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COVER STORY |
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COVER STORY |
EARTH
QUAKE PREPAREDNESS Nepal has developed certain expertise on
emergency disaster relief program through its experiences of handling series of
small-scale natural disasters. But as experts predict a major earthquake is overdue, how
Nepal's emergency disaster relief operation will function if, God forbid, such disaster
were to hit the beleaguered nation is uncertain. At a time when the countries around the
world are yet to recover from the tragic calamity caused by Tsunami, Nepal is celebrating
national earthquake day on Friday (January 14) in memory of the country's biggest disaster
in living memory when over 8 Richter scale quake had hit the country in 1934 AD killing
thousands. Since Nepal lies in a seismically active zone, the country must prepare its
citizens in order to avert the casualty from the natural phenomenon and if it wants to
avoid cursing its fate in the eventuality of such deaths and destructions By KESHAB POUDEL When a major quake rocked Kathmandu valley
in January 14,1934, then Nepalese prime minister Juddha Sumsher Rana was in a hunting trip
in Kailali, 500 miles far west of capital. Although the quake of magnitude of 8.3 in
Richter scale devastated central Nepal including capital, it took a couple of days for the
information regarding the damage to emerge. The situation is different now as the
information about destruction and damage caused by the recent earthquake and Tsunami
traveled around the world including the capital of Nepal within a matter of hours.
Following the breaking news and video clips of devastation and destruction, a majority of
Nepalese, who are living in the valley, are under the psychological stress regarding the
possible consequences of future earthquake in their vicinity.
Nepalese were shocked when earthquake
devastated Turkey, Bhuj (of India) and Bam (of Iran) in recent times. The destructions
unleashed by Tsunami once again reminded the people of valley- which lies in seismically
active zone - of their vulnerability. "Inter-seismic monitoring of
deformation with the help of GPS geodesy indicates that the Motion along the Main
Himalayan Thrust (MHT) is locked along the Himalaya of Nepal and the stress that builds up
at the tip of locked zone is responsible for the belt of microseismic activity that runs
along the front of the high range. Motion along the MHT is thus probably stick-slip and
must produce recurring large earthquakes similar to the 1934 Bihar-Nepal event,"
reveals Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal produced by National Seismological Center. "The
absence of great earthquakes west of 85 E longitudes in the last 500 years points to the
matured state of seismic gap." Most part of Nepal Himalaya lie in this gap. Others, too, agree that Nepal is waiting to
face major earthquake any time soon. "Our assessment shows that there are areas of
potential sources of earthquake in Nepal's Himalayas. With a rector scale of 8.3 or 8.4,
the huge earthquake could take place in our part at any time and at any day," said
Amod Mani Dixit, general secretary of Nepal Society for Earthquake Technology Nepal (NSET)
and an earthquake expert (See interview). "We don't know exactly when it would take
place. Such quake is already overdue looking into the historical facts." Prepared by M.R. Pandey, G.R. Chitrakar, B.
Kafle, S.N. Sapkota, S. Rajaure and U.P. Gautam of Seismological Center in September 2002,
Seismic Hazard Map of Nepal states, "We have assumed a return of period of 500 years
for M 8.2 earthquake. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for a return
period equal to the return period of the greatest earthquake may be the most
representative probabilistic seismic hazard in view of the existing matured seismic gap in
the central Himalaya." Although many people who experienced the
major earthquake and shaking of the land in 1934 have already passed away, there are many
materials to recount the memory. According to Brahma Sumsher Rana's book on the great
earthquake, an unprecedented level of preparedness were shown by then administrative
apparatus including military, police and medical teams. Isolated from the rest of the kingdom after
disconnection of telephone line, the valley coped the destruction of great earthquake,
which took the life of two princes – daughter of King Tribhuwan and granddaughter.
