secretary and head of Population
Division at the Ministry of Population and Environment. “Although there is a sign of
decline in fertility- which is going to have long run impact on overall population
structure, it is a long process before we can notice drastic effect on the population
structure.” In terms of demography, overwhelming
younger population will have adverse impact on population management strategy. The
presence of large number young population at reproductive stage will increase the
overall population growth resulting in a large number of new births putting pressures on
scarce resources. Within the next decade, the proportion of
younger population and number of aging population aged over 65 will begin to swell. This
will impose colossal financial burden on a country already struggling to meet its pension
commitments to elderly retired person. Economists, however, argue that
overwhelming youth population is going to be a boon for the country in case of proper
policies and programs. Desperate and energetic this group of population is now moving from
place to place in search of job creating new opportunities and markets. At present more
than 1.1 million Nepalese youth are working abroad supporting Nepal’s economic
development sending huge amount of money as remittances. New Labor Force
The Tenth Plan assumes that annually
more than 200,000 new labor force joins the market increasing the country’s total
labor force. But the country does not have industries and places to employ all of them.
According to the projections, there are 11,191,276 labor forces in the country in
2003/2004. There will be addition of 255,825 more by the end of the year 2004-05. The country will have to face the social
disorder in case large numbers of youths remain unemployed. At a time when the
country’s overall situation is deteriorating and there is few possibility to get the
employment in the domestic market, the foreign employment sector is giving
opportunity to most of them. “The current wave of violence and natural disasters has
exacerbated poverty, unemployment and made it more difficult to ensure that development
opportunities reach those most in need,” writes ILO paper on Poverty Reduction
Strategy. “Unless addressed, the current instability due to the social disorder will
not only make poverty reduction more difficult to achieve, it will also impact adversely
on economic activity and increase the numbers who are poor and out of work.” Trapped in Vicious Circle Of
Violence Life is not full of rosy things for all the
young. The rural folks, who are illiterate and unskilled, are facing most hardships.
Living under the constant threat of being trapping in the conflict, large number of them
have already migrated to urban areas creating deficit of manpower required in the
agriculture sectors - a back bone of national economy – in their native villages. Those who are trapped in insurgency and are
learning the culture of killing and making Improvized Explosive Devices- are going to
become a long-term threat for the country. At any point when there is a ceasefire and
peace, this dejected and desperate group is likely to loom as a threat to the stability of
the country as well as the region. “Of course, young dominated population
structure is good for overall economic development provided proper policies and
programs. Twenty seven percent of the population constitutes 19-29 age groups. These
groups of population help to generate the national economy. According to Census, more than
80 percent live in rural areas. However, if these populations are not handled properly,
they will create more problematic situation, ” said Professor Dr. Bishwambher
Pyakuryal. “It is unfortunate to say that country’s Tenth Plan does not have any
specific targeted program to utilize this population.”
This pool of population is going to
be a challenge as well as opportunity for the country’s overall development. Since
Nepal’s population structure continues to be dominated by the young, Nepal does not
need to worry about future requirement of human resources to accelerate its economic
growth. “The census results show that the age
group of 15-49 years is dramatically increasing at a high rate. If we are able to exploit
this group of population, the country could benefit a lot,” said Pyakuryal. “In
case of misguidance, this very group of population can become a constant threat for
political stability.” Population Structure According to Nepal Population Report 2004,
whether a population (of a country) is young or old, or getting older or younger depends
on the proportion of people at different age groups. In general, a population with more
than 35 percent under the age 15 is considered young and the population with more than 10
percent aged 65 and above considered old. WHO defines adolescents as being in the age
range 10-19 years and youths between15-24 years. If one were to look for the proportionate
share of population in these groups, one will find that those adolescents in Nepal
cover 23.62 percent of the total population. The census of 2001 disclosed that the
population of Nepal is composed primarily of young people and since 1960 it has remained
young. More than 39 percent of population is under 15 years of age. Similarly more than
half of the population is in the age group of 15-59 years. This shows the younger
population replacing the younger ones. “The young population has tremendous
impact on national development. These young people go to job market for jobs in organized
sector or opt for self-employment. Youths are the consumers and they mostly trigger the
economic activities. These people will buy new cars, land, real state and consumable
items. The growing of youth population will help to expand domestic market. They can be
tapped for exporting our goods and developing our agriculture system. Young people
can play important role in all round development of the country,” said Dr. Shankar
Sharma, vice chairman of National Planning Commission (NPC). “We need to provide
vocational trainings to them.” Published by the Ministry of Population and
Development, Nepal Population Report 2004 indicates that approximately one person is
in the working age (15-59) years for every person less than 15 years old and aged 60 years
or more. This age structure of Nepalese population is mainly due to high fertility and
declining mortality in all ages, particularly in younger ages. The present age structure
suggests that a large share of resources have to be spent on basic facilities such as
education, nutrition, and health of young people just to maintain a status quo. Since there is a large number of young
population, there will be no change in the population structure any time soon. Till 2021,
