Could ICIMOD Help Nepal ?

By Dr. AB Thapa

Nepal , at present, is facing great difficulties even in properly conducting the studies to harness our vast water resources. Because, the projects identified to utilize our country’s water resources potential are too big in size. Moreover, some of them have direct bearing on life and property of millions across India and perhaps Bangladesh also. Thus, there is a need to begin concerted effort involving some of the world’s leading institutions engaged in research and studies of water resources to develop a new vision of our water resources development that would benefit our country and also our neighbors. Undoubtedly International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) could play very important role in generating interest of the world scientific community in Nepal’s water resources research directed to resolve various complicated problems that face our country.

Appreciation of Kosi Problems

At present neither our country nor our neighbors seemed to have any appreciation of the Kosi problems South Asian region would even be facing disastrous consequences if these problems are not solved in time. ICIMOD could play very important role as a catalyst in our efforts to conduct various studies to be made to resolve the Kosi problems.

The Kosi river known as the river of sorrow of the Bihar shifted from east to west over 12O km in the last 200 year. In the past about 10,000 sq. km. of lands had been laid waste as a result of the sand deposit. In course of shifting, many towns and villages were wiped out, and heavy losses of property, cattle, and human life were inflicted. Fortunately the embankments built few decades ago temporarily helped to check the lateral shifting of the Kosi.

The Kosi River brings every year an enormous quantity of sediments from its catchments in the mountains. Experts on Kosi have attributed the shift of the Kosi River channel to excessive sand load carried by the river. Leopold and Maddock considering Kosi behavior had stated that a braided stream will tend to shift laterally at a rate dependent on the rate of accumulation of material being deposited. As one course becomes higher than possible adjacent paths, the river would shift.

According to the prediction of renowned experts like Sir Claude Inglis the Kosi river is now on the verge of shifting to the east far away from its present course. The peoples of Nepal and India are heading for a natural

isaster of an unprecedented scale. But hardly anyone in Nepal appears to be concerned. Various institutions noted for their role in studies of the environmental problems and water resources of Nepal have not yet realized the extent of this danger. There is absolutely no mention about it in the recently prepared water resources strategy report that has led great emphasis on water induced disaster mitigation. It would be unfortunate if the Kosi swing to the east takes the life and property of millions in South Asia by surprise while the concerned government agencies and various relevant international institutions operating in Nepal would merely be silent spectator.

Mr. F.A. Shilling Feld, a renowned expert on Kosi study, had made a chilling forecast a long time ago “ The westward movement of the Kosi oscillation (in the past) is slow and is in a series of steps, each of which is attended with damage to property of temporary nature. The eastward movement (in future) of the oscillation will probably be accompanied with great loss of life and property.” It is hoped that we all will be taking up the Kosi problems very seriously and institutions like the ICIMOD would help us to realize the gravity of the Kosi problems.

Dam Safety

Nepal might be heading for a big dam disaster. Our government is on the verge of granting permission to a private developer to build 195 m high concrete faced rock filled dam (CFRD) which would be the highest in the world among this type of dams built so far. Needless to say that it is cheap to build this type of dam. Unfortunately our government has not cared to constitute a panel of internationally known competent experts to verify the reliability of the design of the proposed dam. It is very clear that tens of thousands of people would be killed if the West Seti Dam collapsed due to faulty design. Vast area of lands in Nepal and India would be laid waste with sand deposits. Certainly institutions like the ICIMOD set up to resolve mountain development problems can not distance itself from West Seti Dam Disaster issue that could trigger unprecedented water induced catastrophe in our South Asian region

Nepal’s laissez-faire hydropower development policy could have grave adverse effect on dam safety. It is difficult to visualize how we can be assured that the private developers would be sincerely interested in maintaining the high standard of workmanship and superior quality of materials which are fundamental prerequisite for dam safety that would invariably lead to higher cost. What is the guarantee that the private developers would not be tempted to cut a lot of corners in order to make hefty profit that could be disastrous in long run.

