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Nepal can reap many short-term as well as long-term benefits by signing the Kyoto Protocol but the country is yet to ratify it. As the protocol has already come into force from February 16, 2005 worldwide, the process of cooling of earth has begun. Along with chances to benefit, Nepal also needs to exhibit its concern over the global warming by signing the protocol because the country is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which is likely to trigger glacier meltdown, retreats, GLOF, extreme weather swings and so on. Given its commitment to all the international environmental conventions, Nepal’s delay in ratifying the Kyoto protocol has been strange. For the past several years, the Kyoto has just been a matter of debate among policymakers and non-governmental organizations. Now the time has come to educate the general mass about the significance of this protocol and how it would be beneficial to them.

The first discernible effect of Nepal's ratification of the Kyoto protocol could be the benefit it stands to earn from its biogas plants. These plants developed over the years can turn into a boon for the country. As the country has now over 132,000 biogas plants with plans to build 200,000 more within next four years, Nepal can reap a huge benefit by trading carbon with other polluting countries.

Nepal is a country with the vast potential of hydropower production and other clean energy sources like biogas. It can generate its own resource to build clean energy projects.

According to an estimate, a biogas plant saves 5 tons of carbon dioxide from being released to the atmosphere - which would have been the case had any other polluting source of energy been used for its substitute - every year. And at current market value, a ton of carbon dioxide fetches US$ 5. That means, a biogas plant can generate about 20 to 25 dollars a year. “We have calculated that every biogas plant is saving about 5 tons of carbon dioxide every year. There are already 130,000 plants. Biogas makes a lot of sense in carbon trade as a single biogas plant saves 5 tons of CO2 and a plant can earn 20 to 25 dollars,” said Bikash Pandey, country representative of Winrock International.

Alternative Energy Promotion Center (AEPC) is planning to build 200,000 more biogas plants by 2009. From these plants, the country will save one million tons of CO2 every year by 2009 and they will generate money through carbon trading. “We expect that the revenue would be used to continue the biogas program,” said Pandey.

As per the Kyoto Protocol, the annex 1 countries (developed ones) need to reduce their carbon emission below the level of 1990 by 2012. And they can do so by two ways - either reduce their own emission level, which appears far-fetched given the importance of industries in their economic expansion or buy Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) from non-annex 1 countries like Nepal through a process known as emission trading (see Interview).

Ratification of Kyoto will qualify Nepal to participate in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The CDM is one of the Mechanisms under Kyoto to allow complying Annex I countries flexibility in meeting their Kyoto obligations. These countries can meet a portion of their obligations through purchase of carbon credits from projects in non-Annex I countries like Nepal that reduce emissions over business as usual (baseline).

Nepal has a large potential to develop CDM projects – any sector where use of unsustainable firewood or fossil fuels can be replaced with clean energy will qualify. The most advanced of Nepal’s CDM projects is the Nepal Biogas Support Program, which has already received a Letter of Intent from the Community Development Carbon Fund (CDCF) of the World Bank’s Carbon Finance Unit for the purchase of 1 million tons of carbon dioxide (1 ton of CO2 abated is referred to as 1 ER) for around $4.5 million.

The UNFCCC has created Adaptation Funds to assist countries to adapt to the negative impacts of climate change. Other funds, which are specifically targeted at the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts, are the LDC Fund and the Special Climate Change Fund. Nepal’s ability to access these funds will be greatly enhanced with the ratification of Kyoto. Nepal’s fragile mountain ecosystem makes its communities particularly vulnerable to climate change.

The alternative energy programs are planning to build one million biogas systems in future. When the biogas starts generating resources, it no longer needs to be dependent on donors as the old biogas plants can generate the revenue for new biogas plants. All revenue can be used for the development of other renewable energy as well. “We have calculated that the revenue from biogas is going to be 200 million dollars in next twenty years. That is a huge amount and is equivalent to the cost of 100 MW power projects,” said Pandey.

Biogas is not the only area. Nepal can also generate resources from promoting other clean energy sources like hydropower, solar and generating community forestry. By using the clean energy for transport, Nepal can reduce the carbon emission and make money. If trolley buses are promoted in the ring roads and other areas, Nepal will receive those benefits.

At a time when Nepal emits very low level of CO2 consuming nominal fossil fuel, it has a huge quantity of carbon to trade with the countries with excessive level of CO2 emission. Since there are few vehicles and access to road is still low, Nepal emits pollution mainly from deforestation, raising animals and paddy cultivation. On the basis of per capita pollution, Nepal produces less than a percent of developed countries.

“Nepalese are the lowest users of fossil fuel as well as lowest polluters. According to a study, 142 Nepalese citizen emissions is equivalent to 1 USA citizen emission,” said Sandeep Chamling Rai, Climate Change Officer, WWF Nepal Program.