Nepal does not need to worry about the deficit of young population. The country will
continue to have net surplus of young and energetic population. Published by Central Bureau of Statistics
and Ministry of Population and Environment, the Population Projections for Nepal 2001-2021
predicts that the present population structure will remain similar for the next two
decades. According to the population report, 49
percent of the women population is at the reproductive stage and 24.6 percent of total
population is at reproductive stage at present. This reflects the highest number of
younger population – which is at the reproductive stages - in the history of Nepal. “Modern education with western values
has engulfed Nepal’s adolescent and youth population which accounts for almost
one-third of the total population Like in other societies, globalization with advancement
in science and technology, lately information technology has affected Nepali population
that will further speed the momentum of this transition with the increase in number of
educated people, more access to information, along with lack of appropriate employment
opportunities,” states the Nepal Population Report. Fertility is one of the main factors
determining the age structure of the population. The present population structure shows
that the process of fertility transition is very slow and it takes a decade to even notice
a slight change. Adolescents and youths in Nepal lack life
skills to negotiate with their partners and make informed decisions on their reproductive
health. They also have limited knowledge on reproductive rights issues. With the objective of targeting the
most deprived population with limited access to services and information, European
Union/UNFPA is jointly launching Reproductive Health Initiative for Youth in Asia (RHIYA)
program in Nepal. The primary beneficiaries of this program will be the vulnerable
adolescents and young people between 10-24 years of age. Active Population The Labor Force Survey conducted by the
Central Bureau of Statistics in 1999 showed that around 86 percent of the population in
the country aged 15 and over is found to be active. Around 9.5 million people are
estimated to be employed or are currently working. Among the total employed, the
proportion of male and female are equally distributed at 4.7 million each. Among children
aged 5-14 years around 14 percent or 2 million of them were found to be working. The
survey also showed that the largest proportion of the total or 7.2 million work in the
agriculture sector. The second largest workforce can be observed to be in the service
sector with almost 976,000 people. This is followed by industries in the third positions
with 931,000 people. The situation has drastically changed now
as more than 1.1 million workers are now working in foreign countries. According to the
Ministry of Labor and Transport Management, 1.1 million Nepalese went abroad till the end
of July in Gulf, South East Asia and other countries. Unlike rural areas, the problem of
unemployment in urban areas runs 7.4 percent. Across all urban areas, the rate of youth
unemployment is 12 percent. Future of Adolescents The survey conducted by the United Nation
Children’s Fund and UNAID in April 2001 on teenagers in Nepal revealed that an
overwhelming majority or 92 percent of adolescents knew what they wanted to do in the
future. Not surprisingly, the medical services attract more teenagers than any other
field, with 21.6 percent of respondents aiming to become doctors, nurses and pharmacists,
or vets. Jobs in the government, semi-government and non-governmental sectors also
appeared attractive to a good number of young people at 14.6 percent. The education
field appealed to 12.1 percent of respondents, whereas 8.9 percent were interested in
working for industrial and commercial enterprises, as independent contractors, or tourist
guides. Other areas of interest included skilled
labor (7.4 percent) - such as tailoring, masonry, carpentry, driving. Creative works such
as musicians, actors, dancers or writers attracted 5.3 percent. About 5 percent were
interested in becoming engineers or technicians in the computer and construction
industries or in agriculture. Another 4.7 percent hoped to be recruited into the police,
army or other security services. A higher number of teenagers from
marginalized groups or 11.8 percent said they did not now what their carrier goals were.
Four out of five were confident that they would be able to achieve their goal while the
rest felt their own talent, hard work and ability to learn as well as performance in
vocational training or higher education would lead to success. About 12 percent considered
family encouragement and financial support the most important factors in the fulfillment
of their ambitions. Out of those who felt they would not be
able to achieve their career goals, 38 percent attributed the perceived failure to the
lack of education. Another 34 percent attributed it to poverty. More than one third of
Nepali teenagers or 36.5 were worried about their education: afraid of being forced to
leave school, not being able to afford books and stationary, or being denied educational
opportunities. This was the biggest concern for in-school teenagers - 43 percent
across all ethnic groups. Nepal’s dropout rate is about 60 percent among the primary
school students. One in five or 21 percent said they were most worried about their future
careers. A similar number of in-school and out out-of-school teenagers expressed the same
concern. More than one in five teenagers feared most
about their future, which included job uncertainty, lack of income and poverty. Fear of
not finding the job was the greatest fear of the boys (26 percent) and girls (21 percent). In Nepal, the share of elderly persons (60
years and above) was 5 percent in 1952-54, which increased to 5.8 percent in 1991 and 6.5
percent or (1.48 million) in 2001. The elderly population is estimated to double by 2017. In view of such a large number of
economically active population, the country will have adequate human resources to
transform the national economy. Since majority of young population are illiterate,
unskilled and desperate, they could also prove to be a cause of greatest concern if proper
policies are not implemented to take care of this section. "Without Managing The Population, We Cannot Achieve Economic Growth" — Dr. Ram Hari Aryal
Dr. Ram Hari Aryal, a
population expert and joint secretary, heads the Population Division at the Ministry of
Population and Environment. Dr.Aryal, who has a long experience of working in the
adolescent and youth issues spoke to SPOTLIGHT on various problems related to youth.