The West Seti Project will have a 195-m high concrete face rockfill dam ( CFRD ). This type of dams are found to be very competitive in cost but until recent time they were considered risky for heights above 150 meters

Needless to say that there is a need for great caution in adopting very high CFRD. According to J. Barry Cooks, Consultant USA ( Development in High CFRDs, Hydropower & Dams, Issue Four 1997), this type of dams are of empirical design and based on precedent design and experience. Unfortunately only very recently relatively high CFRDs have been introduced.

Canada Did Not Trust The USA

ICIMOD would be rendering our country a great help if it periodically organized seminars conferences on specific water resources issues. Nepal could learn how to protect vital interest of our country in course of conduct of negotiations with our neighbors on water resources development.

The Progressive Conservatives’ party Prime Minister of Canada John Diefenbaker was a nationalist. He took a firm stand on the Columbia River Treaty between the USA and Canada in defense of Canada’s national interest. The Columbia River Treaty was signed at the White House in January of 1961. Over the course of the following summer, the United States Congress held hearings in connection with the Treaty which ultimately led to its ratification. In Canada, the approval process was virtually halted. Canada realized after signing the Treaty at the White House that it did not meet the aspiration of the Canadian people. The Treaty effectively remained in limbo. Diefenbaker’s government fell in 1963 election contest with the liberals. Soon after, a new government was formed under the leadership of the Prime Minister Pearson who was regarded politically close to the USA. But he too never compromised on water resources matters in dealings with the USA.. Prime Minister Pearson agreed to step in to ratify the Treaty only after his meeting with the US President at Hyannis Port. In that meeting it was agreed that the Treaty would be implemented in a way which met the Canada’s concerns.

Nepal Should Not Rush to Compromise Optimum Development

Mr. P. Terrell an expert on water resources has cautioned us that Nepal should beware of unintentional give away in hydro development, and not rush to compromise the optimum development for the sake of quick deal. Astonishingly about 15 years after the publication of Mr. Terrell’s article in the HIMAL that carried his advice to Nepalese people, our government is now in the process of embarking on a bizarre plan in defiance of the opinion expressed in the World Bank financed study report to implement the 300 MW Upper Karnali Mini Project completely ruining the prospect to develop the 4,000 MW Upper Karnali Storage Project which undoubtedly is the best among all large hydropower projects identified so far in Nepal. ICIMOD would be rendering a great service to our country if it cautioned our government in time not to kill our best hydropower projects.

Nepal might be able to get not less than 45% of the total power in royalty from the private developers if they are properly briefed about the impressive advantages of the Upper Karnali Storage Project. By comparison with the mammoth 10,800 MW Karnali Chisapani Project the firm head of the Upper Karnali Project would be almost two times greater. It can be derived based on Stage A Optimization Study Data of the World Bank financed Karnali Project Study report that per KW installed capacity construction cost of the Upper Karnali Storage Project could be only about 70% of such cost of the project at Chisapani. It need not be explained that the firm power generation of the Upper Karnali Storage Project operating at two times bigger head would also be two times greater from the use of same volume of regulated flow of the Karnali by comparison with the Karnali Chisapani Project. Thus, Nepal would be justified to require that the private developer pay at least 45% power in royalty because such royalty would still be not exceeding the total additional generation solely from the use of the topographical advantage without involving further investment plus the normal royalty charged to developers of any other hydropower projects such as the Chisapani Karnali Project..

The total generation of the Upper Karnali Project could be about 10,000 GWh. Nepal could get about 4,500GWh in royalty. At present there is a big surge in demand for peaking power in India. The generation cost of such power could be about US Cents 12 per KWh. The amount in royalty from the developers could be as high as US$ 360 million per annum if it is assumed that the electricity would be sold at a price of only US Cents 8 per KWh.

In Conclusion

It would be the greatest misfortune if in near future the South Asian region is plunged into unprecedented water induced disasters. Certainly, regional institutions operating in Nepal like the ICIMOD established to help to conduct vital water resources studies should be playing in future more active role in protecting the genuine interest of our region.

(Dr. Thapa writes on water resources)