“We Will Receive Substantial Amount Of Rain In July”

-- Dr. Madan Lal Shrestha

Dr. MADAN LAL SHRESTHA, director general of the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), is a well-known meteorologist of Nepal. Dr. Shrestha also worked in South Asian Regional Meteorology in Dhaka for a few years. Shrestha spoke to KESHAB POUDEL and SANJAYA DHAKAL on various issues related to weather sector. Excerpts:

How do you see the present pattern of monsoon in Nepal?

Definitely, the weather changes always and it is the dynamic phenomena. If you look at present situation, this year’s monsoon has been delayed and weak. We had forecast it two months ago. Normally, monsoon arrives in Nepal on June 10. This year it was delayed by more than a week. Now the monsoon has been active and as of today (Friday July 1) monsoon is active in India. We are also feeling its effect especially in the mountain regions. Despite delay in initial phase, the monsoon is going on smoothly now.

What is monsoon?

Monsoon was used to be an Asian phenomenon in the past but it is global today. You can see monsoon in the United States and other Latin American countries. Monsoon is very important all over the world. It is not only important for rains but it is also important for the world dynamics of the atmosphere change. Monsoon gives a lot of rain and it also releases a lot of heat and that heat is necessary to run the atmospheric engine. Monsoon gives the energy to the atmospheric engine.

What is monsoon all about in Nepal?

In Nepal, monsoon means rain. Our history of studying the weather is recent as it was started only in 1968. We have been continually monitoring the monsoon pattern since then. We have not seen any major change in the monsoon pattern since then. In climatic way, it is good. If we talk about year to year release of rain, it changes. Weather is never the same as it changes from day to day. Weather is always different and every day and every moment is going to be different. That makes the field of meteorology very challenging. You can learn the climatology of the past but not weather of the past. That makes scientific community go for numerical weather prediction. It is taken under mathematical models. We have now models containing earth, atmosphere and ocean. So all these three are put it into the model and we try to predict what will happen tomorrow. Nowadays in Nepal, we do 24 hours weather forecast. If there is any special situation, we can give 48 hours outlook. This lies in the short range forecast. Other countries also conduct medium range (with the ranges from 3 to 7 days) and long range forecasts. We have another kind of forecast which we call seasonal forecast. This is specially used for agricultural purposes. People who are working in agriculture want to know how the monsoon is going to be this year. They want to know when monsoon will come and how much rainfall is going to take place this year.

This year the monsoon was delayed. A large numbers of Nepalese farmers are uncertain about the plantation of main crops? Is monsoon shower going to be lower this year?

This year the monsoon has been delayed and we had many clear days in month of June. Normally, our monsoon starts from the east and moves to the west. It does not always occur like this. Sometimes monsoon comes suddenly to whole Nepal. If you look at the eastern side now, the rainfall is more than normal. If you look at east of Pokhara, the precipitation is already more than fifty percent, if you look at Kathmandu region, the rain fall in June was about 80 percent. If we go to the west of Pokhara, he precipitation was less than 50 percent. This year precipitation is less but it does not mean that the situation will continue to be the same in July. Our studies indicate that monsoon will be more active in the month of July and we will receive substantial amount of rain (in July). During the four month of monsoon period, we have ups and downs. Sometime you have heavy precipitation. It is like a cycle. We call the low period of monsoon rain as break. That often happens. Normally, it happens in the month of August. This time it happened in June. We are confident that in the month of July, the monsoon will be active again.

We are also talking about the global warming. Does it have any implication on our weather system?