Excerpts: How do you look at the sector of
adolescent and youth population? One of the main features of Nepalese
population is that it is youth-dominated population. About 32 percent of the population is
below the age of 25. The number of young people is substantial. This is the reason why we
need to start some focused programs. At present, the adolescent population is vulnerable.
According to the redefinitions of World Health Organization, adolescent is regarded as
population aged between 10-19 years. This age group of population alone covers 22 percent
of Nepal's total population. This is very important population for the country's
development. What are the challenges before the
Ministry? The challenge now is how to manage this
population. We are formulating the population perspective plan. One of the main objectives
of this plan is how to include them in multi-dimensional activities. Thanks to decline in
fertility, developed countries are now facing the problems of aging population. Managing
aging population is a major challenge. In Nepal, we have problems of aging as well as
growing young population. Our population above 60-years-old covers 6 percent. This is also
huge in number. What are the specific population
problems of the country? In developed countries, fertility and
infant mortality has drastically declined but they don't have much young population. We
have the opposite problem. This population is potential for growth. In demographic terms,
it is known as a population momentum. Despite launching various programs, we will continue
to have more young population. Since youths are in reproductive stage, population growth
will continue. We need to formulate programs to meet the aspirations of youths providing
necessary things including their reproductive rights. The challenge is to how to bring
them to mainstream. We need to implement programs focusing youths. When does the fertility start to
decline? As in all developed countries, the
fertility rate is in transition in Nepal. Since late 1980s, decline of fertility began.
The first survey conducted in 1976 showed that the fertility rate was about 6. However,
the survey of 2001 revealed that it had declined to 4. This trend is continuing. According
to the population theory, once fertility declines, it does not reverse. Our challenge is
now how fast shall we push this decline. If we push this to replacement level fertility of
2, we will also see the trend of declining average population. We have to work for another
20 years with focused programs to achieve that. Population is related to all the
development activities. What will be the implications on
overall population because of the presence of large number of youths? The young dominated population structures
are also known as population with much potential including the economic development. One
of the aims of our population perspective plan is how to involve the adolescents in
demographic management. We need to flow maximum level of information to them. In the
context of Nepal, we require the involvement of parents on sex education, HIV/AIDS and
other related issues. We don't have parent support in adolescents and youth programs. In
Nepalese context, we are yet to see the participation of parents. How do you see the level of
education among the youth population? We are yet to conduct any study on
education and literacy between adolescents and youth population. Obviously, the level of
education is very low among the adolescent and youth population. So far as reproductive
health is concerned, the awareness is negligible. This is very unfortunate. We need
advocacy programs to teach them. Frankly speaking, we are unable to create demand of the
youth population. It is the responsibility of individual parents, government agencies and
communities to create the demands. The perspective plan draws the conclusion that there
must be demand creation. How can we use the youth
population? We have a large number of youths but the
challenge is how to involve them in mainstream development programs. The on-going Tenth
Plan also has certain provisions to utilize them. We need to manage the population to
achieve the growth rate set by the plan as the plan stressed the need to launch the
youth-focused and mobilized programs. Under the Ministry of Environment and Population, we
have separate section for the youths. We have been launching youth-focused programs in 13
districts. Our aim is to disseminate information regarding what contribution will they
have in the areas of economic development. We have adequate number of youths. If we use
them in national economic development, it will greatly benefit the country. How do you see the growing
migration of youths? Youths are migrating in large numbers to
different parts of the world. Thanks to the growing migration of youths, the country is
receiving a huge amount of remittance at this time of crisis. This is good news. We must
also be able to provide them jobs back in the country. What is the challenge of present
population program? As I have already mentioned to you that
management of youth population is a major challenge. We also have the challenge of
beginning focused programs. Population management is one of the major challenges in terms
of economic development. If we cannot manage the population, the country cannot achieve
the economic growth. It is that simple. |
|| Cover
Story || Apex Court || Impot Of Sugar || Governor's Appointment || Interview || Tourist
Arrival || |
Send your feedback to the
editor: spot@mail.com.np |