According to Brahma Sumsher, 207,747 houses were destroyed, 8,500 died and 15,000 injured
due to the quake. Many reminders of great earthquakes are
vanishing including the reconstructed houses and towns. An earthquake memorial built at
Bhugol Park at the heart of the city still stands with all the records of
devastation. Realizing the seismic sensitiveness, then
prime minister Juddha Sumsher ordered to build the houses along the new road with seismic
resistance. Old Juddha Sadak or New Road and Indrachowk were the model city of quake
resistance but people have since dismantled all seismic resistant houses and erected new
concrete building that become death traps in case of big quakes. Lesson of Other Quakes Despite negligence in the early phase of
1970 and 1980s, people and policymakers seem to have realized how earthquake can turn the
well planned city into rubble within a minute of shaking and the houses erected for the
safety of individuals can become death traps. Turkey's and India's Gujarat Quake showed
that the buildings which were built ignoring building code is going to be the major
hazards causing heavy casualties. Likewise, well-planned and earthquake resistant
buildings can avert the casualty and destructions.
The recent Asian Tsunami also showed
how vulnerable developing countries are even after facing a number of natural disasters.
Although Californian earthquake and Kobe's earthquake in Japan shocked the areas, there
were very insignificant destruction of lives and properties there compared to similar
intensity of tremors in developing countries like Iran and India. Thanks to the early warning systems and
emergency preparedness plan, developed countries always avoid heavy damage and
destructions. Had the Tsunami hit the pacific coast, the damage would not have been like
the one in Indian ocean. Experiences have shown that poor are more vulnerable from natural
calamities. With the population of more than 2 million
people and haphazard growth of city, Kathmandu valley will see unexpected damage and
destruction in case of repetition of earthquake with the magnitude of over 8 Richter
scale. Damage Level The density of population and houses make
core areas of Kathmadu most vulnerable for destructions and casualties. "The census
of 2001 shows that the core city of Kathmandu has density of more than 500 Person per
hector (PPHA). In rest of the area of Kathmandu Metropolitan city the population density
is 150 PPHA or below. In twenty fast urbanizing VDCs surrounding the valley municipalities
the population density is below 60 PPHA except Gongabu VDC," said Padma Sunder Joshi,
an urban engineer. According to Joshi, out of twenty
urbanizing VDCs, ten has population growth rate of higher than 6 percent per annum. Prepared by the National Society for
Earthquake Technology- Nepal (NSET-Nepal) and GeoHazards International, USA, the Kathmandu
Valley Earthquake Risk Management Action Plan revealed that if an earthquake of the
intensity equal to that of 1934 was to hit the valley now, approximately 40,000 people
would die and 95,000 be injured. At the same time more than 60 percent of the existing
buildings would be destroyed, many beyond repair, leaving 600,000 to 900,000 residents
homeless. Moreover, 95 percent of the water pipes and 50 percent of the pumping stations,
treatment plants could be seriously affected hampering water supplies for several months.
Almost all telephone buildings and 60 percent of telephone lines are likely to remain
defunct for at least one month. Almost half the bridges and many narrow roads in the
valley could be impassable due to debris and damage. Gujarat's quake and the recent incident in
Sumatra confirm that the estimates aren't frivolous. The seismic record of Nepal seems to
suggest that earthquakes of the 1934 magnitude occur approximately every 75 years. The Geohazards International and United
Nations Center for Regional Development, Global Earthquake Safety Initiative helps cities
around the world recognize and reduce their risk of life-loss in earthquakes. The
study undertaken by it suggests that Kathmandu has the lowest performance among all 21
major cities. It does not only possess the highest risk of casualties in absolute terms
but also the highest per capita risk.