We have not found any changes due to the global weather warming on monsoon. From our observation from 1968 till today, if you look at the precipitation, there is not much difference. If you look at the temperature, it is increasing significantly. There is no doubt that the temperature is rising. If you talk about the whole country, there is 0.5 degree Celsius rise per decade (on average mean temperature), which is pretty substantial. If you look at Kathmandu valley, the increase in maximum temperature is about 0.8 degree Celsius per decade. In the whole of South Asia, the temperature has been increasing significantly from mid 1970s. Variability is much more in rain than in temperature so it is difficult to assess the exact impact on rainfall pattern. This is not only true in our country but other countries like India are also facing similar problems. Even in my study, I did not find any significant change on monsoon. As such, we cannot say that the global warming is affecting the monsoon. But in the long run, it might.

There is a growing realization in the policy making level that hydrology and meteorology play important role in sectors like health, agriculture and water resources. How do you see the reflection of this changing attitude with regards to your department?

We don’t find significant increase in our budget. The nation has its own problems. We are doing our best. Hydrology and Metrology is service-oriented department. Our staffs in Meteorology department have to work every day and round-the-clock. There is no break. Our weather forecasting division in Airport operates 24 hours. And this work is not only for us but also for global community. As a member of World Meteorological Organization (WMO), it is our responsibility to give our weather data to them. We have 15 real time reporting stations, which we call the synoptic centers, where they observe and report every three hours. As soon as they observe, they relay the situation to our main office and we relay that to New Delhi and from there to the whole world. If you want to know Nepal’s weather data, you can find them all over the world. In exchange, we can also avail of weather record of all places around the world. We also receive thousands of data from the world over. If we need to do 24 hours forecasting, we need data from Afghanistan and Indo-China region. To conduct medium ranging forecasting, you need to have the data of whole globe.

People always question the accuracy about weather forecasting in Nepal. How accurate is it?

Before answering it, I would like to remind you that we are dealing with meteorology as it is a science of nature. If you can understand the nature as a whole, you will be God. If you can forecast the weather one hundred percent correctly, you are the most powerful person in the world. Which I don’t think you can become. You cannot predict nature. People cannot have perfection. We will never have one hundred percent perfection in weather forecasting whatever the technology we use. It is possible that you can increase your prediction rate up to ninety percent or ninety five percent. In Nepal, we do forecast weather round the year and our forecasting is 70-75 percent correct. Our accuracy is around 75 percent. Problem here is that people look at that 25 percent. Nobody cares about our success but they notice our failure. This is natural. Our aim is to increase our efficiency. We have good manpower with high level background. We are lucky that hydrology and meteorology is in the same department. Both these disciplines are closely inter-connected. We have to forecast weather analyzing data from around the world and finally deliver meteorological judgment. Satellite picture is very important and now we have satellite over Indian Ocean. We are getting information from Geo-stationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) over the Indian Ocean.

Do you mean we don’t need to worry for the month of July?

There is no doubt about that. There is going to be good rain. If we evaluate the whole monsoon, this month of June did not have much rainfall. It can pull down the total volume of rainfall this year.

What percent of farmers use your forecast?

Frankly, we don’t know. We forecast our bulletin through all the mass media. We do receive comments from people far and wide. People from far away country also phone us and try to know the weather pattern of the country. We are trying to give information to farmers. If we can give accurate information on weather, farmers of the country will benefit. We consider starting seasonal weather forecast. We have very limited resources to do it. Thanks to the support of WMO, we are going to do it. This is going to be very useful for the agriculture community. If we are told what kind of information agriculture community want that will be good. Our prediction can be helpful in reducing the threat of natural disaster. In aviation sector, we have been working since 1968 with International Civil Aviation Organization and World Meteorological Organization.

What is the level of coordination with other agencies of the government?

It is improving. We provide weather forecasting during the monsoon to the Ministry of Home. We make daily bulletins to them. This is a kind of mitigation measure. We can work more on preventive side by providing the pattern of weather. As you know we are correct 75 percent time, it will help to prevent the disaster. Of course, we don’t have all the kinds of data and equipment but we can still provide information to prevent disasters. Our office is open to all. We would like relevant agencies using our forecast. We also provide mountaineering forecasting. We also have understanding with the Kathmandu University. Working together, we can share our information.