National 1 (Spotlight Weekly)

Realization of Destruction

After a decade of efforts, the policy makers have started realizing the need for a long-term preparedness to cope with major earthquake

By KESHAB POUDEL

"Kathmandu valley lies in Earthquake zone and it is inevitable to have a major quake. We need technical and other international support to reduce the level of destruction of earth quakes," said Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, on January 15, addressing rally in Patan on National Earthquake Safety Day.

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"Guru! There would not be any quake there. Since Kathmandu valley is surrounded by mountains, those mountains will stop earthquake," said then prime minister Juddha Sumsher Rana responding to Hemraj Pandey's curiosity that Kathmandu might also have been hit by the earthquake on January 14,1934 the tremors of which they had felt during the hunting camp in Kanchanpur, 550 miles west of capital. In his book, Mero Kabitako Aradhana, poet Bal Krishna Sama who was a member of Rana's hunting team describes these conversations.

Actually, the earthquake of 14 January, 1934 turned the Valley into rubble as 8.3 Richter scale earthquake devastated entire valley killing 8500 people and destroying 207,747 houses. Juddha Sumsher Rana not only displayed his utter lack of knowledge but also exposed the level of awareness at that time.

Seventy years later, the seat in Singh Durbar is warmed by Sher Bahadur Deuba, who by relation is in fact a distant grand son of Juddha Sumsher Rana. But Deuba is well informed about the earthquake and requirement of international support to overcome the natural disasters like that of 1934.

Experts have already predicted that major quake is already overdue in this part of Himalayan region. Thanks to regular earthquake in and around the world, the policy makers have already started to prepare a long-term program to minimize the effects of calamity. Although the level of preparedness is still too low, there are some realizations.

From constructing earthquake resistant houses to emergency preparedness program, the government and non-governmental organizations are working together to minimize effects of quake. "We have high-level preparedness committee to mobilize volunteers and security personnel in case of major earthquake," said Purna Bahadur Khadka, Minister of Home and president of National Committee For Natural Calamities.

Geologists argue that as the earth plates move, grinding collisions between them trigger earthquakes and even build mountains. According to them, the Indian subcontinent, for example, has been moving inexorably northward for millions of years, colliding with Asia like a slow motion car wreck, the land at the edge of the collision buckling to from the Himalayas. Mount Everest and other mountains in the chain are still growing at a rate of about a half-inch per year.

At a time when the scientists do not see any immediate possibility for development of early warning system, only way to avoid the destruction is to change the present human habits including in the areas of building constructions.

Earthquakes are an unavoidable part of Kathmandu valley’s future. According to a study conducted by Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Project, Kathmandu Valley is located on the site of a prehistoric lake, which has been filled with the soft sediments that make up the floor of the valley today. These soft sediments tend to amplify earthquake tremors, like a bowl of jelly when it is shaken. In addition, there is a high probability of liquefaction in many of the valley's urban areas, especially near rivers. Liquefaction is a phenomenon in which water-saturated soil changes from a firm material to a semi-liquid material when shaken and loses its ability to support structures.

After Sumatra's earthquake and Tsunami, there is greater realization in the country about the necessary arrangements for the earthquake preparedness. In a life span of an average person, powerful earthquakes like that in Sumatra is rare, but in the vastness of geologic time, they are commonplace. "An earthquake of the recent magnitude, in this part of the world, has probably occurred about a million times since the breakup of plates," said an expert.

For the country like Nepal – despite the current critical phase of political instability and violence – there must be a well-prepared plan for the emergency rescue and response.