The risk of mortality from damaged or
collapsed building in Kathmandu is extremely high. According to GESI, the evaluation of
fire fighting preparedness, medical care preparedness and general preparedness reveals a
very low disaster response capability. The best mitigation options in Kathmandu are to
increase the quality of buildings, improve medical preparedness and strengthen the level
of emergency preparedness. Past experiences have shown that the
effects of earthquake can be reduced by the excellent infrastructures, road and airport
and the impressive first response to the emergency. With support from the World Health
Organization, NSET has already conducted the study on the vulnerabilities of hospitals in
case of major earthquake. It shows that only Teaching Hospital would bear moderate damages
up to the quake level of 9 Richter scale. Most other hospitals with 50 or more beds in the
valley will suffer from various degrees of destructions. Role Of NSET Following the establishment of NSET nine
years ago, the level of awareness among the common people about the earthquake
preparedness and devastation has gone up drastically. Although the earthquake of 1988
reminded the policy makers and government agencies about the possibility of great
earthquake looming in Nepal, the knowledge about the earthquake increased only after the
establishment of NSET at the grass root level. From developing earthquake risk management
action plan to geo-hazards setting of earth quakes to awareness generation at the school
level and training the middle level technical to build the earthquake resistant houses,
NSET has been doing various activities in different parts of Nepal. It also trains
volunteers and school children on earthquake risk and rescues. Along with the risk assessment of valley,
the NSET has already conducted the risk assessment of public schools, hospitals and
historical monuments of Kathmandu valley. This all helps to develop the level of
information about the earthquake among common people, policy makers and politicians. Thanks to the continued advocacy by the
NSET, the government recently announced the implementation of the building code in the
valley. Lalitpur Municipality has already introduced the building code in Lalitpur. There are growing senses of prevention as
well as awareness among the people about earthquake hazards. "We will develop the
mechanism to inspect the implementation of building code," said Prakash Man Singh,
Minister for Housing and Physical Planning. Although the implementation of the building
code is not going to have immediate results, it will change the possible scenario within
next five to ten years. NSET is also sharing its expertise developed in Nepal with other
countries of the region. Supported by the USAID/office of U.S.
Foreign Disaster Assistance, NSET has been implementing the program for Enhancement of
Emergency Response (PEER) in five countries including Nepal, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia
and Philippines. Preparedness For Possible Disaster From developing seismic zoning map of Nepal
to venerable areas of destructions, the government has also prepared certain programs
including in health sectors and national disaster management scheme to start emergency
rescue and rehabilitation works. Although Royal Nepalese Army and Nepal
Police have long experiences of rescue and rehabilitation of natural disaster including
the floods and landslides, they are developing a manual for the emergency preparedness
program for major earthquakes. The Disaster Management Division under the
Home Ministry- which has been working in the areas of rescue and rehabilitation for
more than three decades, is also preparing emergency preparedness programs to cope with
the situation in case of major earthquake. On the part of public awareness, the Home
Ministry has already formed a committee to celebrate the Earthquake Day on January 14
every year to remind the people about the great earthquake of 1934. "Although we have been handling the
emergency rescue and rehabilitation work annually in the areas of floods and landslides,
we don't have adequate resources to cope with major disasters like earthquake," said
Lekhanath Pokharel, a disaster expert with the Disaster Management Division. "We are
developing a contingency plan to meet the requirement at the time of such disasters." According to Natural Calamities Management
Act, the Home Ministry is responsible for the coordination and execution of any relief,
rescue and rehabilitation programs. There is a committee headed by the Home Minister. "We annually perform the relief,
rescue and rehabilitation works in small-scale mobilizing police and army at the district
level," said Pokharel. "The Tsunami has re-opened our eyes." Now the government sanctions about 30
million annually to provide the immediate relief to the victims through the district level
Natural Calamities Management Committees. "There are mechanisms in districts and
village level. We are yet to develop bigger institutions to handle effects of major
quakes," said Pokharel. Because of its geological vulnerability
caused by seismic activities, the country has been facing various types of natural risk.
The floods and landslides result in the most frequent disasters but it is also waiting to
see a major earthquake. According to the geological studies, Nepal is located in boundary
between the Indian and the Tibetan plate, along which a relative shear strain of about 2
centimeters peers, has been estimated. The plate is also sub ducting at a rate thought to
be about 3 cm per year. This existence of the Himalayan range with the world's highest
peaks is evidence of the continued tectonics beneath the country. As a result, Nepal is
very active seismically. There have been a number of devastating earthquakes within living
memory such as those in 1934, 1960 and 1988. The data collected by National
Seismological Centers show that Nepal records four tremors of 2 Richter scale everyday.