Nepal as a non-annex country with no reduction obligation can benefit from CDM mechanisms. The CDM mechanism can be used for resource mobilization for national infrastructures.

“This is the right time to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and get its benefits. Nepal will immediately benefit under LDC Fund which will be used to buy information and networking equipment, HRD formulation/update of national polices etc. We are eligible for highly concessional loan facilities for infrastructure and capacity development to prepare and adapt to the impacts of climate change,” said experts.

The initial studies suggest that Nepal is highly vulnerable to global warming consequences. According to them, major river systems are either of glacial origin or in the impact zones and the GLOF hazards could be catastrophic to dearest infrastructures. Changing niches and up migration of disease vectors is going to be new challenges for public health. Since Nepal’s agriculture is based on monsoon, climate change will pose major challenge to the livelihood of millions of people.

These are not two isolated cases. Thanks to fragile mountain ecosystem, Nepal is prone to natural disaster. With high incidences of poverty, the country will have to bear additional cost for adaptation in the new situation.

As a mountainous country with several glacier lakes, the rise on the climate makes the country more prone to natural disasters. Thanks to the GLOF (Glacial Lake Outburst Flood) in the past, Nepal had already lost some infrastructures built in the remote parts of the country. The outburst of Dig Tsho Glacier Lake in August 1985 washed away Tame Micro Hydro power. “There are many cases of landslides in the Himalayas,” said Rai.

According to the study by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, glacier lakes are retreating at the rate of 10 meters per decade. The climate change may affect the monsoon pattern with unpredictable rainfall and hail storms.

With the support from donor agencies, Tsho Rolpa Glacier – Nepal’s largest glacier lake 200 miles northeast of capital – has been prevented from the outburst thanks to the early intervention seven years ago.

Since over 80 percent of Nepalese rely on agriculture, any change in the monsoon pattern will disturb the agriculture production. Nepalese farmers are not yet aware about the changing of climate over the years. Although people are yet to see any major changes in the weather pattern, it is in the process of making impact on the lives of people.

Over the 20th century the global average surface temperature increased by 0.2 to 0.6 Celsius. Globally, it is thought that 1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 was the warmest year in the instrumental record since 1861. The gauge data show that global average sea level rose between 0.1 and 0.2 meters during the 20th century.

Nepal needs program of action to be able to adapt and cope with the likely adverse impacts of global warming like extreme weather conditions and catastrophes.

In the world, the USA is the largest polluter of CO2 followed by Australia. Canada is the third largest polluter.

Global warming has direct effect on human health. There is now much literature linking air pollution with short and long term effects on human health. According to UNEP Assessment Report 2001, populations at risk from inhaled particles are those most susceptible to pulmonary and heart disease like infants and elderly people.

In Kathmandu valley, the premature death caused by indoor pollution is increasing alarmingly as most of the victims are children under the age of 5. Number of heart patients and patients with serious respiratory ailments are increasing. Despite such incidents, the country is yet to assess the situation.

Because of rising of temperature globally, some cases of Malaria – which is supposedly a disease of plain areas – have now started to be found in the hill districts like Kavre. The encephalitis and other vector disease are also moving northwards as the temperature is rising.

From health to weather pattern, one can see changes in environment but policy makers are yet to open up their eyes. Despite signing the UNFCCC on May 1992 and ratifying it on May 1994, Nepal has been straggling to ratify the Kyoto protocol.

Although the Department of Hydrology and Metrology is the first organization to have started the study on the implications of the global warming, other concerned ministries have done little work except publish some written reports.

As rising temperature will directly affect the weather pattern, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has shown certain initiative in doing research and publishing possible scenario for future on agriculture and flood.

Since the Ministry of Population and Environment is a lead Ministry to prepare the long-term programs for the Kyoto, its activities are yet to accommodate with other line ministries. From health to agriculture and forest to home, there is a need for a coordinated approach to meet the challenges of climate change.

“The Kyoto is just hovering in and around the bureaucratic hassles of Ministry of Population and Environment as if the Kyoto Protocol is exclusive to them,” said a senior official of Ministry of Science and Technology. “Few officials of Ministry of Population and Environment enjoy privileges of the Kyoto.”

Other officials, too, feel that there is no coordination between the ministries regarding the implications of Kyoto. As the Ministry of Law and Parliamentary Affairs is responsible to take up legal side, health, agriculture and home affairs have their own role; but these institutions have not been given any role to play.

“Ministry of Population and Environment is working together with the world community in the environmental protection endeavor. Nepal signed UNFCCC on 1992 and ratified in May 1994. The government decided in principle for accession to Kyoto Protocol in December 2004,” said Suman Sharma, official of the Ministry of Population and Environment presenting government views on Kyoto Protocol and Nepal recently. “Nepal believes on the linkage between global warming and climate change phenomenon and excessive carbon (CO2) emission."

