March 25, 2005

Chinese foreign minister Li Zhaoxing’s forthcoming visit has a diplomatic significance

By KESHAB POUDEL

Following the royal action of February 1, foreign minister of People’s Republic of China Li Zhaoxing is going to be the first high-level dignitary to be paying an official visit to Nepal. At a time when western European countries including Nepal’s traditional friend Britain and India -Nepal’s another closest neighbor with high stakes in Nepal's situation - have suspended military support to pressure King Gyanendra to restore democratic process, the visit by foreign minister of People’s Republic of China - which officially termed King’s action as “ Nepal’s internal matter” – is diplomatically very significant.

FM Zhaoxing : Meaningful trip

Sharing more than 1400 kilometers long border with Nepal, China always considers Nepal’s stability and prosperity as vital to the security of Tibetan Autonomous Region. Sandwiched between two major powers India in South and China in North, geo-strategically importantly located Nepal is in an ever delicate position.

As Nepal and China are celebrating golden jubilee of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, this kind of higher-level exchange of visit was said to be in the process. Following the establishment of diplomatic relations in August 1, 1955 between the two countries, Nepal has seen many internal political crises. But every time China followed similar policy by terming all political developments here as internal matters.

Chinese foreign minister Zhaoxing is also reported to be carrying an invitation to King Gyanendra to be chief guest at Boao Regional Economic Forum, which is going to be held on April 22-24. A year ago, crown prince Paras had also paid official visit to People’s Republic of China.

As Chinese prime minister Wen Jiabao is paying official visit to India stressing the expansion of bilateral trade and economic cooperation, Zhaoxing’s trip to Nepal is meaningful because China often reiterates that it has security interests in Nepal. Unlike Nepal’s southern democratic neighbor, one cannot predict what Chinese foreign minister Zhaoxing will discuss in his two-day official visit beginning March 31.

At a time when Nepal continues to be pressured by the actions of United Kingdom and India to suspend or put on hold the arms supply to Nepal demanding the restoration of democratic process, human rights and lift the state of emergency, Chinese foreign minister Zhaoxing's visit will draw the international attention, particularly in India. Although Nepalese officials are yet to disclose their agenda, Indian media are assuming that Nepal will request China to supply the arms.

Former Chief of the Army staff and member of Raj Sabha Satchit Sumsher Rana in a recent program expressed possibility that Nepal may request China to supply arms but officially both sides have kept quiet on this issue. Interestingly Rana was chief of the army staff when Nepal imported arms from China in 1988.

Despite constant pressure to suspend military aid to Nepal, United States of America is yet to make any decision. In the backdrop of growing economic relations with India and strategic importance on Nepal, mandarins in Chinese are yet to say what other matters they will discuss in Nepal. The experiences have shown that strategic interest prevails over the economic interest. As usual, Chinese mandarins remain tightlipped over the issue whether they would provide military supply in case Nepal makes such request.

Vice-chairman of the Council of Ministers, Kirti Nidhi Bista, however, declined to comment saying, “I have no knowledge about China extending military support. China is always our good friend and good neighbor. It has always supported Nepal’s independence and sovereignty. They are willing to support us in all the fields.”

According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Zhaoxing would lead a nine-member delegation comprising high-level officials from his ministry. He will hold official talk with foreign minister Ramesh Nath Pandey and is expected to discuss bilateral matters, including economic cooperation, trade and tourism and matters of mutual interest. This is the first high-level visit by Chinese leader following the change of leadership in China.

To mark the golden jubilee festival of establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, Chinese ambassador to Nepal Sun Heping recently inaugurated Nepal-China Mutual Cooperation Society in Nepalgunj, 450 miles west of capital.

“China will always be a good friend, good neighbor and good partner of Nepalese people,” said Chinese Ambassador to Nepal Sun Heping. "China is ready to provide cooperation of any kind for the socio-economic development of Nepal,” said Heping addressing a program in southern border town. “China Nepal friendship and cooperation is not only in the interest of the two peoples but also in favor of the peace and stability in the region,” he said in the gathering.

There are predictions and calculations in diplomatic circle about the possible implications of the visit. Choosing this point of time by Chinese high-level dignitary is seen to be full of meaning and could have far reaching consequences given the geo-strategic position of this Himalayan Kingdom.

“This visit is taking place at a very crucial time in Nepal and there is certainly a diplomatic message here,” said a political analyst. “As long as China sees America - world’s only super power engaging in Nepal – it may avoid competitions with other regional power. If field remains vacant, China will definitely offer support.”

For Nepal, geographically, it has limited space to play between two major powers as said by Leo E. Rose, an American scholar, and, therefore, 'Nepal’s mere strategy is for survival'. “Nepal is yam between two boulders,” King Prithivi Narayan Shah, the Great, had said more than two hundred years ago describing Nepal’s geographical position, and it still remains valid.

“Present day Nepal thus perceives its critical geopolitical situation in terms of a long tradition as a buffer state and with some deeply ingrained attitudes toward the policies and tactics required to maintain its political and cultural integrity. There are choices to be made within strictly limited framework, and the consistency displaced by widely different groups of decision-makers over a long period is one of the more notable aspects of Nepal’s history,” writes Leo Rose in his book 'Nepal Strategy for Survival.'