Likewise, there are three tremors between 2-3 Richter scale and one tremor between 3 to 4
Richter scale per day. There are five per month of earthquake magnitude of 4 to 5 Richter
scale and there are six tremors of 5 to 6 Richter scale per year. There is one tremor
every six years that has the intensity between 6 to 7 Richter scale. The study was based
on average frequency of earthquakes during the period 1994-1999. Interestingly, this
seismicity is far from releasing all the energy accumulated by the rocks of the crust in
Nepal due to the India/Tibet convergence. Many geological faults and thrust have been
created in the past as the two tectonic plates on which Nepal is astride have collided.
Major fault systems of Nepal Himalayas are Industs-Tsangpo Suture (ITS), Main Central
Thrust, Main Boundary Thrust and Himalayan Frontal Thrust. Department of Health Services Epidemiology
and Disease Control Division has already prepared Health Sector Emergency Preparedness and
Disaster Response Plan Nepal. The plan ensures preparedness by attempting to establish a
collaborative basis for standing readiness, which includes five basic elements: staff
safety, program readiness, operation readiness, collaborative arrangements and capacity
building. "The overall objective is to ensure that human survival and well being-
particularly the health needs of the most vulnerable groups- is assured in whatever
emergencies," said Dr. B. D. Chataut, director general of Department of Health
Services. "The primary focus of this document is to develop the emergency
preparedness and Disaster Response Plan." "We have emergency preparedness plan
to cope with natural disasters. We are activating all the health institutions to develop
them particularly in the valley," said Dr. Chataut. UN agencies have developed emergency
preparedness program long ago. At the end of 1999, UN agencies in Nepal initiated a
collaborative preparedness planning process to ensure that in the event of major disaster-
particularly severe earthquake affecting Kathmandu Valley, the UN and its international
partners will be able to provide effective and timely assistance to the people in need.
The UN Disaster Reponses Preparedness Plan 2001 prepares to prevent the crisis situation,
countering their destructive effects and ensuring the provision of humanitarian assistance
to those in need. Earthquakes According to the geological experts, the
Earth is formed of several layers that have very different physical and chemical
properties. The outer layer, which averages about 70 kilometers in thickness, consists of
about a dozen large, irregularly shaped plates that slide over, under and past each other
on top of the partly molten inner layer. Most earthquakes occur at the boundaries
where the plates meet. In fact, the locations of earthquakes and the kinds of ruptures
they produce help scientists define the plate boundaries. The scientific study of
earthquakes is comparatively new. Until the 18th century, few factual descriptions of
earthquakes were recorded, and the natural cause of earthquakes was little understood.
Those who did look for natural causes often reached conclusions that seem The goal of earthquake prediction is to
give warning of potentially damaging earthquakes early enough to allow appropriate
response to the disaster, enabling people to minimize loss of life and property. Scientists estimate earthquake
probabilities in two ways: by studying the history of large earthquakes in a specific area
and the rate at which strain accumulates in the rock. Scientists also study the past
frequency of large earthquakes in order to determine the future likelihood of similar
large shocks. According to geological studies, if a region has experienced four magnitudes
7 or larger earthquakes during 200 years of recorded history, and if these shocks occurred
randomly in time, then scientists would assign a 50 percent probability to the occurrence
of another magnitude 7 or larger quake in the region during the next 50 years. Another way to estimate the likelihood of
future earthquakes is to study how fast strain accumulates. When plate movements build the
strain in rocks to a critical level, like pulling a rubber band too tight, the rocks will
suddenly break and slip to a new position. Scientists measure how much strain accumulates
along a fault segment each year, how much time has passed since the last earthquake along
the segment, and how much strain was released in the last earthquake. This information is
then used to calculate the time required for the accumulating strain to build to the level
those results in an earthquake. Scientific understanding of earthquakes is
of vital importance to the nation. As the population increases, expanding urban
development and construction works encroach upon areas susceptible to earthquakes, a
greater understanding of the causes and effects of earthquakes could help Nepal reduce
damage and loss of life from this destructive phenomenon. At a time when the country is struggling
with insurgency, the devastation of the quake like the one witnessed in the aftermath of
Asian Tsunami would have irreparable damage in case the country fails to respond to it
timely. Although Nepal has started its preparedness very late, there are hopeful signs
that we can save people. But obviously the country is racing against the clock. |
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