According to the Ministry of Population and Environment, it needs technical, financial and human resources to build a sound national database. The ministry also stresses for a need to work out appropriate financial incentives and disincentives.

The Kyoto Protocol must be linked with the national development priorities. With more than 30 percent population living below the poverty line and agriculture-dominated economy, Nepal is struggling to build development infrastructures. As the implications of the global warming are going to be inevitable, the country must set national development priorities.

Nepal’s development priority is to increase agriculture production and rural employment with sustainable energy program and promotion of alternative energy. Nepal is promoting hydropower generation to expand commercial and rural electricity coverage. The government is working for energy efficiency and clean energy promotion.

“Timing is running out. We must all join force to curb global warming before its impacts become unbearable,” said Sandeep Chamling Rai.

The Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement setting targets for industrialized countries to cut their greenhouse gas emissions came into force on 16 February. The protocol was established in 1997 during the third conference of parties in Kyoto, Japan, based on principles set out in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change signed at the Earth Summit in Rio, 1992. The entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, which is a legal agreement, starts a new beginning as industrialized nations (Annex I) will have to reduce greenhouse gas emission to at least 5.2 percent below 1990 level by 2012. Governments who fail to meet their targets will have to pay penalties.

Nepal is the only country left in South Asia to ratify this protocol. “At present Nepal is under process to ratify the protocol”, said Dev Raj Ghimire, Secretary of Ministry of Population and Environment (MOPE) at a program organized by Climate Change Network Nepal (CCNN) - a coalition of different NGO and INGOs which includes ICIMOD, IUCN Nepal, UNDP Nepal, Winrock International Nepal, Clean Energy Nepal, KMTNC and WWF Nepal Program.

“At present, Nepal is responsible for about 0.025% of annual greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, we are among those at the highest risk from its negative impact due to our fragile mountain ecosystem and nature based subsistence livelihood,” said secretary Dev Raj Ghimire.

“The CO2 emission cuts agreed for this first Kyoto period, which ends in 2012, are not yet substantial enough to prevent the worst impact,” said Dr. Chandra Gurung, Country Representative WWF Nepal Program. “In the next round WWF believes that industrialized countries must agree to much deeper emissions cuts if we are to avoid dangerous climate change and keep warming to well below a 20 C increase (above pre-industrial levels). However, for now global community celebrates its first step toward reducing greenhouse gas emission.”

Despite delay in the ratification process, the process of launching different programs has already begun. To carry out a joint research on the impact of climate change on Himalayan region for the next five years, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF)-Nepal program recently signed an agreement. Since Himalayan region is more vulnerable to the global warming, the study will help to learn the implications.

Dr Chandra Gurung, country representative of WWF-Nepal and Madan Lal Shrestha, director general of the DHM, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to this effect amidst a program, according to a press statement issued by WWF-Nepal.

According to the agreement, WWF-Nepal and the DHM will carry out research on the effects of climate change in Ngozumpa and Khumbu glaciers to develop a model that will predict the behavior of these glaciers under a changed climate scenario in the future.

“The research will not only give further impetus to climate change research in Nepal, but will also help in developing new vulnerability assessment and appropriate adaptation measures,” said Dr. Gurung said after signing the MoU.

High mountain communities in Nepal have noted that glaciers are retreating at unprecedented rates. These extremities of the planet are in a real sense the canary in the coalmine, alerting the rest of the world to the extent of the changes that are coming.

The most obvious and visible impact is accelerated melting of glaciers and rapid formation of glacial lakes, a number of which have reached critical sizes and could result in devastating outburst floods (GLOFs). Less understood is the impact of climate change on the country’s monsoon rains. Any change there could drastically impact agriculture. Immediate ratification of Kyoto will open up opportunities for capacity building and support for Nepal in sectors ranging from disaster management, agriculture, forestry, health, and water resources.

The politics within the ministries, among others, is responsible for the delay in the ratifying of the Kyoto Protocol. Thanks to the suggestion of Ministry of Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs, the ratification of the Kyoto was delayed.

Actually, it is not the clause of act but the misunderstanding between the Ministry of Law and Ministry of Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs that delayed the process of ratification. When the Environment Ministry sought the opinion from the Law Ministry whether the Kyoto Protocol can be ratified through the present act or not, the ministry has given vague interpretation.

If the multilateral treaty like World Trade Organization can be ratify through an ordinance, there is no reason why the same principle cannot be applied in case of Kyoto protocol. For all practical purposes, the meaning of protocol and agreement is similar.

Thanks to the inter-ministerial misunderstanding and uncoordinated approach, Nepal has lost a great opportunity to ratify the Kyoto Protocol at last date. From the very beginning, the line ministry like Ministry of Population and Environment ignored the role of other ministries in the process of its implementations resulting in the present confusion.